JL Window Sticker and Build Sheet Order Tracking

[FinnCustomKnives]

Absolutely love this thing. The diesel torque is fantastic.

Ordered 2/6, got to dealer last week, picked up 3/16. Of course had to do the obligatory antenna mod before leaving the dealer lot.

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[4father]

I don't include them because they're not statistically different from any other feature in terms of build time.

...
My general hope with that table is to identify the top dozen features/properties where we can state with some confidence that they might be responsible for a delay, which is why I've been restricting it to a minimum build percentage, and a minimum difference from the average number of build days.

That makes sense... thanks for clearing it up for me!

 

[JimmyZ]

And the best part was my 5 year old's reaction the entire 2 hour ride home

 

[Bloody Marty]

I went to TRACK NEW & added in my VIN with other info & it comes back invalid nickname?? Am I doing something wrong? Just got my VIN yesterday after ordering Monday. 1st timer ordering one here....
Thanks

 

[scooter540]

And the best part was my 5 year old's reaction the entire 2 hour ride home

Congrats on the new wheels! She's a beaut

 

[Gazelle]

Gazelle, is there something special about tomorrow that makes you think we might get our stickers?

Just trying to stay positive & hopeful, really, while looking at the rumors going around on our FB group. I pay particular attention to those few members who work on the 4xe project. Personally, I've given up on guessing the release date. After ordering in Nov, I'd just really like a delivery in April.

Looking at the Crypto output today, I see no flood of "0 door" models. If they're released en masse, 4xe's will flood the database for a day. That would be fun to see.

 

[jsore]

I had a graph of this at one point; though I don't quite remember why I haven't included it in my reports, it's probably because the cycles are too short compared to the general request-to-build times per model. (I also worry about posting stuff that's too mathematical and those graphs can be hard to read since the standard deviation is kinda wide.)

Of particular note, have you factored the manual transmission recall work into your 3.6L delay window? They probably saturated their parking lot with those models and switched over to others.

I have seen some model cycling previously, yes, but don't have a graph handy.

How does a user get raw data. I see the raw data button on the tracker but when selected nothing happens.

 

[AustinWranglers]

I had a graph of this at one point; though I don't quite remember why I haven't included it in my reports, it's probably because the cycles are too short compared to the general request-to-build times per model. (I also worry about posting stuff that's too mathematical and those graphs can be hard to read since the standard deviation is kinda wide.)

Of particular note, have you factored the manual transmission recall work into your 3.6L delay window? They probably saturated their parking lot with those models and switched over to others.

I have seen some model cycling previously, yes, but don't have a graph handy.

Is there an easy way from the data to see which ones are manual transmission? Mine is, so I'm sure that plays a factor in it sitting in "All parts are assembled waiting for the build" (paraphrased the typical JeepChat response) for 3+ weeks.

 

[AustinWranglers]

And Jeep Chat just told me it is in "Paint" so finally movement and hopefully a build sticker within the next couple of days.

 

[BruceA78]

I went to TRACK NEW & added in my VIN with other info & it comes back invalid nickname?? Am I doing something wrong? Just got my VIN yesterday after ordering Monday. 1st timer ordering one here....
Thanks

I don’t believe you can have spaces or special characters for the nickname.

 

[Bloody Marty]

I don’t believe you can have spaces or special characters for the nickname.

You are correct, no space worked!
Thanks

 

[LAWS]

21 Silver Rubicon 6MT Cold Weather, Dual Tops, Towing, Proximity Key, Soft Top Window Bag

Ordered 2/20 VON same day
Vin next week after bugging dealer
Entered production 3/1
Build Sheet Found 3/12
Window Sticker 3/15
Dealer arrival ETA 3/24 - 4/7 (provided from Jeep Chat on 3/17)

 

[nomographer]

tldr: Our data is so noisy and so limited that more-specific graphs don't add much value. Probably.


Here's a brief summary of why I didn't bother with graphs of individual properties, models, transmission types, etc.

Take a look at the graph (https://www.jlwranglerforums.com/fo...build-sheet-order-tracking.12503/post-1432762):

As of the weekend, the median request-to-build time for the past two weeks was 27 days, but 20% of them reached that point in less than 16 days, and 20% of them took more than 45 days. This means that the middle 60% of requests reach a build state in 16-to-45 days. That's a very wide band.

Now look at this graph:

The median is around 34 days, with the 20%--80%/middle 60% between 22dy and 49dy. The median is 7 days slower (right now), but the faster ones are 6dy slower, and the slow ones only 4dy slower. This is the graph just for manual transmissions. I ask you honestly, what difference do you see other than "meh it's a bit higher".

So then, are manual transmissions slower? Yes, as per the weekend post they are averaging 3.46 days slower in the last year. They happen to be about 7dy slower in the last two weeks, so a few days slower than the average, but that only means that 50% won't see the build sheet in 27dy (the overall average), nor even within 30.5dy (3.5dy above average), but in 34dy. But that's around the 60th percentile for the overall graph. (So are you in the 60th percentile with no delay from the MT, or are you in the 50th percentile with a delay in the MT?)

So the issue is you're comparing two probability distributions, trying to figure out if the current averages for builds with different properties are statistically different than the long term average difference for those properties. This is a calculation that can be done, but how many people in this happy little thread want to deal with comparisons between two 3-dimensional graphs.

Suppose those graphs were provided. There's a problem. What if a delay of a few days isn't because of the manual transmission, but because of a 3.6L delay, or because there are more orders for manual Rubicons than Sports/Saharas which happen to come with a fuel door cover that is delayed. So now you need a graph for each property and get to compare the percentiles for 740 different items. Having fun yet? This can also be calculated; see "correlations".

Let's go full bore, throttle wide open. Let's automate all the stats. Let's throw a regression model at it to detect deviations. Let's build a machine learning predictor so you can put in your ordered items and have it predict your build date (yes, I thought of this)... Well there's a problem, we only have data from cryptostickers, which is voluntary, and some build dates precede the request dates because people entered their order date incorrectly.

So yeah, what's the point? We could "know" these things by saying "manual transmissions in the last two weeks are slower than the annual average delay, but for a single build there's a 33% chance it will build faster than average".

I have harvested a goodly amount of data, though, so I'm willing to listen to a request for a graph. Just be sure it means what you think it means.

 

[nomographer]

How does a user get raw data. I see the raw data button on the tracker but when selected nothing happens.

Yeah, I haven't seen data in that tab since Octoberish. I think the 2021 model updates was around the time that died.

 

[BruceA78]

You are correct, no space worked!
Thanks

No worries, I struggled with that too when I was entering my details! Hopefully your build goes nice and quick.

Cheers!