Ask Ratbert

[GatorWrangler]

Build sheets by their VIN creation month:

Month	Count	% Overall	% for Month
October	11,004​	17.2​	84.6​
November	9,531​	14.9​	76.3​
December	23,815​	37.3​	73.3​
January or February	19,512​	30.5​	36.1​
March	25​	0.0​	?​

I'm part of December, so that encompasses 37.3% of build sheets that have been created and 73.3% of December's builds now have build sheets. I'm part of that 26.7% that's still in D.

Note that we have a pretty good idea of when most VINs were created except for January and February, so those are lumped together for now. I'm using @dahacker 's analysis as well as other input that I've received.

If you ordered early or late January, or early or late February, then please let me know your sequence number (last 6 of your VIN) and when you got your VIN.

I too am part of that 26.7% that's still in D for December.

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[Blanco802]

I too am part of that 26.7% that's still in D for December.

Same. Amazing analysis though. Nice work @Ratbert

 

[HydroblueLA]

Build sheets by their VIN creation month:

Month	Count	% Overall	% for Month
October	11,004​	17.2​	84.6​
November	9,531​	14.9​	76.3​
December	23,815​	37.3​	73.3​
January or February	19,512​	30.5​	36.1​
March	25​	0.0​	?​

I'm part of December, so that encompasses 37.3% of build sheets that have been created and 73.3% of December's builds now have build sheets. I'm part of that 26.7% that's still in D.

Note that we have a pretty good idea of when most VINs were created except for January and February, so those are lumped together for now. I'm using @dahacker 's analysis as well as other input that I've received.

If you ordered early or late January, or early or late February, then please let me know your sequence number (last 6 of your VIN) and when you got your VIN.

Edit: please post your sequence number details here so they can be collected and updated in one place.

I ordered 1/26 VIN 185428
Fully optioned Sahara Altitude, 3 piece hard top 2.0T

 

[Ratbert]

I've extracted all of the window stickers for the builds, so now I can tell some details of what's actually been built.

While November and December have a similar number of build sheets the number actually built for December is significantly less.

These stats will change, of course, once we more accurately determine what VINs are in each month.

month	% w/build sheets	% built
October	84.6​	77.1​
November	76.3​	69.8​
December	73.3​	48.8​
January or February	36.1​	23.4​
March	0.0​	0.0​

 

[Trini]

December '21 colors. I didn't realize that black was so common.

Color	Count	Percent
Black Clear Coat	4830	22
Bright White Clear Coat	4298	19
Granite Crystal Met. Clear Coat	3068	14
Sting-Gray Clear Coat	2411	11
Limited Edition Tuscadero Pearl Coat	1634	7
Firecracker Red C/C	1456	7
Snazzberry Pearl Coat	1445	6
Hydro Blue Pearl Coat	1343	6
Sarge Green Clear Coat	1247	6
Silver Zynith Clear Coat	531	2

Top 3 states by a decent margin: CA, TX, and FL.

From the bottom up: WY, VT, SD, ND, AK, MT.

There are a crapload of Jeeps in CO, but we're 19th.

Team Black and CA repping here

 

[Ratbert]

I've used your input to update this data. Thanks.

 

[Rjstevens]

I've used your input to update this data. Thanks.

I don’t have an 11/30, but my 11/29 order is 124794. It is built and in the last stage of shipping.

 

[Ratbert]

I've been wondering (and I think @dahacker has too) about how many sequence numbers actually get assigned. I was thinking that huge chunks don't get used and wanted to know if that was accurate, so yesterday afternoon I ran my system against 2020's sequence numbers 140,000 through 239,999 (100,000 potential VINs). That's the chunk of VINs that includes my totaled JLUR. I'm using a prior year's VINs since we know that any that could be built have already been built. It's static data at this point.

98,379 (98%) of those 100,000 sequence numbers have build sheets. That's quite a bit higher than I was expecting.

79,167 of those with build sheets are for the United States (80%).
76,742 of the United States build sheets have window stickers (97%).

84,505 of the 100k have accessible window stickers. Note that we don't have access to window stickers for countries like Canada, so that ~84% doesn't reflect how many builds resulted in vehicles.

 

[Ratbert]

I don’t have an 11/30, but my 11/29 order is 124794. It is built and in the last stage of shipping.

Thanks, we're getting closer

 

[eniveparg]

I've been wondering (and I think @dahacker has too) about how many sequence numbers actually get assigned. I was thinking that huge chunks don't get used and wanted to know if that was accurate, so yesterday afternoon I ran my system against 2020's sequence numbers 140,000 through 239,999 (100,000 potential VINs). That's the chunk of VINs that includes my totaled JLUR. I'm using a prior year's VINs since we know that any that could be built have already been built. It's static data at this point.

98,379 (98%) of those 100,000 sequence numbers have build sheets. That's quite a bit higher than I was expecting.

79,167 of those with build sheets are for the United States (80%).
76,742 of the United States build sheets have window stickers (97%).

84,505 of the 100k have accessible window stickers. Note that we don't have access to window stickers for countries like Canada, so that ~84% doesn't reflect how many builds resulted in vehicles.

Can you tell if they reserve blocks of sequence numbers for other countries? That may be why it appears they are skipping numbers this year.

 

[dahacker]

98,379 (98%) of those 100,000 sequence numbers have build sheets. That's quite a bit higher than I was expecting.

Well that definitely gives serious credence to the current 2022 analysis of percent complete.

 

[Ratbert]

Can you tell if they reserve blocks of sequence numbers for other countries? That may be why it appears they are skipping numbers this year.

I don't think that I'd be able to tell the difference between a reserved block and a batched chunk of requests coming in. A big chunk of right-hand drive Wranglers ordered from the UK could mean that they had a reserved block or their orders were batched up until they hit some limit.

 

[DocCola]

2D vs 4D:
4D: 88%
2D: 12%

2D vs 4D auto / stick
4D auto: 86%
2D auto: 11%
4D stick: 2%
2D stick: 1%

Stick vs auto by 2D or 4D
2D auto: 90%
2D stick: 10%

4D auto: 98%
4D stick: 2%

As you suspected: significantly more 2D buyers choose a stick than 4D buyers.

That’s honestly fascinating to me. My 4 previous Jeeps (2 TJs, 2 JKURs) have all been manual. My ordered JLURD is my first automatic Wrangler. After test driving a few different JL engines with autos including a diesel I know I’ll be happy with it but I would have ordered the diesel with the manual if I could have.

 

[Powelligator]

That’s honestly fascinating to me. My 4 previous Jeeps (2 TJs, 2 JKURs) have all been manual. My ordered JLURD is my first automatic Wrangler. After test driving a few different JL engines with autos including a diesel I know I’ll be happy with it but I would have ordered the diesel with the manual if I could have.

When I saw this data it made me a bit sad, as it told me that the JL is probably going to be the last Jeep ever offered with a manual transmission. Face it, with only a 3% take rate coupled with the fact that it's only offered with the base gas engine, it's not long for this world. In other news FCA is talking about a new inline 6 design, nowhere have they mentioned that it'll be offered with a stick. They can expect that they will get flack from the 2-Door manual purists, but they got that in 1997 when the TJ replaced the leaf springs with coils, and again in 2007 when the V6 replaced the 4.0L. Time marches on...

 

[DocCola]

When I saw this data it made me a bit sad, as it told me that the JL is probably going to be the last Jeep ever offered with a manual transmission. Face it, with only a 3% take rate coupled with the fact that it's only offered with the base gas engine, it's not long for this world. In other news FCA is talking about a new inline 6 design, nowhere have they mentioned that it'll be offered with a stick. They can expect that they will get flack from the 2-Door manual purists, but they got that in 1997 when the TJ replaced the leaf springs with coils, and again in 2007 when the V6 replaced the 4.0L. Time marches on...

I agree completely. I hope the manual remains available for a long time to come. I waited this long to order mine partly to see if Jeep would wake up and offer the manual across the line. But alas, no luck. I’ll still enjoy this Jeep (when it arrives) with the auto as it is a pretty good slushbox, but I would love to see them offer manuals with more engines.

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