Ask Ratbert

[ogo]

So over the time interval from 4/11 to 4/26 (two weeks) they increased the number of build sheets by:

Month	build sheet increase in percentage points	approximate actual increase in build sheets - number of builds begun from 4/11 to 4/26	How many left to build?	At this rate, if nothing changes, how long until they're ALL built?
Oct 21	2.9%	360	750	4.2 weeks
Nov 21	3.9%	511	1661	6.5 weeks
Dec 21	2.9%	945	4243	9.5 weeks
Jan 22	5.4%	1660	7114	9 weeks
Feb 22	11.6%	2897	12441	9 weeks
Mar 22	7.0%	1748	20208	24 weeks

They really seem to ramp up the builds that are about two months old.

50% of the Jeeps seem to have build sheets by the time they're about that age, and that seems to be the period of greatest progress on the builds.

So, you have a 50/50 chance of your jeep being built at, say, 8 weeks (EDIT we're almost at the end of the month, so more like 10 weeks)

75% chance of it having a build sheet at 12 weeks (EDIT 14 weeks) But then it tapers off.

Now, if your jeep isn't built yet - it looks like they're really trying to get those October orders closed out, and you seem to have a near 100% chance of getting it built in the next four weeks.

November orders, a little longer: 6/7 weeks, with the 50/50 over under at 3 or 4 weeks.

December's actually the most stalled - 9.5 weeks at the current burndown rate. So, the 50/50 over/under is still about 5 more weeks for us December orders.

You can probably expect that the build rate on the March orders will accelerate. So the 24 weeks in the table is probably pessimistic.

So going with your logic my order was placed at the end of Feb (Feb 26th) I should be entering that 50/50 period in the next week or so as my order is hitting that timeframe in the next week or so. Which if I fall into the average, I may have a build sheet/window sticker sometime in the middle of May.

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[Oskaloosa Mailman]

So over the time interval from 4/11 to 4/26 (two weeks) they increased the number of build sheets by:

Month	build sheet increase in percentage points	approximate actual increase in build sheets - number of builds begun from 4/11 to 4/26	How many left to build?	At this rate, if nothing changes, how long until they're ALL built?
Oct 21	2.9%	360	750	4.2 weeks
Nov 21	3.9%	511	1661	6.5 weeks
Dec 21	2.9%	945	4243	9.5 weeks
Jan 22	5.4%	1660	7114	9 weeks
Feb 22	11.6%	2897	12441	9 weeks
Mar 22	7.0%	1748	20208	24 weeks

They really seem to ramp up the builds that are about two months old.

50% of the Jeeps seem to have build sheets by the time they're about that age, and that seems to be the period of greatest progress on the builds.

So, you have a 50/50 chance of your jeep being built at, say, 8 weeks (EDIT we're almost at the end of the month, so more like 10 weeks)

75% chance of it having a build sheet at 12 weeks (EDIT 14 weeks) But then it tapers off.

Now, if your jeep isn't built yet - it looks like they're really trying to get those October orders closed out, and you seem to have a near 100% chance of getting it built in the next four weeks.

November orders, a little longer: 6/7 weeks, with the 50/50 over under at 3 or 4 weeks.

December's actually the most stalled - 9.5 weeks at the current burndown rate. So, the 50/50 over/under is still about 5 more weeks for us December orders.

You can probably expect that the build rate on the March orders will accelerate. So the 24 weeks in the table is probably pessimistic.

So does this imply my order placed 10/11/21 will likely FINALLY get built within the next four weeks?

 

[bjm00se]

So going with your logic my order was placed at the end of Feb (Feb 26th) I should be entering that 50/50 period in the next week or so as my order is hitting that timeframe in the next week or so. Which if I fall into the average, I may have a build sheet/window sticker sometime in the middle of May.

I wouldn't really read it that way, since that 50/50 number includes a lot of jeeps that have already got build sheets, and yours isn't one of them.

Instead, you're in the pool of 12441 Feb build sheets that haven't been built yet. At the current rate, they'll build all of those in 9 more weeks. 50% of those will be done before 4.5 weeks from now, and 50% after 4.5 weeks after 4.5 weeks from now.

So, for planning purposes, your more realistic guess is that you'll get a build sheet in a little over a month.

(and remember all those other phases, actual build, "JB" adding MOPAR accessories, and shipping, happen after build. We don't have any good data on how long those take. Your guess from reading the forum tea-leaves is probably as good as mine.)

 

[bjm00se]

So does this imply my order placed 10/11/21 will likely FINALLY get built within the next four weeks?

If nothing changes, it does suggest that. FIngers crossed. Anecdotally, there are fewer and fewer October folks hanging out with us in the waiting room.

(and remember all those other phases, actual build, "JB" adding MOPAR accessories, and shipping, happen after build. We don't have any good data on how long those take. Your guess from reading the forum tea-leaves is probably as good as mine.)

 

[Ratbert]

...
(and remember all those other phases, actual build, "JB" adding MOPAR accessories, and shipping, happen after that. We don't have any good data on how long those take. Your guess from reading the forum tea-leaves is probably as good as mine.)

We have all of that up to shipping. That's the main reason that I'm gathering window sheets.

 

[ogo]

I wouldn't really read it that way, since that 50/50 number includes a lot of jeeps that have already got build sheets, and yours isn't one of them.

Instead, you're in the pool of 12441 Feb build sheets that haven't been built yet. At the current rate, they'll build all of those in 9 more weeks. 50% of those will be done before 4.5 weeks from now, and 50% after 4.5 weeks after 4.5 weeks from now.

So, for planning purposes, your more realistic guess is that you'll get a build sheet in a little over a month.

(and remember all those other phases, actual build, "JB" adding MOPAR accessories, and shipping, happen after build. We don't have any good data on how long those take. Your guess from reading the forum tea-leaves is probably as good as mine.)

I understand logically...but still sucks

Ever since I placed my order, my planning phase was only really going to start at the 8 week mark.

Each month that passes by without it getting built is another month in which I've put away another payment (either extra car payment or money towards down payment..)

 

[bjm00se]

We have all of that up to shipping. That's the main reason that I'm gathering window sheets.

Is window sheet before or after the "JB" "additional accessories" step? I would have guessed they stickered them before leaving the factory parking lot, but what do I know?

 

[Ratbert]

Is window sheet before or after the "JB" "additional accessories" step? I would have guessed they stickered them before leaving the factory parking lot, but what do I know?

The % in progress column is an indication of how long it can take from receiving a build sheet until it's "finished" and ready to ship.

I haven't implemented this query in code yet, so I'm having to copy/paste from SQL output. (EDIT: I formatted it more cleanly). Note that I excluded the initial big chunk of builds since those would skew the results.

Edit again: the tool that I'm using to do these queries wasn't rendering all of the rows. Too many to manually format, so here's the raw data. First column is days between build sheet & window sticker. Second is number of builds . Third is percentage.

0 7578 33.2
1 1742 7.6
2 2898 12.7
3 1532 6.7
4 1607 7.0
5 1031 4.5
6 610 2.7
7 596 2.6
8 162 0.7
9 152 0.7
10 109 0.5
11 118 0.5
12 82 0.4
13 55 0.2
14 39 0.2
15 42 0.2
16 68 0.3
17 54 0.2
18 26 0.1
19 19 0.1
20 17 0.1
21 20 0.1
22 13 0.1
23 22 0.1
24 5 0.0
25 28 0.1
26 3 0.0
27 2 0.0
28 3 0.0
29 5 0.0
32 1 0.0
37 1 0.0

 

[bjm00se]

The % in progress column is an indication of how long it can take from receiving a build sheet until it's "finished" and ready to ship.

I haven't implemented this query in code yet, so I'm having to copy/paste from SQL output. First column is number of days between build sheet and window sticker (a third are the same day). Second is number of builds in the in progress state. Third is overall percentage. Note that I excluded the initial big chunk of builds since those would skew the results.

18 days seems to be the max, but I would need to do an analysis to know for sure that there aren't other build sheets older than that w/o window stickers and w/o an explanation (e.g. the first 256 that were never built).

0 7578 33.2
1 1742 7.6
2 2898 12.7
3 1532 6.7
4 1607 7.0
5 1031 4.5
6 610 2.7
7 596 2.6
8 162 0.7
9 152 0.7
10 109 0.5
11 118 0.5
12 82 0.4
13 55 0.2
14 39 0.2
15 42 0.2
16 68 0.3
17 54 0.2
18 26 0.1

From just a quick scan, those percentage numbers don't add up to 100% - more like roughly 80% ?

Discounting the "missing" percentages -

At any rate, at least 50/50 or better of 2 days or less.

And looks like at least 90% of 5 days or less

About a 2% chance of 10 days or longer.

 

[Oskaloosa Mailman]

Had to request it, but got this from my dealer today:

Priced Order Confirmation (POC)
Date Printed: 2022-04-27 11:54 AM
VIN: 1C4HJXKN5NW116333
Estimated Ship Date: 2022-03-29 1:59 AM
VON: 52127922
Status: D - Firm schedule:serial number is assigned
Date Ordered: 2021-11-11 5:56 PM
Ordered By: S35414L
Vehicle: 2022 WRANGLER UNLIMITED SPORT RHD (JLUL74)
Model: JLUL74 WRANGLER UNLIMITED SPORT RHD 43,595
Package: 22A Customer Preferred Package 22A 0
EC1 2.0L I4 DOHC DI Turbo Engine w/ ESS 0
DFT 8-Spd Auto 850RE Trans (Make) 0
Paint/Seat/Trim: PAU Granite Crystal Met. Clear Coat 395
APA Monotone Paint 0
*A7 Cloth Low-Back Bucket Seats 0
-X9 Black 0
Options: RC4 Alpine Premium Audio System 1,295
NAS 50 State Emissions 0
CHD MOPAR Hardtop Headliner 525
ADE Cold Weather Group 1,145
4UQ T3AC 0
4NU Fuel Fill/Battery Charge 0
YGN 4 Additional Gallons of Gas 0
5N6 Easy Order 0
4EA Sold Vehicle 0
Non Equipment: 573 0
Special Equipment: 99765A 0
Destination Fees: 1,595 Total Price: 48,550
Order Type: Retail
PSP Month/Week:
Scheduling Priority: 1-Sold Order
Build Priority: 01

 

[Ratbert]

From just a quick scan, those percentage numbers don't add up to 100% - more like roughly 80% ?

Discounting the "missing" percentages -

At any rate, at least 50/50 or better of 2 days or less.

And looks like at least 90% of 5 days or less

About a 2% chance of 10 days or longer.

Yeah, that's one reason that I'm not a fan of using SQL to generate this data. It's really challenging to figure out how things like percentages don't seem to make sense even after triple-checking that the query seems appropriate.

 

[Ratbert]

Had to request it, but got this from my dealer today:

Priced Order Confirmation (POC)
Date Printed: 2022-04-27 11:54 AM
VIN: 1C4HJXKN5NW116333
Estimated Ship Date: 2022-03-29 1:59 AM
VON: 52127922
Status: D - Firm schedule:serial number is assigned
Date Ordered: 2021-11-11 5:56 PM
Ordered By: S35414L
Vehicle: 2022 WRANGLER UNLIMITED SPORT RHD (JLUL74)
Model: JLUL74 WRANGLER UNLIMITED SPORT RHD 43,595
Package: 22A Customer Preferred Package 22A 0
EC1 2.0L I4 DOHC DI Turbo Engine w/ ESS 0
DFT 8-Spd Auto 850RE Trans (Make) 0
Paint/Seat/Trim: PAU Granite Crystal Met. Clear Coat 395
APA Monotone Paint 0
*A7 Cloth Low-Back Bucket Seats 0
-X9 Black 0
Options: RC4 Alpine Premium Audio System 1,295
NAS 50 State Emissions 0
CHD MOPAR Hardtop Headliner 525
ADE Cold Weather Group 1,145
4UQ T3AC 0
4NU Fuel Fill/Battery Charge 0
YGN 4 Additional Gallons of Gas 0
5N6 Easy Order 0
4EA Sold Vehicle 0
Non Equipment: 573 0
Special Equipment: 99765A 0
Destination Fees: 1,595 Total Price: 48,550
Order Type: Retail
PSP Month/Week:
Scheduling Priority: 1-Sold Order
Build Priority: 01

An estimated ship date while in D? That seems unusual. On April 3rd I was told that my estimated ship date was January 3rd. That made me laugh since the woman also claimed that I was in D1. Like you, I'm still stuck in D.

 

[dahacker]

An estimated ship date while in D? That seems unusual. On April 3rd I was told that my estimated ship date was January 3rd. That made me laugh since the woman also claimed that I was in D1. Like you, I'm still stuck in D.

They may have set your order aside so that they can keep using your build completion reports in the Jeep weekly revenue financial presentations to Stellantis. I disappeared for a while and mine is in shipping now.

I mean they could just add build status to the Jeep Web Build API and they would save millions a year in customer service agents.

 

[Ratbert]

From just a quick scan, those percentage numbers don't add up to 100% - more like roughly 80% ?

Discounting the "missing" percentages -

At any rate, at least 50/50 or better of 2 days or less.

And looks like at least 90% of 5 days or less

About a 2% chance of 10 days or longer.

Just discovered that DbVisualizer wasn't rendering everything. That explains why the number of days seemed to stop abruptly / early. Edited / re-posted with the full output.

 

[bjm00se]

While waiting for something else to complete, I added them up. Unless I made a mistake,

18640 window stickers

81.6% percentage points

Taking the first row as an example,

7578 / 18640 is 40.6%

So, I'm not quite sure what 33.2 is a percentage of?

7578 / 33.2% = 22825

22825 - 18640 = 4185. Is 4185 the number of builds "in progress" for which there are build sheets but no window stickers?

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