Ask Ratbert

[jblackst]

Any concerns about triggering some sort of denial mechanism with extensive queries? To that same extent, what would keep you from querying every possible VIN for MY '22?

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[Ratbert]

I am early feb order so any data that marches my direction would be better I like seeing the data and trying to identify trends.

It is interesting -the volume of your build sheet numbers is in line with yearly production/12 so I bet you are capturing most if not all the production. Pretty cool.

I ordered half doors on my JLUR-XR and what I keep wondering is -if the number of people who ordered half doors is pretty small then is that a good thing, bad thing or nonfactor in whether my order goes through in a normal build period or be subject to huge delays.

I know the delays in fulfilling my order is subject to the same supply chain issues as all of the other rubicons with XR, leather, etc. I am curious to know whether or not, at the time the half doors are produced and delivered to the factory, that would that help move my order forward so Jeep doesnt have them sitting around. Conversly, is the order delayed because the jeep door supplier cannot produce enough full doors to meet demand & half doors are such small % of orders they are postponed and batch produced when enough qty is in the queue. Third option (most likely) is that it is a non factor and jeep is built when it is built.

Half doors are pretty rare: about 1%. I have a small number of days' worth of build sheets to attempt to figure out what's holding things up, but so for half door builds don't seem to be an issue as far as I can tell.

Note that if I'm able to grab Oct through now's build sheets then I'll temporarily lose the ability to look for holes in what's being build on a day-by-day basis. It'll take a couple days to gather those details.

 

[Ratbert]

Any concerns about triggering some sort of denial mechanism with extensive queries? To that same extent, what would keep you from querying every possible VIN for MY '22?

Yes, there's definitely a chance that my 100-ish threads hitting jeep.com concurrently could be perceived as a DoS attack. If that happens then I can't continue with this project. It's been fun as well as challenging to work on though.

It's currently about 10% through full MY '22 after ~2 hours. Hopefully it'll be done by tomorrow morning and hopefully I don't get blocked. After the initial extraction it's significantly less load on jeep.com, so subsequent updates are many times faster.

 

[Ratbert]

Now that I've optimized the crap out of this it looks like I can update the database in under 40 minutes while searching for all newly created build sheets (100,000 through 234,000 for the time being). I might turn the volume down a bit since hitting jeep.com with 256 concurrent threads might raise some eyebrows.

And yes, I have a complete database of build sheets now (all months). Going forward we should be able to somewhat easily determine what equipment is or is not getting new build sheets. I'm not sure if there's any value in also extracting window stickers. I have the code in place to do that, but it's commented out.

Thanks @travis_cooper for letting me know approximately when March started so I had an idea on where to stop that search. And, of course, to @dahacker for the inspiration that it might be possible to do this.

 

[Powelligator]

Thank You, John. You are doing The Lord's work.

Your work has confirmed to me what a unicorn I ended up ordering - 2-Door Rubicon w/manual trans and 4.88 gears. By the end of the '22 model year there might be 150 of us.

Here's a question, can you see particular runs of fleet orders? I was having dinner with a friend of mine last night who works for one of the byzantine arms of the federal government that orders vehicles in fleets. She told me that recently the INS put in an order for around 200 JLU Rubicons. Pretty much devoid of options, but all of them white in color. Something like that show up?

 

[Ratbert]

Thank You, John. You are doing The Lord's work.

Your work has confirmed to me what a unicorn I ended up ordering - 2-Door Rubicon w/manual trans and 4.88 gears. By the end of the '22 model year there might be 150 of us.

Here's a question, can you see particular runs of fleet orders? I was having dinner with a friend of mine last night who works for one of the byzantine arms of the federal government that orders vehicles in fleets. She told me that recently the INS put in an order for around 200 JLU Rubicons. Pretty much devoid of options, but all of them white in color. Something like that show up?

Currently only 5 build sheets with "Fleet Government Sale".

1C4HJXAG4NW139072 - JL Sport
1C4HJXAG6NW139073 - JL Sport
1C4HJXDG6NW139151 - JLU Sport
1C4HJXFG8NW139181 - JLUR
1C4HJXAG5NW129330 - JL Sport

 

[travis_cooper]

How many total build sheets so far? Of course not all of those have finished yet, but dividing that across all the days since 2022 production started would give an idea of how many are roughly being built per day.

Also, are you able to see when a build sheet was actually created? Or are you just able to tell if there is one or not? Of the latter, are you tracking in your database the date you find a specific build sheet? I think it would be cool to see a chart of new build sheets created per day/week/month.

On optimization, I’m guessing that the last six digits are unique, is that true? If that’s the case you wouldn’t need to search the whole space each time, you could skip the ones you already have, but you’re probably already doing that.

 

[TriumphJeepster]

Your work has confirmed to me what a unicorn I ended up ordering - 2-Door Rubicon w/manual trans and 4.88 gears. By the end of the '22 model year there might be 150 of us.

Make it 151 =]

This is super fascinating stuff!

 

[Ratbert]

How many total build sheets so far? Of course not all of those have finished yet, but dividing that across all the days since 2022 production started would give an idea of how many are roughly being built per day.

63,887 build sheets as of now. That's for all factory sequence numbers from 100,000 to 234,000. Highest sequence number to date is 217,645.

Also, are you able to see when a build sheet was actually created? Or are you just able to tell if there is one or not? Of the latter, are you tracking in your database the date you find a specific build sheet? I think it would be cool to see a chart of new build sheets created per day/week/month.

No, there's nothing in there on when it was created. I'm keeping track of when I discover it, so any day-to-day analysis is limited to that. I'm not sure how I'll handling charting. That, in itself, could become its own project.

On optimization, I’m guessing that the last six digits are unique, is that true? If that’s the case you wouldn’t need to search the whole space each time, you could skip the ones you already have, but you’re probably already doing that.

Yep, that's been my intent from day one. That's also how it's now able to grab any new build sheets so quickly versus a day+ for the initial load.

 

[Ratbert]

If you're interested in what build sheets near your sequence number then this might be of interest.

Sequence Number Range	Count	% Overall	% Within Range
100000-109999	4,332​	6.8​	43.3​
110000-119999	8,100​	12.7​	81.0​
120000-129999	7,751​	12.1​	77.5​
130000-139999	8,359​	13.1​	83.6​
140000-149999	7,644​	12.0​	76.4​
150000-159999	6,244​	9.8​	62.4​
160000-169999	6,074​	9.5​	60.7​
170000-179999	5,386​	8.4​	53.9​
180000-189999	4,696​	7.4​	47.0​
190000-199999	3,341​	5.2​	33.4​
200000-209999	1,406​	2.2​	14.1​
210000-219999	544​	0.9​	5.4​
220000-229999	10​	0.0​	0.1​

My VIN is 1C4JJXFM6NW128557 (sequence number 128557), so 77.5% of my neighboring VINs have build sheets. I'm still in D, so I don't have one yet. Note that we don't know how many sequence numbers actually get built.

I'll see if I can do the same type of thing by month.

And yes, I finally wrote a program to generate these damn tables. Copy / paste of more than a few rows got to be too damn tedious and error-prone. I also figured out to right-justify numerics.

 

[eniveparg]

It appears they are trying to knock out the older builds. I’m 208565, so I will have a wait unless the Jeep gods help me.
Thanks for doing these

 

[Ratbert]

Build sheets by their VIN creation month:

Month	Count	% Overall	% for Month
October	11,004​	17.2​	84.6​
November	9,531​	14.9​	76.3​
December	23,815​	37.3​	73.3​
January or February	19,512​	30.5​	36.1​
March	25​	0.0​	?​

I'm part of December, so that encompasses 37.3% of build sheets that have been created and 73.3% of December's builds now have build sheets. I'm part of that 26.7% that's still in D.

Note that we have a pretty good idea of when most VINs were created except for January and February, so those are lumped together for now. I'm using @dahacker 's analysis as well as other input that I've received.

Edit: (post request removed and redirected to https://www.jlwranglerforums.com/fo...-out-what-months-our-vins-were-created.90406/)

Edit: please post your sequence number details here so they can be collected and updated in one place.

 

[Nitehawk92]

2D vs 4D:
4D: 88%
2D: 12%

2D vs 4D auto / stick
4D auto: 86%
2D auto: 11%
4D stick: 2%
2D stick: 1%

Stick vs auto by 2D or 4D
2D auto: 90%
2D stick: 10%

4D auto: 98%
4D stick: 2%

As you suspected: significantly more 2D buyers choose a stick than 4D buyers.

Wow it appears I am one of the 2%. I would have thought that there would be more manual trans then 2%...

 

[Nitehawk92]

The 5k, etc. at the end of the model is its GVWR class. The most popular model / engine combo is the JLU Sport with the 3.6L (17%).

Model	Count	Percent
2.0L, 4D LHD Sport, 5k	2877	13
2.0L, 4D LHD Sahara, 5k	2812	12
2.0L, 4D LHD Rubicon, 5k	2257	10
2.0L PHEV, 4D LHD Sahara 4xe, 6k	2090	9
2.0L, 2D LHD Sport, 4k	1451	6
2.0L PHEV, 4D LHD Rubicon 4xe, 6k	1250	5
2.0L, 4D RHD Sahara export, 5k	411	2
2.0L, 2D LHD Rubicon, 5k	318	1
2.0L, 4D RHD Rubicon export, 5k	185	1
2.0L, 2D LHD Sahara export, 5k	75	0
2.0L, 2D RHD Rubicon export, 5k	14	0
2.0L, 4D RHD Sport, 5k	10	0
2.0L, 2D RHD Sahara export, 5k	3	0

By engine:

Model	Count	Percent
2.0L I4 DOHC DI Turbo Engine w/ ESS	10413	45
3.6L V6 24V VVT Engine Upg I w/ESS	4640	20
2.0L I4 DOHC DI Turbo PHEV Engine	3340	15
3.6L V6 24V VVT eTorque Engine Upg I	2756	12
3.0L V6 Turbo Diesel Engine w/ESS G3	1270	6
6.4L V8 SRT HEMI MDS Engine	481	2

I might have gotten the 2.0L I4 but it is only available with the automatic trans...

 

[eniveparg]

Build sheets by their VIN creation month:

Month	Count	% Overall	% for Month
October	11,004​	17.2​	84.6​
November	9,531​	14.9​	76.3​
December	23,815​	37.3​	73.3​
January or February	19,512​	30.5​	36.1​
March	25​	0.0​	?​

I'm part of December, so that encompasses 37.3% of build sheets that have been created and 73.3% of December's builds now have build sheets. I'm part of that 26.7% that's still in D.

Note that we have a pretty good idea of when most VINs were created except for January and February, so those are lumped together for now. I'm using @dahacker 's analysis as well as other input that I've received.

If you ordered early or late January, or early or late February, then please let me know your sequence number (last 6 of your VIN) and when you got your VIN.

My order was placed 2/21 and my sequence number is 208565.

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