Ask Ratbert

[bjm00se]

I have a huge untamed ability to generate work for other people :-D

So, if I understand correctly, you've written code that parses the PDF order forms - that's a huge win.

Is the source to "cryptostickers" in github?

Here's my idea: a cooperative effort with you and the cryptosticker author, so that when folks enter their order in cryptostickers, they also upload their POC sheet - preferably with the personal info redacted, like this, but if not, you just don't parse and store that part.

Then, add that information on orders to the database, alongside the info from build sheets.

It does still suffer from the problem of crowd-source-sampling, but still allows for statistical analyses to be performed.

Sponsored

 

[Hearhear]

How many 2021 orders remain to be built?

 

[Ratbert]

I have a huge untamed ability to generate work for other people :-D

So, if I understand correctly, you've written code that parses the PDF order forms - that's a huge win.

Is the source to "cryptostickers" in github?

Here's my idea: a cooperative effort with you and the cryptosticker author, so that when folks enter their order in cryptostickers, they also upload their POC sheet - preferably with the personal info redacted, like this, but if not, you just don't parse and store that part.

Then, add that information on orders to the database, alongside the info from build sheets.

It does still suffer from the problem of crowd-source-sampling, but still allows for statistical analyses to be performed.

No, it's not the order forms (POCs). It's significantly later artifacts: build sheets and window stickers.

Crypto's data is interesting, but it's also extremely suspect. There are lots of people that seem to think that they're helping by walking through dealerships, adding VINs as they go without any clue as to when the vehicle was ordered. We're just guessing that the order date is in the correct ballpark.

I've thought about having people upload their POC, but those include personal details that would need to be masked / dealt with to protect. I'm thinking that not many people would do it.

I'm pretty sure that the only useful thing that Crypto has that I don't is VINs for vehicles that don't yet have build sheets. There's 31 possible VINs for each sequence number. I don't know which is correct until I find a matching build sheet.

 

[Nitehawk92]

Yeah, I guess I do approximately know how many orders have been placed since I know the highest sequence number with a build sheet. What I lack is any details before build sheet. E.g. what POCs contain.

I've realized that I should be able to calculate average build times by week (at least for window stickers that were generated after I started gathering details). That should be interesting / useful.

Ratbert I update the online spreadsheet JL Order Status Tracker with some information my order was placed at the beginning of a month.

 

[bjm00se]

I've thought about having people upload their POC, but those include personal details that would need to be masked / dealt with to protect. I'm thinking that not many people would do it.

Yeah, after all that work, I 'm not sure how much analysis you could do on twelve POC forms.

 

[MDawg]

I have a huge untamed ability to generate work for other people :-D

So, if I understand correctly, you've written code that parses the PDF order forms - that's a huge win.

Is the source to "cryptostickers" in github?

Here's my idea: a cooperative effort with you and the cryptosticker author, so that when folks enter their order in cryptostickers, they also upload their POC sheet - preferably with the personal info redacted, like this, but if not, you just don't parse and store that part.

Then, add that information on orders to the database, alongside the info from build sheets.

It does still suffer from the problem of crowd-source-sampling, but still allows for statistical analyses to be performed.

I was thinking the same thing this morning! The actual stinking order date would be an awesome upgrade too. So tired of seeing all these BogusOrder1, BogusOrder2, BogusOrder3 user names all in a row build, sticker, and last update dates the same.

 

[TriumphJeepster]

Any more gobi hitting build sheets? About a week out from the supposed start date..

 

[Ratbert]

Any more gobi hitting build sheets? About a week out from the supposed start date..

Two with window stickers, the Willys costing quite a bit more than the Sahara.

https://www.jeep.com/webselfservice/BuildSheetServlet?vin=1C4HJXEN0NW168951
https://www.jeep.com/hostd/windowsticker/getWindowStickerPdf.do?vin=1C4HJXEN0NW168951

https://www.jeep.com/webselfservice/BuildSheetServlet?vin=1C4HJXDGXNW189065
https://www.jeep.com/hostd/windowsticker/getWindowStickerPdf.do?vin=1C4HJXDGXNW189065

 

[TriumphJeepster]

Two with window stickers, the Willys costing quite a bit more than the Sahara.

https://www.jeep.com/webselfservice/BuildSheetServlet?vin=1C4HJXEN0NW168951
https://www.jeep.com/hostd/windowsticker/getWindowStickerPdf.do?vin=1C4HJXEN0NW168951

https://www.jeep.com/webselfservice/BuildSheetServlet?vin=1C4HJXDGXNW189065
https://www.jeep.com/hostd/windowsticker/getWindowStickerPdf.do?vin=1C4HJXDGXNW189065

The same 2 from a few weeks back, or new ones?

 

[Ratbert]

The same 2 from a few weeks back, or new ones?

The window sticker for the 2nd one showed up on April 15th. Everything else was found on my initial extraction.

 

[longbucks08]

Appreciate all you Ratbert, any updated on build % by month?

 

[Ratbert]

Appreciate all you Ratbert, any updated on build % by month?

Note that everything other than the number of sequence numbers is for domestic builds only. 75% overall are currently domestic.

My brain is still swimming when I try to think about rendering this in a manner that makes sense. The relationship between build sheets and sequence numbers needs to include international orders, but the relationship between build sheets and window stickers has to exclude international orders. I might need to break it up into separate tables...maybe.

month	# sequence numbers	# build sheets	% haven't started build	% w/build sheets	# window stickers	% w/window stickers	% in progress
Oct '21	12,400​	10,176​	17.9​	82.1​	9,862​	79.5​	3.1​
Nov '21	13,099​	10,280​	21.5​	78.5​	10,014​	76.4​	2.6​
Dec '21	32,583​	18,853​	42.1​	57.9​	18,674​	57.3​	0.9​
Jan '22	30,742​	16,877​	45.1​	54.9​	16,597​	54.0​	1.7​
Feb '22	24,976​	9,163​	63.3​	36.7​	8,628​	34.5​	5.8​
Mar '22	22,569​	2,085​	90.8​	9.2​	1,645​	7.3​	21.1​
Apr '22	​	17​	​	​	12​	​	29.4​

 

[Ratbert]

Appreciate all you Ratbert, any updated on build % by month?

Let's see if this makes sense:

month	# sequence numbers	# build sheets	% w/build sheets	# domestic build sheets	# domestic window stickers	% domestic in progress
Oct '21	12,400​	11,650​	94.0​	10,176​	9,862​	3.1​
Nov '21	13,099​	11,438​	87.3​	10,280​	10,014​	2.6​
Dec '21	32,583​	28,340​	87.0​	18,853​	18,674​	0.9​
Jan '22	30,742​	23,628​	76.9​	16,877​	16,597​	1.7​
Feb '22	24,976​	12,535​	50.2​	9,163​	8,628​	5.8​
Mar '22	22,569​	2,361​	10.5​	2,085​	1,645​	21.1​
Apr '22	​	25​	​	17​	12​	29.4​

 

[bjm00se]

Let's see if this makes sense:

month	# sequence numbers	# build sheets	% w/build sheets	# domestic build sheets	# domestic window stickers	% domestic in progress
Oct '21	12,400​	11,650​	94.0​	10,176​	9,862​	3.1​
Nov '21	13,099​	11,438​	87.3​	10,280​	10,014​	2.6​
Dec '21	32,583​	28,340​	87.0​	18,853​	18,674​	0.9​
Jan '22	30,742​	23,628​	76.9​	16,877​	16,597​	1.7​
Feb '22	24,976​	12,535​	50.2​	9,163​	8,628​	5.8​
Mar '22	22,569​	2,361​	10.5​	2,085​	1,645​	21.1​
Apr '22	​	25​	​	17​	12​	29.4​

There ya go.

 

[bjm00se]

So, this was generated today, 4/26

month	# sequence numbers	# build sheets	% w/build sheets	# domestic build sheets	# domestic window stickers	% domestic in progress
Oct '21	12,400​	11,650​	94.0​	10,176​	9,862​	3.1​
Nov '21	13,099​	11,438​	87.3​	10,280​	10,014​	2.6​
Dec '21	32,583​	28,340​	87.0​	18,853​	18,674​	0.9​
Jan '22	30,742​	23,628​	76.9​	16,877​	16,597​	1.7​
Feb '22	24,976​	12,535​	50.2​	9,163​	8,628​	5.8​
Mar '22	22,569​	2,361​	10.5​	2,085​	1,645​	21.1​
Apr '22	​	25​	​	17​	12​	29.4​

And this one was two weeks ago, on 4/11

month	% w/build sheets	% w/window stickers
Oct '21	91.1​	85.2​
Nov '21	83.4​	78.3​
Dec '21	84.1​	60.2​
Jan '22	71.5​	54.5​
Feb '22	38.6​	30.4​
Mar '22	3.5​	2.0​

So over the time interval from 4/11 to 4/26 (two weeks) they increased the number of build sheets by:

Month	build sheet increase in percentage points	approximate actual increase in build sheets - number of builds begun from 4/11 to 4/26	How many left to build?	At this rate, if nothing changes, how long until they're ALL built?
Oct 21	2.9%	360	750	4.2 weeks
Nov 21	3.9%	511	1661	6.5 weeks
Dec 21	2.9%	945	4243	9.5 weeks
Jan 22	5.4%	1660	7114	9 weeks
Feb 22	11.6%	2897	12441	9 weeks
Mar 22	7.0%	1748	20208	24 weeks

They really seem to ramp up the builds that are about two months old.

50% of the Jeeps seem to have build sheets by the time they're about that age, and that seems to be the period of greatest progress on the builds.

So, you have a 50/50 chance of your jeep being built at, say, 8 weeks (EDIT we're almost at the end of the month, so more like 10 weeks)

75% chance of it having a build sheet at 12 weeks (EDIT 14 weeks) But then it tapers off.

Now, if your jeep isn't built yet - it looks like they're really trying to get those October orders closed out, and you seem to have a near 100% chance of getting it built in the next four weeks.

November orders, a little longer: 6/7 weeks, with the 50/50 over under at 3 or 4 weeks.

December's actually the most stalled - 9.5 weeks at the current burndown rate. So, the 50/50 over/under is still about 5 more weeks for us December orders.

You can probably expect that the build rate on the March orders will accelerate. So the 24 weeks in the table is probably pessimistic.

Sponsored