The "haven't started build" percentage for October is absolutely nuts to me. I have seen every single option available come off the assembly line when pursuing builds on Crypto. You can not tell me they couldn't reserve some of these parts to finish off the October builds. It makes absolutely no sense. They HAVE to be allocating these build slots to higher margin vehicles (post cost increases).You're right. It makes much more sense when there's context.
month # sequence numbers # build sheets % haven't started build % w/build sheets # window stickers % w/window stickers % in backlog Oct '21 12,399 10,116 18.4 81.6 9,779 78.9 3.3Nov '21 13,099 10,162 22.4 77.6 9,844 75.2 3.1Dec '21 32,583 18,651 42.8 57.2 18,409 56.5 1.3Jan '22 30,742 16,588 46.0 54.0 16,202 52.7 2.3Feb '22 24,976 8,677 65.3 34.7 7,927 31.7 8.6Mar '22 22,898 1,210 94.7 5.3 798 3.5 34.0Apr '22 ??? 10 ??? ??? 7 ??? 30.0
I'll have to figure out an approach to include international builds in these statistics. For some perspectives their exclusion is significantly skewing the analysis, but they need to be excluded for other views.The "haven't started build" percentage for October is absolutely nuts to me. I have seen every single option available come off the assembly line when pursuing builds on Crypto. You can not tell me they couldn't reserve some of these parts to finish off the October builds. It makes absolutely no sense. They HAVE to be allocating these build slots to higher margin vehicles (post cost increases).
This is interesting. Now that I've (hopefully) worked through all of the edge cases and extracted all of the build sheets and window stickers from a 10,000 section of 2020 mid-year sequence numbers I'm seeing the following:I can't remember the exact details, but I thought Ratbert said he had to exclude some of the data because it was flagged for export or something like that.
Also, Ratbert, didn't you say something about running 2021 data and finding out that a certain % of sequence numbers were never built? Do you remember what that percentage was? I wonder if that will be roughly the same for MY 2022 builds.
Finally, since you have to assume everyone looking at these threads have custom builds, is there any information in the build sheets or window stickers that would give us an idea of what % of being built is custom rides compare to the total population?
Thanks as always @Ratbert!
Having a "Sold Vehicle" line item on a build sheet seems to be the indicator of a custom order.Finally, since you have to assume everyone looking at these threads have custom builds, is there any information in the build sheets or window stickers that would give us an idea of what % of being built is custom rides compare to the total population?
I'm guessing that Air Conditioning Bypass might mean that it lacks A/C, but not positive.Is it possible to see how many do not have factory ac?
| part | count | percent |
|---|---|---|
| Air Conditioning w/Auto Temp Control | 52,268 | 79.0 |
| Air Conditioning | 13,870 | 21.0 |
| Air Conditioning Bypass | 55 | 0.1 |
| part | count | percent |
|---|---|---|
| Air Conditioning w/Auto Temp Control | 21,223 | 96.5 |
| Air Conditioning | 702 | 3.2 |
| Air Conditioning Bypass | 12 | 0.1 |
Thank youI'm guessing that Air Conditioning Bypass might mean that it lacks A/C, but not positive.
I broke this one up by domestic / international since the numbers seem to indicate that the US market has many more vehicles with standard A/C than the international market.
Domestic:
part count percent Air Conditioning w/Auto Temp Control 4,902 69Air Conditioning 2,233 31Air Conditioning Bypass 19 0
International:
part count percent Air Conditioning w/Auto Temp Control 2,436 91Air Conditioning 217 8Air Conditioning Bypass 192 0
About 2x as many with 2.0 engines than 4xe. There also seems to be quite a few more 4xes waiting on being finalized after receiving a build sheet.@Ratbert can you tell if the 4xE models are taking precedence for the 2.0L? It appears that the majority of the 2.0L listed on Crypto are being used in the 4xE
| day | build sheets | window stickers | backlog |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-03-19 | 15,816 | 15,078 | 738 |
| 2022-03-20 | 88 | 71 | 755 |
| 2022-03-21 | 101 | 224 | 632 |
| 2022-03-22 | 90 | 97 | 625 |
| 2022-03-23 | 194 | 0 | 819 |
| 2022-03-24 | 2 | 0 | 821 |
| 2022-03-25 | 65 | 0 | 886 |
| 2022-03-26 | 0 | 158 | 728 |
| 2022-03-27 | 2 | 387 | 343 |
| 2022-03-28 | 80 | 82 | 341 |
| 2022-03-29 | 65 | 72 | 334 |
| 2022-03-30 | 85 | 64 | 355 |
| 2022-03-31 | 26 | 32 | 349 |
| 2022-04-01 | 72 | 100 | 321 |
| 2022-04-02 | 4 | 30 | 295 |
| 2022-04-03 | 0 | 10 | 285 |
| 2022-04-04 | 155 | 124 | 316 |
| 2022-04-05 | 62 | 32 | 346 |
| 2022-04-06 | 34 | 27 | 353 |
| 2022-04-07 | 25 | 34 | 344 |
| 2022-04-08 | 23 | 36 | 331 |
| 2022-04-10 | 53 | 87 | 297 |
| 2022-04-11 | 2 | 2 | 297 |
| 2022-04-12 | 6 | 22 | 281 |
| 2022-04-13 | 17 | 14 | 284 |
| 2022-04-14 | 73 | 226 | 131 |
| 2022-04-15 | 61 | 40 | 152 |
| 2022-04-16 | 75 | 105 | 122 |
| 2022-04-17 | 0 | 12 | 110 |
| 2022-04-18 | 51 | 6 | 155 |
| 2022-04-19 | 99 | 40 | 214 |
| 2022-04-20 | 0 | 3 | 211 |
| 2022-04-21 | 103 | 151 | 163 |
| day | build sheets | window stickers | backlog |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-03-19 | 8,882 | 8,047 | 835 |
| 2022-03-20 | 100 | 77 | 858 |
| 2022-03-21 | 206 | 135 | 929 |
| 2022-03-22 | 122 | 100 | 951 |
| 2022-03-23 | 325 | 4 | 1,272 |
| 2022-03-24 | 8 | 0 | 1,280 |
| 2022-03-25 | 184 | 0 | 1,464 |
| 2022-03-26 | 0 | 310 | 1,154 |
| 2022-03-27 | 6 | 765 | 395 |
| 2022-03-28 | 211 | 208 | 398 |
| 2022-03-29 | 176 | 161 | 413 |
| 2022-03-30 | 181 | 240 | 354 |
| 2022-03-31 | 60 | 63 | 351 |
| 2022-04-01 | 247 | 222 | 376 |
| 2022-04-02 | 0 | 90 | 286 |
| 2022-04-03 | 0 | 59 | 227 |
| 2022-04-04 | 247 | 169 | 305 |
| 2022-04-05 | 62 | 49 | 318 |
| 2022-04-06 | 84 | 68 | 334 |
| 2022-04-07 | 94 | 104 | 324 |
| 2022-04-08 | 147 | 114 | 357 |
| 2022-04-10 | 320 | 334 | 343 |
| 2022-04-11 | 14 | 11 | 346 |
| 2022-04-12 | 77 | 147 | 276 |
| 2022-04-13 | 96 | 71 | 301 |
| 2022-04-14 | 218 | 218 | 301 |
| 2022-04-15 | 33 | 49 | 285 |
| 2022-04-16 | 31 | 110 | 206 |
| 2022-04-17 | 0 | 24 | 182 |
| 2022-04-18 | 126 | 5 | 303 |
| 2022-04-19 | 238 | 64 | 477 |
| 2022-04-20 | 0 | 8 | 469 |
| 2022-04-21 | 250 | 282 | 437 |
Unfortunately I don't have the details about how many have been ordered. All I have access to is how many have build sheets, and of, those, how many have window stickers.@Ratbert: How many High Tides have been ordered?
| day | build sheets | window stickers | backlog |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-03-19 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| 2022-03-20 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2022-03-21 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2022-03-22 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2022-03-23 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2022-03-24 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2022-03-25 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2022-03-26 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2022-03-27 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2022-03-28 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2022-03-29 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2022-03-30 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2022-03-31 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2022-04-01 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2022-04-02 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2022-04-03 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2022-04-04 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2022-04-05 | 5 | 0 | 5 |
| 2022-04-06 | 18 | 0 | 23 |
| 2022-04-07 | 29 | 0 | 52 |
| 2022-04-08 | 33 | 0 | 85 |
| 2022-04-10 | 82 | 0 | 167 |
| 2022-04-11 | 0 | 0 | 167 |
| 2022-04-12 | 20 | 2 | 185 |
| 2022-04-13 | 21 | 2 | 204 |
| 2022-04-14 | 45 | 8 | 241 |
| 2022-04-15 | 17 | 9 | 249 |
| 2022-04-16 | 15 | 18 | 246 |
| 2022-04-17 | 0 | 7 | 239 |
| 2022-04-18 | 28 | 3 | 264 |
| 2022-04-19 | 28 | 27 | 265 |
| 2022-04-20 | 0 | 3 | 262 |
| 2022-04-21 | 54 | 50 | 266 |
Thank you for this data. The 4xE are being built on a greater daily frequency, besides the date of 3/19/2022. This does lineup with what I see in Crypto. However, without knowing how many actual orders, it is difficult to say this is an issue. For instance, if there are more 4xE orders than 2.0L, then we would expect more 4xE built on a daily basis.About 2x as many with 2.0 engines than 4xe. There also seems to be quite a few more 4xes waiting on being finalized after receiving a build sheet.
I'm thinking that it might be useful to include totals for these tables.
Instances of 2.0L I4 DOHC DI Turbo Engine w/ ESS over time:
day build sheets window stickers backlog 2022-03-19 15,816 15,078 7382022-03-20 88 71 7552022-03-21 101 224 6322022-03-22 90 97 6252022-03-23 194 0 8192022-03-24 2 0 8212022-03-25 65 0 8862022-03-26 0 158 7282022-03-27 2 387 3432022-03-28 80 82 3412022-03-29 65 72 3342022-03-30 85 64 3552022-03-31 26 32 3492022-04-01 72 100 3212022-04-02 4 30 2952022-04-03 0 10 2852022-04-04 155 124 3162022-04-05 62 32 3462022-04-06 34 27 3532022-04-07 25 34 3442022-04-08 23 36 3312022-04-10 53 87 2972022-04-11 2 2 2972022-04-12 6 22 2812022-04-13 17 14 2842022-04-14 73 226 1312022-04-15 61 40 1522022-04-16 75 105 1222022-04-17 0 12 1102022-04-18 51 6 1552022-04-19 99 40 2142022-04-20 0 3 2112022-04-21 103 151 163
Instances of 2.0L I4 DOHC DI Turbo PHEV Engine over time:
day build sheets window stickers backlog 2022-03-19 8,882 8,047 8352022-03-20 100 77 8582022-03-21 206 135 9292022-03-22 122 100 9512022-03-23 325 4 1,2722022-03-24 8 0 1,2802022-03-25 184 0 1,4642022-03-26 0 310 1,1542022-03-27 6 765 3952022-03-28 211 208 3982022-03-29 176 161 4132022-03-30 181 240 3542022-03-31 60 63 3512022-04-01 247 222 3762022-04-02 0 90 2862022-04-03 0 59 2272022-04-04 247 169 3052022-04-05 62 49 3182022-04-06 84 68 3342022-04-07 94 104 3242022-04-08 147 114 3572022-04-10 320 334 3432022-04-11 14 11 3462022-04-12 77 147 2762022-04-13 96 71 3012022-04-14 218 218 3012022-04-15 33 49 2852022-04-16 31 110 2062022-04-17 0 24 1822022-04-18 126 5 3032022-04-19 238 64 4772022-04-20 0 8 4692022-04-21 250 282 437
3/19 was when I first started gathering build sheets and window stickers. That's why there's such a massive clump there.Thank you for this data. The 4xE are being built on a greater daily frequency, besides the date of 3/19/2022. This does lineup with what I see in Crypto. However, without knowing how many actual orders, it is difficult to say this is an issue. For instance, if there are more 4xE orders than 2.0L, then we would expect more 4xE built on a daily basis.
Maybe there's something around crowd-sourcing the highest known VIN number numeric portion?Please let me know if anyone figures out a way to determine how many orders have been placed. We're all somewhat blind in that area.
Yeah, I guess I do approximately know how many orders have been placed since I know the highest sequence number with a build sheet. What I lack is any details before build sheet. E.g. what POCs contain.Maybe there's something around crowd-sourcing the highest known VIN number numeric portion?
Much as you've determined the VIN ranges for the months?
But that's just for jeeps, not for specific configs.
For that, something like crypto-stickers, where folks crowd-source enter their POCs?
It would be a random sampling.... but statistics could be drawn from the sample...