General thoughts on ICE depreciation?

[av8or]

I’ve posed this exact question on a Rivian forum so I thought it might be interesting to see the take from this forum.

I’m all in on EVs, so it might be a little more obvious what I think. I’ve had a few conversations with friends and family about when the depreciation graph for ice vehicles will get very steep and to my surprise most of them think little will change in this regard for quite a while.
With so many states that are looking to end ice passenger car sales by 2030-2035, and car loans that get stretched out 6 and 7 years…..When do you think you want to get rid of your ice cars?


https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/washington-state-plans-ban-non-electric-vehicles-2030-rcna21683
Thats 7.5 years away.
Might be the first of many states to want to be greener than their neighbor.

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[Jtclayton612]

When will I get rid of my ICE cars? Probably in 20 years or so or if it falls apart earlier than that. I’ll still probably buy a used ICE, I don’t see battery tech getting where I’d like it to be within the next 8 years to say nothing of the charging station situation. Mostly for road-tripping.

also we’ll need to see less than $10k EVs that people actually want to buy. A lot of people can’t even afford a $15k-$20k car.Plenty of people shopping in the $2000-$5000 dollar range

Edit: to say nothing of the towing situation as well.

 

[Heimkehr]

I think the limits of our current electric infrastructure are such that well-meaning rulemakers are going to have to contend with a reality that they can't argue away.

 

[Antonio]

Ummm is this the same as how cash is going away and we’re all going to digital currency even if manufacturers are shifting away and states are restricting the sales of ice vehicles, I don’t see this happening! Not everyone can buy or afford a new electric car and there is always going to be a market for used ice vehicles so I don’t see the depreciations being that much! If your car might not be worth much in one state cause of the ice restrictions on vehicles you can sell to any other state People ship vehicles daily across country! Besides you can always sell your ice vehicles overseas and they will pay you way more then US market value!!

How I’ll be rolling if my state puts a restriction on ice vehicles….

 

[Carolina Jeeper]

I think it's too early to make any accurate predictions.

The infrastructure to support the changeover to electric vehicles is not keeping pace in my opinion. To me they are way off on their plans for the future. They can't even plan for enough regular parking spaces, so do you think they have an adequate plan for enough charging stations lol.

Too many uncertainties exist right now to persuade me to buy an electric vehicle.

Unlikely that you'll see an end to engine powered vehicles in our lifetime. Take a look around at how many there are and think about how many people and organizations cannot rely on only electric vehicles.

 

[TX_Ovrlnd]

The pacific coast has some weird mf'ers there for sure. I've lived in Cali and Washington state so I speak from first hand experiences. The same people pushing the EVs are the same ones influencing the depreciation charts to help push their vehicles, it's a good IO campaign.

We're still a ways off from a solid EV supporting infrastructure and battery technology. It will happen in our lifetime but it's not going to be 5 years from now (I really hope I am proven wrong).

 

[Sublime]

Battery cars, so damn great we have to ban their competition.

 

[YippieKiYayMrFalcon]

I don’t think most if any of the proposed or existing bans on ICE vehicles include used vehicle sales. I think there will still be a solid market for used ones for quite some time.

 

[alleycat]

 

[NULL POINTER]

When an EV can give me the room and cargo capacity of my F150, the 650-700 mile range of my 36 gallon gasoline tank on my F150 with cargo and passengers, and the ability to refuel and be back on the road in 15 minutes, I'll stick with my ICE vehicles.

I have to laugh at California mandating EV sales. The state has rolling brownouts now, and worse in the summer. How is their electric grid going to keep up with EV charging demand when it cannot meet current demand?

Typical Government, no planning for an orderly and smooth transition from fossil fuels to other power sources. Just like laying off Keystone pipe line workers making good pay, and promising them jobs in green energy making solar panels. The layoffs happened, the green energy replacement jobs for those workers have not happened, well maybe in China where all the solar panels come from.

 

[Spank]

When it's just as fast and convenient to charge a battery as it is to fill a tank, you'll see mass adoption to EV, but that ain't happening anytime soon.

 

[rkwfxd]

ICE will be here for decades. It has taken the City of LA decades to put parking meters everywhere. I can only imagine how long it will take to install curb side charging stations for the tens of thousands of apartment dwellers that have to park on the street.

 

[JABCAT]

EVs are practical for a very small % of the population, and the infrastructure outside of CA to support a massive increase in EV purchases just isn't there. Add to that the cost of EVs prohibits a large % of the population from purchasing them.

I'll use our family as a practical example. My wife requires an SUV for her job. Currently we have a 2020 Grand Cherokee, and that is about at the bottom limit of the size she needs. We're probably ordering a new GCL in the next couple months, as that will work better for our needs. She drives an average of 25-30k miles per year, sometimes she needs to drive 300+ miles one way, and needs to get there in a timely manner. The only current EV that could meet the size requirement would be a Tesla Model X, and that is double the price of a GC.

Many of the hospitals at which my wife works do not have charging stations, or if they do they are for the doctors only. Using Tesla's route planner, many routes would take her way out of her way and add sometimes hours onto her commute time. When my wife is attempting to get somewhere to help save a patient's life, needing to stop for 30 minutes to charge her vehicle just won't cut it. And while that seems far-fetched, it's actually happened as her co-worker drives a model-s and has called her several times asking her to cover a case because he has to stop & charge his car. To me that is absolutely ridiculous, and tbh, he should be fired. That's a separate rant.

So back to the original question, if anything, ICE vehicles will continue to maintain or increase in value when manufacturers decide to go all EV.

 

[Fatalis12B]

When do you think you want to get rid of your ice cars?

Short answer...NEVER.

 

[aldo98229]

Some factoids:

1. Roughly 10% of US households buy a NEW vehicle in a normal year
   • The US new-vehicle market is around 15M per year, out of about 150M households
   • This percent is lower now due to the ongoing shortages; current US annual sales are running at 13M-14M at the moment
2. The USED vehicle market is twice as large as the new vehicle market

Taking these two facts into consideration, it becomes easy to see that the national vehicle fleet is going to remain predominantly ICE long after individual states ban their sale.

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