Ask Ratbert

[DerLin]

I got a build sheet April 4 and still in JB status..my sequence is 110748...Is this out of the ordinary

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[CWHallman]

I got a build sheet April 4 and still in JB status..my sequence is 110748...Is this out of the ordinary

Mine was in JB 30 days, it is a XR .

 

[DerLin]

Yeah..it's a XR..4 more days and I'm at 30.. hope that's the magic number

 

[Ratbert]

I got a build sheet April 4 and still in JB status..my sequence is 110748...Is this out of the ordinary

That's quite a while in JB. The only thing special seems to be the XR package.

 

[Ratbert]

I've written the code that determines approximate order date for any sequence number and I'm able to calculate "days from order to build" stats from that per day. Now I've just got to group those into weeks so it's not so overwhelming. It's challenging, but much more than I had expected.

 

[Stumeat]

Hey @Ratbert , can you pull how many 392's have been ordered overall?

 

[dahacker]

I've written the code that determines approximate order date for any sequence number and I'm able to calculate "days from order to build" stats from that per day. Now I've just got to group those into weeks so it's not so overwhelming. It's challenging, but much more than I had expected.

You may be able to fit the data into a 2nd order polynomial with X being days since order and Y being probability of being built. I’m not sure how you adjust for the time before production started. Maybe you throw out Oct-Dec order data when calculating the fit. People are always asking how long, and that equation will come closest to answering it.

 

[Grani Rubi]

Aloha @Ratbert! Sorry if you've already done this, but can you run numbers on how long the 4xe's take to go from buildsheet to sticker? Based on what I've read, ALL 4xe's go to JB for custom hood decals (plus any other additional parts ordered). Just wondering the typical time us 4xe owners should anticipate waiting for our stickers after buildsheet are issued.

Thanks again for all that you do.

 

[Ratbert]

Ok, this is what I've come up with so far. This is a week-by-week breakdown and all of the stats are in weeks. Note that % complete doesn't take international orders into consideration, so it's just a ballpark number.

This is using the croudsourced order date details that forum members have contributed to.

edit: removed the table due to some significant flaws that were identified by @bjm00se.

 

[bjm00se]

Ok, this is what I've come up with so far. This is a week-by-week breakdown and all of the stats are in weeks. Note that % complete doesn't take international orders into consideration, so it's just a ballpark number.

This is using the croudsourced order date details that forum members have contributed to.

...

This is cool, but I admit to a certain skepticism; that uniform monotonic progression downward in number of weeks looks suspicious to my eyes....

 

[Ratbert]

This is cool, but I admit to a certain skepticism; that uniform monotonic progression downward in number of weeks looks suspicious to my eyes....

It makes sense though. If only 7.5 percent of the sequence numbers for a week have been built and that week is only a few weeks in the past then any built in that week will have a significant impact on the overall stats for that week.

Any thoughts on different ways to slice it that might be more meaningful?

 

[bjm00se]

It makes sense though. If only 7.5 percent of the sequence numbers for a week have been built and that week is only a few weeks in the past then any built in that week will have a significant impact on the overall stats for that week.

Any thoughts on different ways to slice it that might be more meaningful?

I can see where the max build sheet and max window sticker will go up by one-per-week until the very last one is built.

But the minimum build-sheet ought to be a much smaller number.

I mean, didn't *any* october orders get a build-sheet in december? If there was even one, then I'd expect that number to be 10.

What it looks like is your earliest possible build-sheet date is 3/27, even if the build sheet was actually available before that?

 

[bjm00se]

I guess what I'm saying is - the chart ends at 3/27, but maybe, instead, it should be *starting* then? (or one week before that)

 

[Ratbert]

I guess what I'm saying is - the chart ends at 3/27, but maybe, instead, it should be *starting* then? (or one week before that)

Yeah, you're right. I neglected to take into account that I didn't start running my extract until March. I'll need to restructure this to base everything off of MDH, but even that has some weirdness.

 

[Ratbert]

Number of weeks-oriented stats are derived from window sticker MDHs (aka 'birthday') for domestic vehicles. Started and not started are from domestic as well as international build sheets.

To be clear: these stats are "so far" (not all Jeeps for a given week have been built) and don't necessarily indicate how long it'll take for any specific Jeep to be built.

I have all of April's numbers, but I don't know the sequence numbers for when April ended / May started, so I can't break those sequence numbers up into days / weeks.

edit: I'll need to somehow deal with production not starting until Dec 16th(?).

order week	min weeks	avg weeks	max weeks	started	not started
2021-10-03	11​	18​	29​	3,369​	232​
2021-10-10	10​	15​	28​	2,740​	61​
2021-10-17	9​	16​	27​	2,571​	230​
2021-10-24	8​	15​	26​	2,692​	109​
2021-10-31	7​	15​	25​	2,348​	269​
2021-11-07	6​	13​	24​	2,687​	366​
2021-11-14	5​	11​	23​	2,790​	263​
2021-11-21	4​	11​	22​	2,668​	385​
2021-11-28	3​	9​	21​	5,502​	646​
2021-12-05	2​	10​	20​	6,893​	465​
2021-12-12	3​	10​	19​	6,866​	492​
2021-12-19	1​	10​	18​	6,239​	1,119​
2021-12-26	1​	9​	17​	5,604​	1,637​
2022-01-02	2​	9​	16​	5,824​	1,114​
2022-01-09	1​	8​	15​	5,533​	1,405​
2022-01-16	1​	8​	14​	5,545​	1,393​
2022-01-23	0​	7​	13​	5,250​	1,688​
2022-01-30	0​	7​	12​	4,138​	2,228​
2022-02-06	1​	7​	11​	4,254​	1,991​
2022-02-13	1​	7​	10​	3,576​	2,669​
2022-02-20	0​	6​	9​	2,944​	3,301​
2022-02-27	1​	6​	8​	1,658​	3,604​
2022-03-06	1​	6​	7​	1,042​	4,055​
2022-03-13	2​	6​	6​	1,133​	3,964​
2022-03-20	1​	5​	5​	747​	4,350​
2022-03-27	0​	4​	4​	​	​

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