General thoughts on ICE depreciation?

[graytrucks]

My current plan is to keep buying new V8 ICEs for as long as I can. When the 392 was announced I snatched one up. This summer I may place an order for the 2023 Range Rover Sport SVR. I will keep repeating until there are no V8s left and then I guess I need to stockpile parts…

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[rickinAZ]

For me the EV issue is much like the home solar power products. I like the idea, but technological advancements happen so quickly that I'm afraid to commit for fear of being left stuck with outdated products. The horse/buggy folks probably felt the same stress 120 years ago.

The biggest thing that would drive me quicker to EVs is the need to distance ourselves from the Middle East. That relationship has driven bad stuff for longer than all of us have been alive. Let's just let those folks fight amongst themselves without involving the rest of the world. They've been at war for thousand of years.

Now...if wind power just didn't threaten the bird population, I'd be all in.

 

[Initial-Jeep]

For me the EV issue is much like the home solar power products. I like the idea, but technological advancements happen so quickly that I'm afraid to commit for fear of being left stuck with outdated products. The horse/buggy folks probably felt the same stress 120 years ago.

The biggest thing that would drive me quicker to EVs is the need to distance ourselves from the Middle East. That relationship has driven bad stuff for longer than all of us have been alive. Let's just let those folks fight amongst themselves without involving the rest of the world. They've been at war for thousand of years.

Now...if wind power just didn't threaten the bird population, I'd be all in.

I have yet to see home solar power be worth it when TCO is properly calculated and that's something I really want to be worth it...I like reliable, battery-backed whole-house power on the cheap.

As far as "fighting amongst themselves"...umm...9/11?

The History of Jihad by Robert Spencer is an informative, enlightening read.

 

[Blanco802]

I tend to agree with most folks here:
- Electrical infrastructure needs huge investment and will take time to implement
- ICE vehicle demand will continue to be robust both in new and used car markets
- Battery technology advancement may put pressure on existing EV resale values
- Lack of rebates down the road coupled with higher commodity costs of battery material may cause an ever larger divergence in pricing between EV and ICE vehicles
- Advancement in EV range in cold climates will be important as well

Folks should buy what they want. EV adoption should continue to trend higher, but I don't see it being half the market in the next decade or two. Since most manufacturers are moving away from ICE production, it may actually lead to increased demand in the used car market over time.

 

[roaniecowpony]

...

Now...if wind power just didn't threaten the bird population, I'd be all in.

Quail and chukar don't fly that high.

 

[INCRHULK]

Ummm is this the same as how cash is going away and we’re all going to digital currency ???? even if manufacturers are shifting away and states are restricting the sales of ice vehicles, I don’t see this happening! Not everyone can buy or afford a new electric car and there is always going to be a market for used ice vehicles so I don’t see the depreciations being that much! If your car might not be worth much in one state cause of the ice restrictions on vehicles you can sell to any other state ?‍ People ship vehicles daily across country! Besides you can always sell your ice vehicles overseas and they will pay you way more then US market value!!

How I’ll be rolling if my state puts a restriction on ice vehicles…. ??

Jack ass.

 

[runningshoes]

Interesting replies and thanks for the viewpoints. It seems most people think that it’ll take years and it will be a slow adoption of EVs and you might be right.
If 2 years ago you’d have asked me if I’d be interested in EVs, I’d have said I don’t think so. Fast forward to today, and we have a worldwide vehicle shortage and high gas prices, and I have 2 EVs preordered. Things can change more quickly than some think.
Something to take into account is most of the pressure to switch to EVs comes from the rest of the world. China represents 50% of worldwide car sales and their adoption rate is high (about 25% of sales are EV in china), and Western Europe is about 15% of worldwide car sales and they are even higher in adoption rate (90% of new cars sold in Norway are EVs). Just those 2 alone represent 65% of auto sales worldwide.

In the past and still our American car companies supplied a large portion of world with its cars, but if they don’t switch and start to invest in EVs…….Who will they sell to? It could be that the investment into ice will end and those dollars will get pushed to the EV side of R&D. They’ll probably still build ice for awhile, but money developing new ones or improving existing ones may dry up.

?‍?‍?‍maybe I’m crazy, but I’m getting while the getting is good. My wife’s new id4 cost 41k, and we get 10k off our taxes and 3 years of free charging (which at todays gas prices represents about another 10k). Plus trade in right now on her ice RAV4 is only 2k less than we paid for it in 2019. I’m placing my bet that the electric will depreciate slower than the ice.

My personal POV is that currently the EV market in the US is very much oriented in terms of investment and target audience towards upper middle class (and above) households using the EV as a second vehicle or for those that use it 98% of the time for local trips and once a year or so go on a longer trip. Having said that, the US is not the market to watch for EV adoption since so much of the lifestyle is vehicle based as opposed to other countries.

On the numbers above, China is only about half of your 50% of global sales (roughly 24MM out of 70MM new vehicles) and in the US, out of the 14-15MM new vehicles, easily over half are trucks and SUV's which further slow the adoption curve of EV's unless you can afford the Rivian or the new trucks coming out from the Big 3.

The tech is clearly here for EV production and Mercedes just showed a 1,000 + KM test drive with the new EQXX prototype, but here again, it's likely going to be a 6-figure vehicle. I also see laws like Washington State's banning registration of existing ICE vehicles in 2030 as non-starters so the conversion will be slower than the politicians say.

 

[INCRHULK]

When new battery technology doubles the range of new EV’s the current EV depreciation will be????

Minimal, you can swap battery packs, the existing "used" packs will still be usable for stationary deployments, and they can be almost fully recycled. So when new battery systems come online, you'll get cheaper batteries, better range, and still have a car with great value.

 

[rickinAZ]

I have yet to see home solar power be worth it when TCO is properly calculated and that's something I really want to be worth it...I like reliable, battery-backed whole-house power on the cheap.

As far as "fighting amongst themselves"...umm...9/11?

The History of Jihad by Robert Spencer is an informative, enlightening read.

To clarify: fighting among themselves (exclusively) is the desired state. [Actually...I'd prefer that they live in peace, but that's not going to happen any time soon]. 911 came about due to our involvement in their politics/culture. And...we only do that because of oil - no other reason. They see us as invaders - wouldn't we feel the same way if other countries had boots-on-the-ground in America?

Let's get out of there as quickly as we can.

 

[dalema]

Hopefully the Porsche folk can successfully develop their synthetic fuel as an alternative.

I know electricity is supposed to be renewable, but if there were as many EVs on the road right now as ICE - would electricity still be as cheap or demand would increase that cost. It's already super expensive in CA unless you produce yourself (after making that $35K investment), which doesn't help you when out on the road.

 

[roaniecowpony]

I tend to agree with most folks here:
- Electrical infrastructure needs huge investment and will take time to implement
- ICE vehicle demand will continue to be robust both in new and used car markets
- Battery technology advancement may put pressure on existing EV resale values
- Lack of rebates down the road coupled with higher commodity costs of battery material may cause an ever larger divergence in pricing between EV and ICE vehicles
- Advancement in EV range in cold climates will be important as well

Folks should buy what they want. EV adoption should continue to trend higher, but I don't see it being half the market in the next decade or two. Since most manufacturers are moving away from ICE production, it may actually lead to increased demand in the used car market over time.

Exactly. The government has no damn business requiring a technology be used. I'm all for government to help kick start a technology. I'm not for requiring it. The market for electric cars would take care of itself as the technology matured enough to make it competently competitive with ICE vehicles. It's time we get our government to work for us, instead of themselves.

 

[jaymz]

None of those EV mandates will come to pass when they are supposed to. They’ll be repealed, or they’ll be ignored. The technology required for an EV to equal a gas or diesel powered vehicle in every practical way simply doesn’t exist - and regardless of what the tree huggers say - it likely won’t exist anytime soon.

The same people that enacted EV mandates are the same people that pushed EV’s on everyone with tax and other incentives, yet didn’t realize that they were not only giving away “free” money, but they seemed to forget that more EV’s means less gas tax revenue, yet still the same amount of vehicles causing wear and tear. Lose, lose situation.

 

[roaniecowpony]

When new battery technology doubles the range of new EV’s the current EV depreciation will be????

Zero, actually a net gain, thanks to runaway inflation.

 

[roaniecowpony]

None of those EV mandates will come to pass when they are supposed to. They’ll be repealed, or they’ll be ignored. The technology required for an EV to equal a gas or diesel powered vehicle in every practical way simply doesn’t exist - and regardless of what the tree huggrers say - it likely won’t exist anytime soon.

The same people that enacted EV mandates are the same people that pushed EV’s on everyone with tax and other incentives, yet didn’t realize that they were not only giving away “free” money, but they seemed to forget that more EV’s means less gas tax revenue, yet still the same amount of vehicles causing wear and tear. Lose, lose situation.

I don't think they forgot anything. The middle class will pay for it. The middle class will be the last to adopt EVs, and by then, there will be no subsidies, and there will be another type of tax to pay for roads.

 

[aldo98229]

California set zero-emissions vehicle requirements for automakers twice in the past. Both times the deadline was allowed to expire.

No one knows what will happen this time. But I don’t see battery technology, electric infrastructure, and consumer adoption moving fast enough to ban sale of all ICEs by 2035.

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