Ask Ratbert

Ratbert · May 9, 2022

Blazing Saddles said:
What I am really curious about is the 'Production Evaluation Run (PER)' that I have seen. ( and is on my old build sheet) You should be able to extrapolate that as well as matching fields to determine which options Stellantis is testing. Can you provide the current database in a format that I can use pandas to do my own evaluations? I suppose I can use SQL ( which it seems like you have dumped this in) if necessary.

Here are all of the 2022 PERs, listed in reverse chronological order. The parts should be easily pulled from jeep.com. The first two are from May.

1C4HJXDM1NW257887 3.0L 4D LHD Sport
1C4GJXAN7NW208783 2.0L 2D LHD Sport
1C4HJXDN8NW210784 2.0L 4D LHD Sport
1C4HJXFG0NW189511 3.6L 4D LHD Rubicon
1C4HJXDGXNW189065 3.6L 4D LHD Sport
1C4HJXCG1NW181289 3.6L 2D LHD Rubicon
1C4HJXDG9NW181278 3.6L 4D LHD Sport
1C4HJXEG0NW180969 3.6L 4D LHD Sahara
1C4HJXDG9NW179613 3.6L 4D LHD Sport
1C4HJXDG5NW179219 3.6L 4D LHD Sport
1C4HJXEN0NW168951 2.0L 4D LHD Sahara
1C4HJXFGXNW165703 3.6L 4D LHD Rubicon
1C4GJXAN6NW163545 2.0L 2D LHD Sport
1C4HJXDN4NW158926 2.0L 4D LHD Sport
1C4GJXAG0NW156947 3.6L 2D LHD Sport
1C4HJXBG9NW135243 3.6L 2D LHD Sahara export
1C4HJXEN0NW123833 2.0L 4D LHD Sahara
1C4HJXENXNW118770 2.0L 4D LHD Sahara
1C4HJXCG0NW106910 3.6L 2D LHD Rubicon
1C4HJXFG1NW106877 3.6L 4D LHD Rubicon
1C4HJXEG2NW105805 3.6L 4D LHD Sahara
1C4HJXFG7NW103546 3.6L 4D LHD Rubicon
1C4HJXFG5NW103478 3.6L 4D LHD Rubicon
1C4HJXFG2NW103471 3.6L 4D LHD Rubicon
1C4HJXCG5NW102416 3.6L 2D LHD Rubicon
1C4HJXCG6NW102246 3.6L 2D LHD Rubicon
1C4HJXCG5NW102108 3.6L 2D LHD Rubicon
1C4HJXFG8NW101773 3.6L 4D LHD Rubicon
1C4JJXSJ6NW100270 6.4L 4D LHD Rubicon 392

Ratbert · May 10, 2022

bjm00se said:
Hi John,
You ran this on 4/26.

Can you run it again tomorrow, 5/10, which will be two weeks later? I'd like to look at a new linear progression.

Nothing new was found by this morning's run. Note that I manually kicked off yesterday's run in the afternoon since Sunday's never finished for some reason.

Yesterday's run took almost 7 hours to complete, so it didn't finish 11pm. That could explain why the 2am run found nothing new. My previous post represents today's data.

Ratbert · May 10, 2022

ChuckQue said:
So, I’ve been regularly checking inventory via the Jeep website. My search criteria usually consist of Rubicon, 4 doors, eco diesel and color matches hard top with a 250 mile radius from my hometown of La Mirada, California. For the last couple of weeks I’ve not found much out there, maybe a handful of Rubicons with ANY engine option.

This morning, my search came back with almost zero Rubicons but a TON of High Tides, High Altitudes and TWO door Rubicons. All either “In Transit” or “Being Built”.

Thoughts @Ratbert ?

Significantly more Rubicons are being built than High Tides or High Altitudes. There are, however, a lot of Rubicons that have build sheets w/o window stickers.

Instances of High Tide Package over time:

day	build sheets	window stickers	in progress
2022-03-19	1	1	0
2022-03-20	0	0	0
2022-03-21	0	0	0
2022-03-22	0	0	0
2022-03-23	0	0	0
2022-03-24	0	0	0
2022-03-25	0	0	0
2022-03-26	0	0	0
2022-03-27	0	0	0
2022-03-28	0	0	0
2022-03-29	0	0	0
2022-03-30	0	0	0
2022-03-31	0	0	0
2022-04-01	0	0	0
2022-04-02	0	0	0
2022-04-03	0	0	0
2022-04-04	0	0	0
2022-04-05	5	0	5
2022-04-06	18	0	23
2022-04-07	29	0	52
2022-04-08	33	0	85
2022-04-10	82	0	167
2022-04-11	0	0	167
2022-04-12	20	2	185
2022-04-13	21	2	204
2022-04-14	45	8	241
2022-04-15	17	9	249
2022-04-16	15	18	246
2022-04-17	0	7	239
2022-04-18	28	3	264
2022-04-19	28	27	265
2022-04-20	0	3	262
2022-04-21	54	50	266
2022-04-22	27	15	278
2022-04-23	7	17	268
2022-04-24	12	44	236
2022-04-25	35	14	257
2022-04-26	68	28	297
2022-04-27	55	15	337
2022-04-28	62	40	359
2022-04-29	22	11	370
2022-04-30	17	25	362
2022-05-01	3	6	359
2022-05-02	42	0	401
2022-05-03	41	48	394
2022-05-04	56	35	415
2022-05-05	11	1	425
2022-05-06	23	33	415
2022-05-07	0	17	398
2022-05-08	14	12	400
2022-05-09	30	50	380

Instances of High Altitude Package over time:

day	build sheets	window stickers	in progress
2022-03-19	1,816	1,725	91
2022-03-20	30	25	96
2022-03-21	28	23	101
2022-03-22	13	13	101
2022-03-23	35	0	136
2022-03-24	2	0	138
2022-03-25	31	0	169
2022-03-26	0	44	125
2022-03-27	2	94	33
2022-03-28	21	34	20
2022-03-29	23	20	23
2022-03-30	25	10	38
2022-03-31	8	6	40
2022-04-01	26	28	38
2022-04-02	0	9	29
2022-04-03	0	9	20
2022-04-04	48	33	35
2022-04-05	18	6	47
2022-04-06	16	11	52
2022-04-07	13	16	49
2022-04-08	19	14	54
2022-04-10	39	49	44
2022-04-11	0	0	44
2022-04-12	7	27	24
2022-04-13	10	6	28
2022-04-14	22	17	33
2022-04-15	28	20	41
2022-04-16	25	34	32
2022-04-17	0	6	26
2022-04-18	27	3	50
2022-04-19	23	18	55
2022-04-20	0	2	53
2022-04-21	39	46	46
2022-04-22	21	13	54
2022-04-23	20	25	49
2022-04-24	5	13	41
2022-04-25	15	12	44
2022-04-26	42	32	54
2022-04-27	36	27	63
2022-04-28	37	38	62
2022-04-29	16	19	59
2022-04-30	6	20	45
2022-05-01	7	8	44
2022-05-02	29	7	66
2022-05-03	35	25	76
2022-05-04	31	43	64
2022-05-05	3	7	60
2022-05-06	17	14	63
2022-05-07	0	5	58
2022-05-08	11	7	62
2022-05-09	33	39	56

Instances of Rubicon 392 Hood Decal, Rubicon 4xe Hood Top Decal, OR Rubicon Hood Decal over time:

day	build sheets	window stickers	in progress
2022-03-19	12,758	11,423	1,335
2022-03-20	211	160	1,386
2022-03-21	203	137	1,452
2022-03-22	180	136	1,496
2022-03-23	388	2	1,882
2022-03-24	15	0	1,897
2022-03-25	199	0	2,096
2022-03-26	0	379	1,717
2022-03-27	6	1,022	701
2022-03-28	300	217	784
2022-03-29	228	169	843
2022-03-30	205	245	803
2022-03-31	51	99	755
2022-04-01	217	293	679
2022-04-02	3	123	559
2022-04-03	0	72	487
2022-04-04	283	185	585
2022-04-05	170	34	721
2022-04-06	164	60	825
2022-04-07	138	115	848
2022-04-08	163	135	876
2022-04-10	357	367	866
2022-04-11	6	3	869
2022-04-12	93	177	785
2022-04-13	161	81	865
2022-04-14	356	235	986
2022-04-15	132	107	1,011
2022-04-16	140	193	958
2022-04-17	0	52	906
2022-04-18	138	23	1,021
2022-04-19	168	118	1,071
2022-04-20	0	9	1,062
2022-04-21	252	216	1,098
2022-04-22	118	72	1,144
2022-04-23	81	108	1,117
2022-04-24	43	103	1,057
2022-04-25	158	75	1,140
2022-04-26	373	164	1,349
2022-04-27	225	153	1,421
2022-04-28	240	220	1,441
2022-04-29	72	85	1,428
2022-04-30	77	199	1,306
2022-05-01	23	86	1,243
2022-05-02	222	26	1,439
2022-05-03	182	171	1,450
2022-05-04	321	346	1,425
2022-05-05	68	34	1,459
2022-05-06	226	180	1,505
2022-05-07	4	81	1,428
2022-05-08	102	114	1,416
2022-05-09	286	386	1,316

ChuckQue · May 10, 2022

I just found it odd to see a boatload of those trims showing being built or in transit, with almost zero four door rubicons. Granted this is Southern California so I’m sure they are stocking up the dealers here with those for a reason. Seemed like the flood gates opened.

Ratbert · May 10, 2022

Powelligator said:
Yeah, this would be interesting to know. The 4.88's as an option started in the '22 model year and I guess I never realized it was restricted to Rubicons only. So the distribution that might be interesting know would be Rubicons compared to the rest of the models, then below that manual transmission Rubicons, then below that the 4.88 option. For model year 2022 the 4.88's appear only to have been available for 6 months, there might not even be 1,000 built is my guess. Not a lot of dealers would have ordered those either for stock orders, the vast majority would have been Jeep enthusiasts who know what they have in mind for their ride.

All of these stats are domestic + international.

By model:

model	count	percent
Sport	36,465	35.7
Sahara	35,699	34.9
Rubicon	30,091	29.4

Within Rubicons:

transmission	count	percent
4D Automatic Transmissions	25,579	25.0
2D Automatic Transmissions	3,339	3.3
4D Manual Transmissions	692	0.7
2D Manual Transmissions	481	0.5

4.88s:

model	count
3.6L 4D LHD Rubicon	61
3.6L 2D LHD Rubicon	57

JayJay · May 10, 2022

Hi John, what does the "percent" in the Transmission table represent? A percent of what?

Ratbert said:
All of these stats are domestic + international.

By model:

model count percent
Sport
36,465
35.7
Sahara
35,699
34.9
Rubicon
30,091
29.4

Within Rubicons:

transmission count percent
4D Automatic Transmissions
25,579
25.0
2D Automatic Transmissions
3,339
3.3
4D Manual Transmissions
692
0.7
2D Manual Transmissions
481
0.5

4.88s:

model count
3.6L 4D LHD Rubicon
61
3.6L 2D LHD Rubicon
57

Ratbert · May 10, 2022

JayJay said:
Hi John, what does the "percent" in the Transmission table represent? A percent of what?

In that case it's still overall. I didn't feel like trying to put the entire where clause into the percentage calculation. Those add up to the Rubicon's percentage.

bjm00se · May 10, 2022

Ratbert said:
Here it is for today. I'll run it again tomorrow.

month # sequence numbers # build sheets % w/build sheets # domestic build sheets # domestic window stickers % domestic in progress
Oct 2021
12,401
11,745
94.7
10,265
10,027
2.3
Nov 2021
13,100
11,833
90.3
10,672
10,485
1.8
Dec 2021
32,584
29,158
89.5
19,484
19,265
1.1
Jan 2022
30,743
24,947
81.1
17,740
17,457
1.6
Feb 2022
24,977
15,569
62.3
10,883
10,409
4.4
Mar 2022
22,570
6,225
27.6
4,987
4,179
16.2
Apr 2022
29,801
2,774
9.3
2,694
2,107
21.8
May 2022

4

4
0
100.0

Thanks, used this new data in a post on the '22 order thread here: https://www.jlwranglerforums.com/fo...actual-deliveries.83840/page-813#post-1944009

eveg33 · May 12, 2022

Ratbert said:
I'm only showing 39 with build sheets and 8 with window stickers. Those numbers seem strangely small.

Morning John,

Can you run this again when you have a chance? Thank you!

John VonJeep · May 12, 2022

Jeep is so full of ?. At one point they claimed they had built 30,000 Tuscadero JLs, which would have amounted to ~25% of production during the relevant time period. Simply impossible, yet no auto journalist even questioned it.

This shows Tuscadero accounting for around 7% of production, which is much more believable.

jeninchicago · May 12, 2022

Ratbert said:
Here it is for today. I'll run it again tomorrow.

month # sequence numbers # build sheets % w/build sheets # domestic build sheets # domestic window stickers % domestic in progress
Oct 2021
12,401
11,745
94.7
10,265
10,027
2.3
Nov 2021
13,100
11,833
90.3
10,672
10,485
1.8
Dec 2021
32,584
29,158
89.5
19,484
19,265
1.1
Jan 2022
30,743
24,947
81.1
17,740
17,457
1.6
Feb 2022
24,977
15,569
62.3
10,883
10,409
4.4
Mar 2022
22,570
6,225
27.6
4,987
4,179
16.2
Apr 2022
29,801
2,774
9.3
2,694
2,107
21.8
May 2022

4

4
0
100.0

Wonder how I can make my January order one of those that is in progress lol. Why such a low % of Jan in progress vs March and April?

GatorWrangler · May 12, 2022

John VonJeep said:
Jeep is so full of ?. At one point they claimed they had built 30,000 Tuscadero JLs, which would have amounted to ~25% of production during the relevant time period. Simply impossible, yet no auto journalist even questioned it.

This shows Tuscadero accounting for around 7% of production, which is much more believable.

Yeah, I recall some calling BS at that at the time (may have been you). Seemed like a huge number.

Ratbert · May 12, 2022

jeninchicago said:
Wonder how I can make my January order one of those that is in progress lol. Why such a low % of Jan in progress vs March and April?

I'm thinking that I should just have raw numbers for that column. A percentage is confusing.

Ratbert · May 12, 2022

eveg33 said:
Morning John,

Can you run this again when you have a chance? Thank you!

I was doing those queries through SQL last time and apparently really screwed something up. I've recently modified my code to help with these types of "this and that" queries. This makes a lot more sense, but the numbers are still pretty small.

Instances of 2.0L I4 DOHC DI Turbo Engine w/ ESS AND Xtreme Recon 35" Tire Package over time:

day	build sheets	window stickers	in progress
2022-03-19	10	0	10
2022-03-20	0	0	10
2022-03-21	1	0	11
2022-03-22	0	0	11
2022-03-23	0	0	11
2022-03-24	0	0	11
2022-03-25	0	0	11
2022-03-26	0	0	11
2022-03-27	0	0	11
2022-03-28	1	0	12
2022-03-29	0	0	12
2022-03-30	0	0	12
2022-03-31	0	0	12
2022-04-01	0	0	12
2022-04-02	0	0	12
2022-04-03	0	0	12
2022-04-04	0	1	11
2022-04-05	0	0	11
2022-04-06	0	0	11
2022-04-07	0	0	11
2022-04-08	0	0	11
2022-04-10	0	0	11
2022-04-11	0	0	11
2022-04-12	0	0	11
2022-04-13	0	0	11
2022-04-14	0	0	11
2022-04-15	0	0	11
2022-04-16	0	1	10
2022-04-17	0	0	10
2022-04-18	0	0	10
2022-04-19	0	0	10
2022-04-20	0	0	10
2022-04-21	3	0	13
2022-04-22	1	0	14
2022-04-23	1	0	15
2022-04-24	0	1	14
2022-04-25	3	0	17
2022-04-26	3	1	19
2022-04-27	3	0	22
2022-04-28	1	0	23
2022-04-29	2	0	25
2022-04-30	0	2	23
2022-05-01	1	1	23
2022-05-02	3	0	26
2022-05-03	6	1	31
2022-05-04	12	3	40
2022-05-05	4	0	44
2022-05-06	13	5	52
2022-05-07	0	3	49
2022-05-08	4	3	50
2022-05-09	14	15	49
2022-05-10	19	10	58
2022-05-11	22	11	69
2022-05-12	1	0	70
total	128	58

eveg33 · May 12, 2022

Ratbert said:
I was doing those queries through SQL last time and apparently really screwed something up. I've recently modified my code to help with these types of "this and that" queries. This makes a lot more sense, but the numbers are still pretty small.

Instances of 2.0L I4 DOHC DI Turbo Engine w/ ESS AND Xtreme Recon 35" Tire Package over time:

day build sheets window stickers in progress
2022-03-19
10
0
10
2022-03-20
0
0
10
2022-03-21
1
0
11
2022-03-22
0
0
11
2022-03-23
0
0
11
2022-03-24
0
0
11
2022-03-25
0
0
11
2022-03-26
0
0
11
2022-03-27
0
0
11
2022-03-28
1
0
12
2022-03-29
0
0
12
2022-03-30
0
0
12
2022-03-31
0
0
12
2022-04-01
0
0
12
2022-04-02
0
0
12
2022-04-03
0
0
12
2022-04-04
0
1
11
2022-04-05
0
0
11
2022-04-06
0
0
11
2022-04-07
0
0
11
2022-04-08
0
0
11
2022-04-10
0
0
11
2022-04-11
0
0
11
2022-04-12
0
0
11
2022-04-13
0
0
11
2022-04-14
0
0
11
2022-04-15
0
0
11
2022-04-16
0
1
10
2022-04-17
0
0
10
2022-04-18
0
0
10
2022-04-19
0
0
10
2022-04-20
0
0
10
2022-04-21
3
0
13
2022-04-22
1
0
14
2022-04-23
1
0
15
2022-04-24
0
1
14
2022-04-25
3
0
17
2022-04-26
3
1
19
2022-04-27
3
0
22
2022-04-28
1
0
23
2022-04-29
2
0
25
2022-04-30
0
2
23
2022-05-01
1
1
23
2022-05-02
3
0
26
2022-05-03
6
1
31
2022-05-04
12
3
40
2022-05-05
4
0
44
2022-05-06
13
5
52
2022-05-07
0
3
49
2022-05-08
4
3
50
2022-05-09
14
15
49
2022-05-10
19
10
58
2022-05-11
22
11
69
2022-05-12
1
0
70
total
128
58

Interesting, thanks again for all you do sir!

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