2018 Two Door Rubicon Depreciation

[lonz]

I was thinking about selling my 4 door Rubicon JL and buying a new 2 door Rubicon JL. I found a few brand new two-door 2018 Rubicons out there, and decided to check the resale value via Kelly Blue Book (whenever I look to buy a late model vehicle, I always first check the valuation via Kelly Blue Book, so that I can gain a clear understanding of what level of depreciation I'll take on). I know full well that ALL vehicles depreciate. I just usually like to minimize it as much as I can.

Anyhow, I was stunned to see that a brand new 2018 2 door Rubicon with an MSRP of $53k is showing only $34k for trade-in, and only $36k for private party resale. I priced it in "very good" condition, with only 22 miles on it. I chose "very good" condition b/c every dealer I've ever traded with has always told me that no vehicles are in excellent condition.

The dealer wants $47k for it, but after seeing how much of a hit I'll take immediately, I decided to pass. I can accept some level of depreciation, but definitely not 10 large! I guess I'm just surprised since usually Wranglers hold their value so well. I know my 4 door has held its value tremendously! I guess 2 doors are just less desirable these days... Maybe they'll throw some more incentives at them soon... Not really sure what my point is... Guess I'm just wanting to see what others are experiencing with their depreciation levels of their JL.

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[Rhinebeck01]

@lonz

These days, dealers and wise sellers/buyers, don't use Kelly Blue Book, alone or in the process, to determine vehicle value.

 

[Sorbs]

You do realize KBB works for the dealers, not the customer, right? Also, if you research the forum, on a new JLR order you can save nearly $10k off MSRP.

 

[wrc777]

You do realize KBB works for the dealers, not the customer, right? Also, if you research the forum, on a new JLR order you can save nearly $10k off MSRP.

From what I have experienced kbb is higher than what a dealer will give you.

 

[viper88]

All sources use algorithms. There are not enough transactions yet for KBB or any other data base. A lot of dealers I know use the auction results from Mannheim or Arena to get an idea of wholesale transaction prices. It's way too early to get a accurate idea of what future wholesale is. There just are not enough units sold and transactions for a average yet. Keep in mind there are additional fees/expenses after the hammer price so dealers actually pay more then what they show you. They have additional cost to transport cars back and forth and there are selling/buying fees.

I know some dealer who do this for a brand new model where there is little to no data yet. They calculate about 25% under msrp for the first year depreciation. This is for most cars on average. A $50K msrp JLR would roughly wholesale at $37.5K the first year assuming miles and condition are good. The same $50K msrp JLR could be bought for roughly $43.5K retail. So approximately about $6K depreciation for the first year with average miles. This is a very rough estimate but it leaves enough meat on the bone for any used car manager to make a doable deal with someone and not scare them off. I think there are used car buyers who would pay $40K-$41K for a cream puff, low milage, one year old JLR that had a $50K msrp. There is a lot more margin/profit in used cars then new cars. The used car manager makes $3K and the used car buyer saves $3K. Hell, the used car dealer can make a additional $500-$1000 easily in financing.

Personally I'd sell it myself and cut the dealers $3K out of the equation. I'd try selling for $40K-$41K, maybe even $42K myself. There are other worthwhile reasons to buy from a private party. Here Illinois anyone buying a used car from a private seller saves big time in sales tax. The max sales tax owed in IL for a private party sale that is $30K+ is $1500. In Chicago that is easily over $2500 in sales tax savings alone. My point is there is a LOT of margin to make a deal even if you sell a one year old JLR for $41K. There will be a educated, savvy, value minded buyer, someone will want it to save thousands.

 

[Sorbs]

From what I have experienced kbb is higher than what a dealer will give you.

That depends on what they are trying to sell you.

 

[tablerock]

Can't win for losing!!! The more they discount the new vehicle-the less yours is worth!!!!!

 

[ViperJon]

Go see what they offer for a used JK now....gruesome. The days of Wranglers having these great resale values are over I think, mainly because there are a zillion out there and a ton of new ones sitting. Even worse for two doors and even worse again for two door manuals.

 

[jayvis]

You do realize KBB works for the dealers, not the customer, right? Also, if you research the forum, on a new JLR order you can save nearly $10k off MSRP.

I say those claims are bogus. Unless the Wrangler is a dealer modified Rubicon with a sticker price of at least $65k, no one is getting $10k off. Dealers would be taking a pretty big loss on deals like that without the aid of big factory incentives.

 

[Sorbs]

I say those claims are bogus. Unless the Wrangler is a dealer modified Rubicon with a sticker price of at least $65k, no one is getting $10k off. Dealers would be taking a pretty big loss on deals like that without the aid of big factory incentives.

I saved $8k last year but my MSRP was $49k, not $53k. I just saved about $10k on my Gladiator Launch Edition.

To those looking for the best deal just need to spend time on this forum looking for the right dealer. I obviously know who that is (Kent, Nampa ID., Stampede CDJR) and many others here do too (now).

I owe this forum for saving me thousands but hey, if you think its bogus, then to each their own...

 

[jayvis]

It's bogus to assume it's happening in all regions of the country. In high sales volume regions, it could be possible because those dealers pay less for their Wrangler inventory and receive more incentives from FCA to move it. You're lucky to get 11% off here in the Midwest. And that's limited to existing dealer stock.

 

[FDXGUY]

It's bogus to assume it's happening in all regions of the country. In high sales volume regions, it could be possible because those dealers pay less for their Wrangler inventory and receive more incentives from FCA to move it. You're lucky to get 11% off here in the Midwest. And that's limited to existing dealer stock.

I agree 100%. Wranglers draw a premium out west. Two months ago I got $41K for my 18JKU private party and was offered 36,500 from a dealer on a trade in. It’s all location.

 

[multicam]

I saved $8k last year but my MSRP was $49k, not $53k. I just saved about $10k on my Gladiator Launch Edition.

To those looking for the best deal just need to spend time on this forum looking for the right dealer. I obviously know who that is (Kent, Nampa ID., Stampede CDJR) and many others here do too (now).

I owe this forum for saving me thousands but hey, if you think its bogus, then to each their own...

@jayvis has a point... I couldn’t have gotten $10k off my JLR, for instance, because that would be $32,241 or 19.9% under invoice. Don’t think anyone is getting that good a deal.

 

[Litfuse]

I just sold my 2018 JLR six speed with 3k miles for $33,500. Sticker was right at 40k and I paid $35,200 before taxes. I had it on the market for almost 3.5 months. I got a lot of low ball offers from members on here and locally through craigslist. Denied all offers and remained patient for the right buyer. The right buyer came along last week and he is extremely happy with the vehicle and purchase price.

At first, I couldn’t believe how much trouble I was having trying to sell the Jeep. In the past, I was always able to sell my Wranglers quickly and for almost what I paid. High resale values for Wranglers are over, unless it is a super clean TJ. For the JL, high initial cost, high production numbers and high number of vehicles in lease programs and fleet sales killed resale, and impacting JK values.

All in all, I would not touch a new left over 18 JL. Be patient and buy a nice used one for a big discount.

 

[lonz]

High resale values for Wranglers are over... All in all, I would not touch a new left over 18 JL. Be patient and buy a nice used one for a big discount.

Yep, agreed, well said! Since 2007, I've owned 9 Wranglers (8 JK's and 1 JL, mainly Rubicons and a few Saharas). Over the years, I've always done really well on resale by buying at or below Employee Pricing (between 5%-7% below invoice), and NEVER trading in. I always sell Private Party, since Wranglers sell themselves.

With this process, I've been able to be at roughly $150 per month in depreciation, month-over-month, from the moment I buy my Wranglers to the moment I sell them. I also never finance my Jeeps, so that I do not incur any finance charges, so that I stay at my $150 per month number. I like to buy and sell every 12 months, so that I'm one of the very few low mileage, newer vehicle, Private Party resellers out there. I'm also quite comfortable driving a $50k Rubicon for $150 a month.

This process has worked really well for me over the years, however, in looking at the recent depreciation of numbers of Wranglers year-over-year, I think my days of buying and selling each year are over. I will not allow myself to go over my $150 cost per month. If I were to pull the trigger on the 2 door Rubicon mentioned above, I'd be at nearly $1,000 per month in depreciation! Ouch! No way, Jose!

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