Ask Ratbert

Ratbert · May 12, 2022

jeninchicago said:
Wonder how I can make my January order one of those that is in progress lol. Why such a low % of Jan in progress vs March and April?

I'm thinking that this makes more sense. Percentages on that last column was too confusing / irrelevant. The lower number of builds in progress for earlier months could mean a lot of things, but there's significantly fewer left to build in those earlier months.

month	# sequence numbers	# build sheets	% w/build sheets	# domestic build sheets	# domestic window stickers	# domestic in progress
Oct 2021	12,145	11,536	95.0	10,087	10,035	52
Nov 2021	12,725	11,613	91.3	10,452	10,266	186
Dec 2021	32,959	29,635	89.9	19,942	19,675	267
Jan 2022	30,743	25,200	82.0	17,930	17,596	334
Feb 2022	24,977	15,944	63.8	11,175	10,625	550
Mar 2022	22,570	6,984	30.9	5,556	4,566	990
Apr 2022	29,779	3,867	13.0	3,688	2,730	958
May 2022		21		18	2	16

Ratbert · May 12, 2022

John VonJeep said:
Jeep is so full of ?. At one point they claimed they had built 30,000 Tuscadero JLs, which would have amounted to ~25% of production during the relevant time period. Simply impossible, yet no auto journalist even questioned it.

This shows Tuscadero accounting for around 7% of production, which is much more believable.

Maybe(?) it was at one point, but it's down to ~4% now. I don't have this query in code, so this isn't formatted as nicely as others:

Black Clear Coat 23,032 21.9
Bright White Clear Coat 22,305 21.2
Granite Crystal Met. Clear Coat 13,390 12.8
Sting-Gray Clear Coat 12,800 12.2
Sarge Green Clear Coat 7,042 6.7
Firecracker Red C/C 6,947 6.6
Hydro Blue Pearl Coat 6,806 6.5
Snazzberry Pearl Coat 4,039 3.8
Limited Edition Tuscadero Pearl Coat 4,017 3.8
Silver Zynith Clear Coat 3,577 3.4
High Velocity Clear Coat 940 0.9
Limited Edition Gobi Clear Coat 105 0.1
Billet Silver Metallic Clear Coat 17 0.0

TriumphJeepster · May 12, 2022

Ratbert said:
Maybe(?) it was at one point, but it's down to ~4% now. I don't have this query in code, so this isn't formatted as nicely as others:

Black Clear Coat 23,032 21.9
Bright White Clear Coat 22,305 21.2
Granite Crystal Met. Clear Coat 13,390 12.8
Sting-Gray Clear Coat 12,800 12.2
Sarge Green Clear Coat 7,042 6.7
Firecracker Red C/C 6,947 6.6
Hydro Blue Pearl Coat 6,806 6.5
Snazzberry Pearl Coat 4,039 3.8
Limited Edition Tuscadero Pearl Coat 4,017 3.8
Silver Zynith Clear Coat 3,577 3.4
High Velocity Clear Coat 940 0.9
Limited Edition Gobi Clear Coat 105 0.1
Billet Silver Metallic Clear Coat 17 0.0

105 Gobi, and 96 of them (making that up) are probably on forum.

bjm00se · May 16, 2022

Hi @Ratbert, much has been made lately of the V6 shortage and order limitations.

On another thread somewhere, (I can't find it now) someone scraped some analysis from cryptostickers, and seemed to show the V6 orders asymptotically tapering off vs. time.

I wonder if you could do one of those build-sheet/window-sticker group by day spreadsheets for V6 Rubicons?

Thanks.

Ratbert · May 16, 2022

bjm00se said:
Hi @Ratbert, much has been made lately of the V6 shortage and order limitations.

On another thread somewhere, (I can't find it now) someone scraped some analysis from cryptostickers, and seemed to show the V6 orders asymptotically tapering off vs. time.

I wonder if you could do one of those build-sheet/window-sticker group by day spreadsheets for V6 Rubicons?

Thanks.

I just posted some details about that. Note that my code-based query is currently pretty dumb in that it can't deal with "this part and (this part or this part)", so that's just 3.6L V6 24V VVT Engine Upg I w/ESS. ANDs and ORs are easy until you start trying to combine / parse them in a URL in a logical manner.

bjm00se · May 16, 2022

Ratbert said:
I just posted some details about that. Note that my code-based query is currently pretty dumb in that it can't deal with "this part and (this part or this part)", so that's just 3.6L V6 24V VVT Engine Upg I w/ESS. ANDs and ORs are easy until you start trying to combine / parse them in a URL in a logical manner.

Cool. I'm sure you've said it before, but can you remind me what the "started" and "not started" columns are measuring?

Ratbert · May 16, 2022

bjm00se said:
Cool. I'm sure you've said it before, but can you remind me what the "started" and "not started" columns are measuring?

I should probably rename those to w/build sheet and w/o build sheet.

I need to figure out a better way to represent this data. This table gives a false impression since it doesn't clearly convey that there's a huge chunk of Jeeps that haven't received build sheets yet. I also don't know if/when they will.

ChuckQue · May 17, 2022

@Ratbert I know I saw you recently posted the numbers for eco diesels. Did you observe a ramp up related to those when compared to the recent restrictions on other motors?

HighTide · May 18, 2022

@Ratbert - How is High Tide production going? Wondering what percent ordered have build sheets and stickers and what the average wait time is as best you can tell. It's been 11 weeks since I ordered.

Bokonon_FL · May 19, 2022

Ratbert said:
I was doing those queries through SQL last time and apparently really screwed something up. I've recently modified my code to help with these types of "this and that" queries. This makes a lot more sense, but the numbers are still pretty small.

Instances of 2.0L I4 DOHC DI Turbo Engine w/ ESS AND Xtreme Recon 35" Tire Package over time:

day build sheets window stickers in progress
2022-03-19
10
0
10
2022-03-20
0
0
10
2022-03-21
1
0
11
2022-03-22
0
0
11
2022-03-23
0
0
11
2022-03-24
0
0
11
2022-03-25
0
0
11
2022-03-26
0
0
11
2022-03-27
0
0
11
2022-03-28
1
0
12
2022-03-29
0
0
12
2022-03-30
0
0
12
2022-03-31
0
0
12
2022-04-01
0
0
12
2022-04-02
0
0
12
2022-04-03
0
0
12
2022-04-04
0
1
11
2022-04-05
0
0
11
2022-04-06
0
0
11
2022-04-07
0
0
11
2022-04-08
0
0
11
2022-04-10
0
0
11
2022-04-11
0
0
11
2022-04-12
0
0
11
2022-04-13
0
0
11
2022-04-14
0
0
11
2022-04-15
0
0
11
2022-04-16
0
1
10
2022-04-17
0
0
10
2022-04-18
0
0
10
2022-04-19
0
0
10
2022-04-20
0
0
10
2022-04-21
3
0
13
2022-04-22
1
0
14
2022-04-23
1
0
15
2022-04-24
0
1
14
2022-04-25
3
0
17
2022-04-26
3
1
19
2022-04-27
3
0
22
2022-04-28
1
0
23
2022-04-29
2
0
25
2022-04-30
0
2
23
2022-05-01
1
1
23
2022-05-02
3
0
26
2022-05-03
6
1
31
2022-05-04
12
3
40
2022-05-05
4
0
44
2022-05-06
13
5
52
2022-05-07
0
3
49
2022-05-08
4
3
50
2022-05-09
14
15
49
2022-05-10
19
10
58
2022-05-11
22
11
69
2022-05-12
1
0
70
total
128
58

Thanks for this! I also ordered this combo on a Willys with SOT. Ordered May 3rd.
Looks like production is ramping up in recent days.

Ratbert · May 19, 2022

ChuckQue said:
@Ratbert I know I saw you recently posted the numbers for eco diesels. Did you observe a ramp up related to those when compared to the recent restrictions on other motors?

The last column is the number of additional weeks for diesels. I can't really get statistics for a month until we know what its logical end is (that's when I can somewhat know how to break it up by week), so I won't have May until it ends.

order week	min weeks	avg weeks	max weeks	w/build sheet	w/o build sheet	avg weeks comparison
2021-10-07	1	6.4	21	4,961	242	-0.5
2021-10-14	1	7.0	21	2,682	209	+0.5
2021-10-21	1	7.1	21	2,760	131	+0.5
2021-10-28	1	8.2	21	2,788	110	+1.2
2021-11-04	1	8.9	21	2,592	299	+1.3
2021-11-11	1	7.0	21	2,728	163	+0.1
2021-11-18	1	8.1	21	2,621	270	-0.4
2021-11-25	1	7.7	21	3,466	354	+0.1
2021-12-02	1	7.2	21	7,187	304	+1.1
2021-12-09	1	9.3	21	7,001	490	+2.1
2021-12-16	1	10.3	21	6,654	837	+2.5
2021-12-23	2	10.2	20	5,124	869	+1.1
2021-12-30	0	9.4	19	6,349	1,040	+1.7
2022-01-06	2	8.9	18	6,410	906	+0.5
2022-01-13	0	8.5	17	6,211	1,105	+2.1
2022-01-20	0	8.0	16	5,721	1,595	+2.5
2022-01-27	0	7.2	15	5,415	1,491	+1.0
2022-02-03	2	7.9	14	4,787	1,454	-0.0
2022-02-10	1	7.9	13	4,103	2,138	+0.7
2022-02-17	0	7.3	12	3,884	2,357	+1.4
2022-02-24	0	8.0	11	3,129	2,595	+0.1
2022-03-03	1	7.9	10	2,135	2,771	-0.8
2022-03-10	1	7.4	9	2,054	2,852	-0.9
2022-03-17	1	6.4	8	1,349	3,557	-0.7
2022-03-24	1	5.9	7	1,735	3,171	-0.8
2022-03-31	0	5.1	6	1,918	4,743	-0.8
2022-04-07	1	4.2	5	1,919	5,172	-0.5
2022-04-14	1	3.5	4	1,055	6,036	-0.3
2022-04-21	0	3.0	3	902	6,189	-0.1
2022-04-28	0	2.0	2	258		+0.2

Ratbert · May 19, 2022

HighTide said:
@Ratbert - How is High Tide production going? Wondering what percent ordered have build sheets and stickers and what the average wait time is as best you can tell. It's been 11 weeks since I ordered.

Interesting February numbers. Almost 4 weeks faster than average?!?!

order week	min weeks	avg weeks	max weeks	w/build sheet	w/o build sheet	avg weeks comparison
2021-10-07	1	6.4	21	4,961	242	+0.0
2021-10-14	1	7.0	21	2,682	209	+0.0
2021-10-21	1	7.1	21	2,760	131	+0.0
2021-10-28	1	8.2	21	2,788	110	+0.0
2021-11-04	1	8.9	21	2,592	299	+0.0
2021-11-11	1	7.0	21	2,728	163	+0.0
2021-11-18	1	8.1	21	2,621	270	+0.0
2021-11-25	1	7.7	21	3,466	354	+0.0
2021-12-02	1	7.2	21	7,187	304	+0.0
2021-12-09	1	9.3	21	7,001	490	+0.0
2021-12-16	1	10.3	21	6,654	837	+0.0
2021-12-23	2	10.2	20	5,124	869	+0.0
2021-12-30	0	9.4	19	6,349	1,040	+0.0
2022-01-06	2	8.9	18	6,410	906	+0.0
2022-01-13	0	8.5	17	6,211	1,105	+0.0
2022-01-20	0	8.0	16	5,721	1,595	+1.7
2022-01-27	0	7.2	15	5,415	1,491	+0.0
2022-02-03	2	7.9	14	4,787	1,454	-3.9
2022-02-10	1	7.9	13	4,103	2,138	-2.9
2022-02-17	0	7.3	12	3,884	2,357	-2.4
2022-02-24	0	8.0	11	3,129	2,595	-1.7
2022-03-03	1	7.9	10	2,135	2,771	-1.7
2022-03-10	1	7.4	9	2,054	2,852	-0.8
2022-03-17	1	6.4	8	1,349	3,557	-0.7
2022-03-24	1	5.9	7	1,735	3,171	-0.5
2022-03-31	0	5.1	6	1,918	4,743	+0.3
2022-04-07	1	4.2	5	1,919	5,172	-0.3
2022-04-14	1	3.5	4	1,055	6,036	-0.3
2022-04-21	0	3.0	3	902	6,189	-0.4
2022-04-28	0	2.0	2	258		-0.5

ChuckQue · May 19, 2022

Ratbert said:
The last column is the number of additional weeks for diesels. I can't really get statistics for a month until we know what its logical end is (that's when I can somewhat know how to break it up by week), so I won't have May until it ends.

order week min weeks avg weeks max weeks w/build sheet w/o build sheet avg weeks comparison
2021-10-07
1
6.4
21
4,961
242
-0.5
2021-10-14
1
7.0
21
2,682
209
+0.5
2021-10-21
1
7.1
21
2,760
131
+0.5
2021-10-28
1
8.2
21
2,788
110
+1.2
2021-11-04
1
8.9
21
2,592
299
+1.3
2021-11-11
1
7.0
21
2,728
163
+0.1
2021-11-18
1
8.1
21
2,621
270
-0.4
2021-11-25
1
7.7
21
3,466
354
+0.1
2021-12-02
1
7.2
21
7,187
304
+1.1
2021-12-09
1
9.3
21
7,001
490
+2.1
2021-12-16
1
10.3
21
6,654
837
+2.5
2021-12-23
2
10.2
20
5,124
869
+1.1
2021-12-30
0
9.4
19
6,349
1,040
+1.7
2022-01-06
2
8.9
18
6,410
906
+0.5
2022-01-13
0
8.5
17
6,211
1,105
+2.1
2022-01-20
0
8.0
16
5,721
1,595
+2.5
2022-01-27
0
7.2
15
5,415
1,491
+1.0
2022-02-03
2
7.9
14
4,787
1,454
-0.0
2022-02-10
1
7.9
13
4,103
2,138
+0.7
2022-02-17
0
7.3
12
3,884
2,357
+1.4
2022-02-24
0
8.0
11
3,129
2,595
+0.1
2022-03-03
1
7.9
10
2,135
2,771
-0.8
2022-03-10
1
7.4
9
2,054
2,852
-0.9
2022-03-17
1
6.4
8
1,349
3,557
-0.7
2022-03-24
1
5.9
7
1,735
3,171
-0.8
2022-03-31
0
5.1
6
1,918
4,743
-0.8
2022-04-07
1
4.2
5
1,919
5,172
-0.5
2022-04-14
1
3.5
4
1,055
6,036
-0.3
2022-04-21
0
3.0
3
902
6,189
-0.1
2022-04-28
0
2.0
2
258

+0.2

Ah, I didn’t even consider that. It’ll be interesting to see how all of this pans out with the engine restrictions toward the end of the MY22. Thank you again sir for all the information!

Bokonon_FL · May 20, 2022

Ratbert said:
I was doing those queries through SQL last time and apparently really screwed something up. I've recently modified my code to help with these types of "this and that" queries. This makes a lot more sense, but the numbers are still pretty small.

Instances of 2.0L I4 DOHC DI Turbo Engine w/ ESS AND Xtreme Recon 35" Tire Package over time:

day build sheets window stickers in progress
2022-03-19
10
0
10
2022-03-20
0
0
10
2022-03-21
1
0
11
2022-03-22
0
0
11
2022-03-23
0
0
11
2022-03-24
0
0
11
2022-03-25
0
0
11
2022-03-26
0
0
11
2022-03-27
0
0
11
2022-03-28
1
0
12
2022-03-29
0
0
12
2022-03-30
0
0
12
2022-03-31
0
0
12
2022-04-01
0
0
12
2022-04-02
0
0
12
2022-04-03
0
0
12
2022-04-04
0
1
11
2022-04-05
0
0
11
2022-04-06
0
0
11
2022-04-07
0
0
11
2022-04-08
0
0
11
2022-04-10
0
0
11
2022-04-11
0
0
11
2022-04-12
0
0
11
2022-04-13
0
0
11
2022-04-14
0
0
11
2022-04-15
0
0
11
2022-04-16
0
1
10
2022-04-17
0
0
10
2022-04-18
0
0
10
2022-04-19
0
0
10
2022-04-20
0
0
10
2022-04-21
3
0
13
2022-04-22
1
0
14
2022-04-23
1
0
15
2022-04-24
0
1
14
2022-04-25
3
0
17
2022-04-26
3
1
19
2022-04-27
3
0
22
2022-04-28
1
0
23
2022-04-29
2
0
25
2022-04-30
0
2
23
2022-05-01
1
1
23
2022-05-02
3
0
26
2022-05-03
6
1
31
2022-05-04
12
3
40
2022-05-05
4
0
44
2022-05-06
13
5
52
2022-05-07
0
3
49
2022-05-08
4
3
50
2022-05-09
14
15
49
2022-05-10
19
10
58
2022-05-11
22
11
69
2022-05-12
1
0
70
total
128
58

These numbers still seem low. Are there a large number that have been ordered but no build sheets yet? Or do you even have visibility into that? Thanks again!

Pistoloni · May 20, 2022

Ratbert said:
Diesels take, on average, 50 days to reach their birthday (MDH). Overall average is 46 days.

order week min weeks avg weeks max weeks started not started avg weeks comparison
2021-10-14
1
6.4
19
2,654
147
-0.0
2021-10-21
1
7.2
19
2,618
183
+0.8
2021-10-28
1
7.7
19
2,760
150
+0.6
2021-11-04
1
8.4
19
2,684
369
+0.9
2021-11-11
1
6.8
19
2,818
235
+0.0
2021-11-18
1
7.6
19
2,696
357
-0.7
2021-11-25
1
6.9
19
3,194
494
-0.5
2021-12-02
1
6.9
19
6,989
369
+0.9
2021-12-09
1
8.9
19
6,777
581
+2.1
2021-12-16
1
10.1
19
6,459
899
+2.2
2021-12-23
2
9.7
18
6,143
1,215
+1.1
2021-12-30
0
8.9
17
5,605
1,456
+1.3
2022-01-06
2
8.6
16
6,067
871
+0.3
2022-01-13
0
8.2
15
5,669
1,269
+1.8
2022-01-20
0
7.7
14
5,295
1,643
+2.1
2022-01-27
0
6.3
13
4,999
1,763
+0.8
2022-02-03
2
7.4
12
4,352
1,893
+0.4
2022-02-10
1
6.8
11
3,885
2,360
-0.1
2022-02-17
0
6.4
10
3,442
2,803
+1.2
2022-02-24
0
6.8
9
2,722
3,196
+1.4
2022-03-03
1
6.6
8
1,448
3,649
+1.4
2022-03-10
1
6.2
7
1,188
3,909
-0.5
2022-03-17
1
5.5
6
1,057
4,040
-0.4
2022-03-24
1
4.6
5
950
4,147
+0.1
2022-03-31
0
4.1
4
863
5,826
+0.4
2022-04-07
1
3.3
3
727
6,225
-0.2
2022-04-14
1
2.5
2
226
6,726
+0.1
2022-04-21
0
1.3
1
64
6,888
+0.8

I got lucky with a 39 day build time. Von 4/5 > Window Sticker 5/14. However stuck in shipping with no ETA provided

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