Ask Ratbert

[Ratbert]

While waiting for something else to complete, I added them up. Unless I made a mistake,

18640 window stickers

81.6% percentage points

Taking the first row as an example,

7578 / 18640 is 40.6%

So, I'm not quite sure what 33.2 is a percentage of?

7578 / 33.2% = 22825

22825 - 18640 = 4185. Is 4185 the number of builds "in progress" for which there are build sheets but no window stickers?

I'd post the SQL that attempts to do those calculations (it's hairy), but the forum software won't allow that.

I ended up writing the whole thing in code instead. Much easier to understand / deal with. Here's the output:

Total domestic builds that have build sheets w/o a window sticker: 2,441

days between build sheet and window sticker	builds completed	%
0​	7,624​	40.9​
1​	1,800​	9.7​
2​	2,810​	15.1​
3​	1,649​	8.8​
4​	1,755​	9.4​
5​	907​	4.9​
6​	614​	3.3​
7​	462​	2.5​
8​	155​	0.8​
9​	145​	0.8​
10​	103​	0.6​
11​	121​	0.6​
12​	76​	0.4​
13​	51​	0.3​
14​	39​	0.2​
15​	45​	0.2​
16​	73​	0.4​
17​	47​	0.3​
18​	25​	0.1​
19​	19​	0.1​
20​	20​	0.1​
21​	17​	0.1​
22​	16​	0.1​
23​	20​	0.1​
24​	14​	0.1​
25​	18​	0.1​
26​	4​	0.0​
27​	1​	0.0​
28​	3​	0.0​
29​	5​	0.0​
31​	1​	0.0​
36​	1​	0.0​

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[bjm00se]

And the summary "rule of thumb" that I read from that is:

You have a 50/50 chance of getting a window sticker within 1 day.

You have a 75% chance of getting a window sticker within 3 days.

You have a 90% chance of a window sticker with 5 days.

And 10% of folks end up waiting more than 5 days.

1% of folks have to wait 17 days or longer....

 

[Ratbert]

1% of folks have to wait 17 days or longer....

That 1% if off since there's over 2k that have been started and not completed. I'm only reporting those that have been completed. My brain has yet to click on how to include the starts w/o finishes in this table. It might need to be separate.

 

[Nitehawk92]

That 1% if off since there's over 2k that have been started and not completed. I'm only reporting those that have been completed. My brain has yet to click on how to include the starts w/o finishes in this table. It might need to be separate.

Hey Ratbert, I just updated the JL Order Status Tracking page with my delivery date. I was a beginning of a month person. Line # 50 on the spreadsheet.

 

[Ratbert]

Hey Ratbert, I just updated the JL Order Status Tracking page with my delivery date. I was a beginning of a month person. Line # 50 on the spreadsheet.

I'm not following. What spreadsheet?

 

[Nitehawk92]

I'm not following. What spreadsheet?

Oh maybe that wasn't you. I don't have the link bookmarked at work, I will provide it when I get home. The site has about 65 or 70 entries that people entered their data about their order. The order date, Vin, information about the build. When the order entered different stages, Buildsheet, Window Sticker, D1, and stuff like that.

 

[Ratbert]

Oh maybe that wasn't you. I don't have the link bookmarked at work, I will provide it when I get home. The site has about 65 or 70 entries that people entered their data about their order. The order date, Vin, information about the build. When the order entered different stages, Buildsheet, Window Sticker, D1, and stuff like that.

The only spreadsheet like that that I'm aware of is @Membrain's for 392s: https://www.jlwranglerforums.com/fo...order-build-and-delivery-tracking-list.63626/

 

[Nitehawk92]

The only spreadsheet like that that I'm aware of is @Membrain's for 392s: https://www.jlwranglerforums.com/fo...order-build-and-delivery-tracking-list.63626/

Here is the link I was talking about. I thought when you asked people about their order dates/last 6 of VIN that you created this sheet.

 

[Ratbert]

Here is the link I was talking about. I thought when you asked people about their order dates/last 6 of VIN that you created this sheet.

Nope, I'd never seen that one before. Pretty sweet.

Note that you have to link to it or it simply renders w/o the ability to add your details to it.

 

[Ratbert]

Ratbert, can you tell how many 2022 RHDs have build orders and been completed. Getting pretty pissed that their is no word on mine ordered at the dealership 10/11/21. JC told me again today that it is in scheduling and should be built soon. Dealership is not responsive..

It looks like they've caught up on those with build sheets:

Instances of Right Hand Drive (RHD) over time:

day	build sheets	window stickers	in progress
2022-03-19	29​	15​	14​
2022-03-20	0​	1​	13​
2022-03-21	0​	0​	13​
2022-03-22	0​	0​	13​
2022-03-23	0​	0​	13​
2022-03-24	0​	0​	13​
2022-03-25	1​	0​	14​
2022-03-26	0​	0​	14​
2022-03-27	0​	4​	10​
2022-03-28	2​	3​	9​
2022-03-29	1​	2​	8​
2022-03-30	5​	0​	13​
2022-03-31	11​	7​	17​
2022-04-01	26​	19​	24​
2022-04-02	3​	6​	21​
2022-04-03	0​	2​	19​
2022-04-04	9​	8​	20​
2022-04-05	1​	3​	18​
2022-04-06	0​	4​	14​
2022-04-07	2​	1​	15​
2022-04-08	4​	4​	15​
2022-04-10	6​	9​	12​
2022-04-11	0​	0​	12​
2022-04-12	0​	4​	8​
2022-04-13	0​	1​	7​
2022-04-14	0​	1​	6​
2022-04-15	1​	3​	4​
2022-04-16	6​	8​	2​
2022-04-17	0​	0​	2​
2022-04-18	5​	0​	7​
2022-04-19	2​	3​	6​
2022-04-20	0​	0​	6​
2022-04-21	0​	4​	2​
2022-04-22	1​	1​	2​
2022-04-23	1​	2​	1​
2022-04-24	0​	0​	1​
2022-04-25	0​	0​	1​
2022-04-26	1​	1​	1​
2022-04-27	0​	0​	1​
2022-04-28	0​	1​	0​

 

[Ratbert]

How many 2021 orders remain to be built?

There are approximately 52,000 build sheets from approximately 58,000 orders placed in 2021. Nearly 90%.

Of those 52k build sheets 40k were domestic (the only build sheets where we have a high degree of confidence that we can reliably track window stickers). 98.7% of those have window stickers after taking out the first 255 that never got built.

Based on data that I gathered from the mid-2020 build sheets / window stickers I would expect just under 100% of the sequence numbers to have build sheets. That implies that about 10% of the 2022 orders placed in 2021 haven't started the build process. That seems really high, but my Jeep is in that group too.

 

[Ratbert]

I was hoping by my birthday 5/5 but don't look good

Sorry, I don't see anything that could be holding yours up. The cargo tub liner is rare (3.3%) along with grab handles at 7.9% of orders. Those are both getting build sheets.

Instances of MOPAR Cargo Tub Liner over time:

day	build sheets	window stickers	in progress
2022-03-19	1,405	1,277	128
2022-03-20	24	21	131
2022-03-21	15	10	136
2022-03-22	23	11	148
2022-03-23	40	0	188
2022-03-24	2	0	190
2022-03-25	19	0	209
2022-03-26	0	34	175
2022-03-27	2	82	95
2022-03-28	43	26	112
2022-03-29	33	28	117
2022-03-30	36	24	129
2022-03-31	6	12	123
2022-04-01	36	39	120
2022-04-02	0	19	101
2022-04-03	0	17	84
2022-04-04	45	16	113
2022-04-05	20	4	129
2022-04-06	17	16	130
2022-04-07	19	20	129
2022-04-08	25	11	143
2022-04-10	49	60	132
2022-04-11	3	1	134
2022-04-12	20	40	114
2022-04-13	36	10	140
2022-04-14	62	79	123
2022-04-15	17	15	125
2022-04-16	24	20	129
2022-04-17	0	14	115
2022-04-18	21	5	131
2022-04-19	30	32	129
2022-04-20	0	3	126
2022-04-21	38	46	118
2022-04-22	26	9	135
2022-04-23	21	15	141
2022-04-24	9	15	135
2022-04-25	26	9	152
2022-04-26	52	22	182
2022-04-27	31	22	191
2022-04-28	27	51	167
2022-04-29	11	12	166

Instances of MOPAR Grab Handle Kit over time:

day	build sheets	window stickers	in progress
2022-03-19	3,750	3,369	381
2022-03-20	50	27	404
2022-03-21	57	43	418
2022-03-22	54	42	430
2022-03-23	118	0	548
2022-03-24	3	0	551
2022-03-25	42	0	593
2022-03-26	0	107	486
2022-03-27	3	262	227
2022-03-28	74	54	247
2022-03-29	53	55	245
2022-03-30	61	52	254
2022-03-31	15	24	245
2022-04-01	72	79	238
2022-04-02	0	23	215
2022-04-03	0	23	192
2022-04-04	75	41	226
2022-04-05	56	14	268
2022-04-06	56	26	298
2022-04-07	40	30	308
2022-04-08	63	38	333
2022-04-10	115	133	315
2022-04-11	2	1	316
2022-04-12	32	66	282
2022-04-13	59	26	315
2022-04-14	147	208	254
2022-04-15	40	34	260
2022-04-16	42	67	235
2022-04-17	0	18	217
2022-04-18	40	9	248
2022-04-19	51	60	239
2022-04-20	0	2	237
2022-04-21	82	86	233
2022-04-22	34	20	247
2022-04-23	19	38	228
2022-04-24	14	33	209
2022-04-25	44	21	232
2022-04-26	96	50	278
2022-04-27	64	32	310
2022-04-28	54	73	291
2022-04-29	27	26	292

 

[Ratbert]

And the summary "rule of thumb" that I read from that is:

You have a 50/50 chance of getting a window sticker within 1 day.

You have a 75% chance of getting a window sticker within 3 days.

You have a 90% chance of a window sticker with 5 days.

And 10% of folks end up waiting more than 5 days.

1% of folks have to wait 17 days or longer....

I'm not positive that that's a valid analysis when considering that there are over 2,700 domestic builds w/o window stickers. That would explain why my SQL-derived numbers never added up to 100%. I'll need to figure out a way to render this in a manner that makes that more clear.

 

[bjm00se]

I'm not positive that that's a valid analysis when considering that there are over 2,700 domestic builds w/o window stickers. That would explain why my SQL-derived numbers never added up to 100%. I'll need to figure out a way to render this in a manner that makes that more clear.

With that large a disparity, I'm inclined to think there's some SNAFU, as with the European orders, where the sticker is simply not becoming visible via this servlet, than that there are huge numbers of Jeeps in some post-processing limbo state.

I could be wrong.

EDIT - another way to say this is we need to use the Window sticker data we HAVE in order to project the time taken from build-sheet to window-sticker. That data creates the asymptotic style graph you've seen.

We can't make meaningful projections for data we don't have.

Now, you could float the hypothesis that some large percentage of builds has, say, a 60 day interval from build sticker to window sticker. But if so, eventually that time-frame discrepancy eventually has to start showing up in build sheets. And we don't see any large numbers of build sheets on ANY of the long-time-frame date intervals we do currently have, up through 37 days. Why would 38 days, or 40 days, or 60 days have a hidden cache of builds?

 

[Ratbert]

With that large a disparity, I'm inclined to think there's some SNAFU, as with the European orders, where the sticker is simply not becoming visible via this servlet, than that there are huge numbers of Jeeps in some post-processing limbo state.

I could be wrong.

EDIT - another way to say this is we need to use the Window sticker data we HAVE in order to project the time taken from build-sheet to window-sticker. That data creates the asymptotic style graph you've seen.

We can't make meaningful projections for data we don't have.

Now, you could float the hypothesis that some large percentage of builds has, say, a 60 day interval from build sticker to window sticker. But if so, eventually that time-frame discrepancy eventually has to start showing up in build sheets. And we don't see any large numbers of build sheets on ANY of the long-time-frame date intervals we do currently have, up through 37 days. Why would 38 days, or 40 days, or 60 days have a hidden cache of builds?

I restructured how I calculate this table to include builds that don't have window stickers yet. This seems to make a lot more sense now. Note that I exclude everything that I found on my day 1 since that would severely skew the results. That last row is pretty disturbing.

days between build sheet & window sticker	builds completed	%	accumulated %
0​	8,381​	36.5​	36.5​
1​	2,085​	9.1​	45.6​
2​	3,061​	13.3​	59.0​
3​	1,689​	7.4​	66.3​
4​	1,778​	7.7​	74.1​
5​	928​	4.0​	78.1​
6​	648​	2.8​	80.9​
7​	498​	2.2​	83.1​
8​	170​	0.7​	83.8​
9​	173​	0.8​	84.6​
10​	125​	0.5​	85.1​
11​	130​	0.6​	85.7​
12​	88​	0.4​	86.1​
13​	71​	0.3​	86.4​
14​	65​	0.3​	86.7​
15​	58​	0.3​	86.9​
16​	85​	0.4​	87.3​
17​	62​	0.3​	87.6​
18​	42​	0.2​	87.8​
19​	30​	0.1​	87.9​
20​	35​	0.2​	88.0​
21​	32​	0.1​	88.2​
22​	30​	0.1​	88.3​
23​	30​	0.1​	88.4​
24​	16​	0.1​	88.5​
25​	19​	0.1​	88.6​
26​	5​	0.0​	88.6​
27​	2​	0.0​	88.6​
28​	5​	0.0​	88.7​
29​	7​	0.0​	88.7​
30​	2​	0.0​	88.7​
31​	1​	0.0​	88.7​
34​	1​	0.0​	88.7​
36​	1​	0.0​	88.7​
38​	1​	0.0​	88.7​
39​	1​	0.0​	88.7​
started but not finished builds​	2,590​	11.3​	100.0​

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