Will the BEV J70 be scrapped?

[The Last Cowboy]

News reports today are that the $7500 EV tax credit will sunset this year and a $200 fee will be charged for all EV's. The fee will be reduced to $100 for hybrids, but it did not specify if this only applies to plug in Hybrids. Would this kill off the 4xe?

In non CARB states, yes.

A company can build the best products, with the best intentions. If you can’t get the public to buy, the product will fail.

Quality needs to be there from the beginning. You can’t produce substandard products, expecting those who buy them to unknowingly be beta testers, then expect positive results. GM learned this the hard way with passenger car diesels in the late 70s-early 80s. That didn’t seem to stop what’s left of the Big Three from blundering again.

Now, it seems that a large portion of the car buying public has a negative impression of EVs. Good or bad doesn’t matter, positive public opinion is hard to win and easy to lose.

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[Zandcwhite]

In non CARB states, yes.

A company can build the best products, with the best intentions. If you can’t get the public to buy, the product will fail.

Quality needs to be there from the beginning. You can’t produce substandard products, expecting those who buy them to unknowingly be beta testers, then expect positive results. GM learned this the hard way with passenger car diesels in the late 70s-early 80s. That didn’t seem to stop what’s left of the Big Three from blundering again.

Now, it seems that a large portion of the car buying public has a negative impression of EVs. Good or bad doesn’t matter, positive public opinion is hard to win and easy to lose.

The vast majority of the anti-EV crowd has 0 experience with one and know very little about them. Of the little they do know most of it is wrong. Like the repair concerns? Aside from the powertrain is just like any other vehicle. If you're local mechanic can change tie rods or ball joint on a Ford he can do the same on a tesla. The powertrain of a true BEV is so simple it shouldn't need repaired and like a cordless drill it's batteries and an electric motor. Problems with those you obviously go to the dealer. Look at how Jeep handled the crap locker sensors. God only knows how many thousands of axle assemblies they changed under warranty before they finally made the sensor available. Brake pads last for ever because most of the braking is done by the electric motor. There are no oil changes. No transmissions. And then there's the performance. Show me an ICE vehicle that runs a 9s 1/4 mile? Far from stock and likely not street drivable. And yet anyone can buy a model s plaid and beat most people at the track let alone everyone light to light if they feel like it. On street tires no less. And then if you don't feel like enjoying the ridiculous performance you can kick back and let the thing drive for you. Less maintenance, much more simple, ridiculous torque at any rpm, and you can fuel up at home... while you sleep. There are a few niche uses where battery range, charge time, etc aren't there yet but for the vast majority a BEV works and likely better than ICE. They definitely aren't going anywhere. As more people actually experience them they will continue to grow. As they continue to grow they will get better, as that's what completion forces. The anti-EV crowd sounds like the carburetor fans when I was a kid. "I'm not going to know how to work on it" "how am I going to time it" "you mean my car won't run without a computer"? Where are those guys now? People don't like change. People are closed minded. And yet progress still happens and the better product wins.

 

[Ron Texas]

https://www.autoevolution.com/news/...r-months-after-deliveries-started-251448.html

Dodge Daytona R/T EV is canceled after just 4 months of production. That it was built in Canada plus low demand were cited factors.

@The Last Cowboy The $7500 credit is federal and its cancellation will apply to 50 states. Whether CARB states can have their own rules is still up for grabs. The administration intends to cancel the California waiver but there are lawsuits against that (and everything else).

 

[The Last Cowboy]

https://www.autoevolution.com/news/...r-months-after-deliveries-started-251448.html

Dodge Daytona R/T EV is canceled after just 4 months of production. That it was built in Canada plus low demand were cited factors.

@The Last Cowboy The $7500 credit is federal and its cancellation will apply to 50 states. Whether CARB states can have their own rules is still up for grabs. The administration intends to cancel the California waiver but there are lawsuits against that (and everything else).

CA will try to keep paying, and maybe a few other states.

In my opinion, this was all forced too fast. The looming fines had the Big Three, with their backs against the wall, releasing products not fully developed and tested. Much of the car buying public are brand loyal, and wont venture out of their comfort zone.

Tesla and Rivian make great products for the most part, but they are mostly priced in the luxury range. Also, those who don’t own their residence are dependent on the retail charging infrastructure, which in the vast majority of the US, is nearly non existent and/or of dubious reliability.

 

[Zandcwhite]

CA will try to keep paying, and maybe a few other states.

In my opinion, this was all forced too fast. The looming fines had the Big Three, with their backs against the wall, releasing products not fully developed and tested. Much of the car buying public are brand loyal, and wont venture out of their comfort zone.

Tesla and Rivian make great products for the most part, but they are mostly priced in the luxury range. Also, those who don’t own their residence are dependent on the retail charging infrastructure, which in the vast majority of the US, is nearly non existent and/or of dubious reliability.

Why would you have to own your home to charge there? Most renters pay their own electric bills, they could still charge at home. Approximately 1/3 of Americans live in high density housing. But the vast majority of those are in major cities where public charging is readily available. If you live in a rural apartment building, I'm guessing you're not buying any brand new vehicles any time soon? The Kia ev6 seems pretty good, and smokes a Ferrari v12 in a drag race...for $50k. I know people still think that's luxury pricing, but that's literally the average new car price now. There are cheaper options for Volkswagen and Nissan. And if anyone actual read the article they canceled production of 2025s and plan to release updated specs for the 2026 model line. The idea that EVs are going away is nonsense. Stellantis was late to deliver the 2025s being well into the calendar year not your typical September model year. It's a cluster like the Bronco rollout and this pause is only about a month from where they would typically start taking 2026 orders. It's not going away.

 

[BXFXJeep]

Why would you have to own your home to charge there? Most renters pay their own electric bills, they could still charge at home. Approximately 1/3 of Americans live in high density housing. But the vast majority of those are in major cities where public charging is readily available. If you live in a rural apartment building, I'm guessing you're not buying any brand new vehicles any time soon? The Kia ev6 seems pretty good, and smokes a Ferrari v12 in a drag race...for $50k. I know people still think that's luxury pricing, but that's literally the average new car price now. There are cheaper options for Volkswagen and Nissan. And if anyone actual read the article they canceled production of 2025s and plan to release updated specs for the 2026 model line. The idea that EVs are going away is nonsense.

For people living in high density even in major cities, charging can be non existent and a nuisance, and a complete shit show come winter.

Retail charging is also very expensive, while being inconvenient for daily commuting, imagine hunting for charging, then have to hunt for parking, that's a full time job, factor in kids, and other activities.

Personally I would not advise any daily commuter to depend on public chargers.

 

[Zandcwhite]

For people living in high density even in major cities, charging can be non existent and a nuisance, and a complete shit show come winter.

Retail charging is also very expensive, while being inconvenient for daily commuting, imagine hunting for charging, then have to hunt for parking, that's a full time job, factor in kids, and other activities.

Personally I would not advise any daily commuter to depend on public chargers.

I'd say it's very dependent on your specific city and even the area of the city you live in. Obviously if you live in a condo or apartment charging is something you'd have to look in to before deciding to go EV. I just finished running 3 projects installing DC fast chargers. All 3 sites offer 18-20 chargers. In the 6 months they've been open I've never seen more than 6 vehicles charging at any one time. It will be years before anyone in any of those 3 areas will be waiting for a charger. And being in CA they are still cheaper than gas. We roadtrip to Arizona at least a half dozen times a year. No less than 6 tesla supercharger locations along the 600 mile route at all the major truck stop type exits. At least a dozen chargers at each one and never more than 4-5 vehicles charging. In the blue states they are everywhere. In the red states, cost off fuel and cost of living is so low why would you be living in an apartment and driving a >$50k vehicle? Personally I wouldn't be considering an EV if I lived in an apartment, but I wasn't considering buying a brand new vehicle back in those days either.

 

[The Last Cowboy]

Why would you have to own your home to charge there? Most renters pay their own electric bills, they could still charge at home. Approximately 1/3 of Americans live in high density housing. But the vast majority of those are in major cities where public charging is readily available. If you live in a rural apartment building, I'm guessing you're not buying any brand new vehicles any time soon? The Kia ev6 seems pretty good, and smokes a Ferrari v12 in a drag race...for $50k. I know people still think that's luxury pricing, but that's literally the average new car price now. There are cheaper options for Volkswagen and Nissan. And if anyone actual read the article they canceled production of 2025s and plan to release updated specs for the 2026 model line. The idea that EVs are going away is nonsense. Stellantis was late to deliver the 2025s being well into the calendar year not your typical September model year. It's a cluster like the Bronco rollout and this pause is only about a month from where they would typically start taking 2026 orders. It's not going away.

Most apartments wont allow chargers installs, or even extension cords ran out to the car. Most rental house leases wont allow the renters to do any electrical work at all, i.e. installing a charger, and 110 extension cords aren't close to ideal. In my area, San Antonio, charging stations can be crowded, especially Tesla chargers, unless you go late at night. And who wants to sit in their car for an hour just to get fueled up.

I agree, EVs aren't going away. But they aren't going to replace conventional vehicles anytime soon either. Both have their place. To argue that every thing must be completely ICE or completely EV is foolishness.

 

[The Last Cowboy]

I'd say it's very dependent on your specific city and even the area of the city you live in. Obviously if you live in a condo or apartment charging is something you'd have to look in to before deciding to go EV. I just finished running 3 projects installing DC fast chargers. All 3 sites offer 18-20 chargers. In the 6 months they've been open I've never seen more than 6 vehicles charging at any one time. It will be years before anyone in any of those 3 areas will be waiting for a charger. And being in CA they are still cheaper than gas. We roadtrip to Arizona at least a half dozen times a year. No less than 6 tesla supercharger locations along the 600 mile route at all the major truck stop type exits. At least a dozen chargers at each one and never more than 4-5 vehicles charging. In the blue states they are everywhere. In the red states, cost off fuel and cost of living is so low why would you be living in an apartment and driving a >$50k vehicle? Personally I wouldn't be considering an EV if I lived in an apartment, but I wasn't considering buying a brand new vehicle back in those days either.

Different cultures in different areas. Apartment dwellers here will drive Mercedes, Raptors, Rubicons, F'n Super Duty diesels. It's crazy.

 

[Zandcwhite]

Most apartments wont allow chargers installs, or even extension cords ran out to the car. Most rental house leases wont allow the renters to do any electrical work at all, i.e. installing a charger, and 110 extension cords aren't close to ideal. In my area, San Antonio, charging stations can be crowded, especially Tesla chargers, unless you go late at night. And who wants to sit in their car for an hour just to get fueled up.

I agree, EVs aren't going away. But they aren't going to replace conventional vehicles anytime soon either. Both have their place. To argue that every thing must be completely ICE or completely EV is foolishness.

Most homes built in the last 40 years have the washer and dryer in the garage. A simple y adapter and you've got a 230v 30A plug for charging. You could tell your landlord or not but I'd hardly call that "doing electrical work". As the homeowner if my renters asked if they could have a licensed electrician install their EV charger, why would I say no? That's a free and increasingly popular upgrade to my property that they are paying for. That's a win win for me. I'd probably even offer to pay for the charger if they pay for the install as now it's mine and I insured it will stay even if they move out. I don't think anyone thinks ICE is just going to vaporize in a few years. But when the most populous started states are holding to ICE vehicle sales bans just a decade from now the market for ICE will be cut by more than half regardless of who the president is. Sure it would be good business to keep selling them in the other states as they are already set up for production, but how much R&D do you think anyone is putting into ICE models at that point?

 

[Zandcwhite]

Different cultures in different areas. Apartment dwellers here will drive Mercedes, Raptors, Rubicons, F'n Super Duty diesels. It's crazy.

We have plenty of those out here too, doesn't make it any less dumb. Drop $100k on a truck in an area you can still buy a decent house in the low $200ks... and live in an apartment. Id rather live in a rooftop tent on my Jeep parked on dirt that I own than live in an apartment.

 

[Pape]

The vast majority of the anti-EV crowd has 0 experience with one and know very little about them. Of the little they do know most of it is wrong. Like the repair concerns? Aside from the powertrain is just like any other vehicle. If you're local mechanic can change tie rods or ball joint on a Ford he can do the same on a tesla. The powertrain of a true BEV is so simple it shouldn't need repaired and like a cordless drill it's batteries and an electric motor. Problems with those you obviously go to the dealer. Look at how Jeep handled the crap locker sensors. God only knows how many thousands of axle assemblies they changed under warranty before they finally made the sensor available. Brake pads last for ever because most of the braking is done by the electric motor. There are no oil changes. No transmissions. And then there's the performance. Show me an ICE vehicle that runs a 9s 1/4 mile? Far from stock and likely not street drivable. And yet anyone can buy a model s plaid and beat most people at the track let alone everyone light to light if they feel like it. On street tires no less. And then if you don't feel like enjoying the ridiculous performance you can kick back and let the thing drive for you. Less maintenance, much more simple, ridiculous torque at any rpm, and you can fuel up at home... while you sleep. There are a few niche uses where battery range, charge time, etc aren't there yet but for the vast majority a BEV works and likely better than ICE. They definitely aren't going anywhere. As more people actually experience them they will continue to grow. As they continue to grow they will get better, as that's what completion forces. The anti-EV crowd sounds like the carburetor fans when I was a kid. "I'm not going to know how to work on it" "how am I going to time it" "you mean my car won't run without a computer"? Where are those guys now? People don't like change. People are closed minded. And yet progress still happens and the better product wins.

No need to have experience to know when it does not fit.
As @BXFXJeep stated, the EV market is mostly artificially maintained and would not survive without the financial backing of the government.

 

[The Last Cowboy]

Most homes built in the last 40 years have the washer and dryer in the garage. A simple y adapter and you've got a 230v 30A plug for charging. You could tell your landlord or not but I'd hardly call that "doing electrical work". As the homeowner if my renters asked if they could have a licensed electrician install their EV charger, why would I say no? That's a free and increasingly popular upgrade to my property that they are paying for. That's a win win for me. I'd probably even offer to pay for the charger if they pay for the install as now it's mine and I insured it will stay even if they move out. I don't think anyone thinks ICE is just going to vaporize in a few years. But when the most populous started states are holding to ICE vehicle sales bans just a decade from now the market for ICE will be cut by more than half regardless of who the president is. Sure it would be good business to keep selling them in the other states as they are already set up for production, but how much R&D do you think anyone is putting into ICE models at that point?

Must be a regional thing. Most houses here built in the last 40 years have the laundry room inside. Washers/dryers in the garage is what you see in older houses, early 80s down.

 

[Zandcwhite]

No need to have experience to know when it does not fit.
As @BXFXJeep stated, the EV market is mostly artificially maintained and would not survive without the financial backing of the government.

More than half of the top EV sales models are above the $55k limit or $80k limit for trucks, suvs, and vans. They are not and we're not ever propped up by the government. They are just good vehicles and in many ways better than their competitors regardless of powertrain. No personal experience in the f150 lighting or Silverado EV but the specs are impressive. The lucid air is nicer inside than any Mercedes, BMW, or Lexus I've ever been in and it's a blast to drive. And they all start above that $55k cut off...I wonder why they sell?

Must be a regional thing. Most houses here built in the last 40 years have the laundry room inside. Washers/dryers in the garage is what you see in older houses, early 80s down.

Even then odds are either the main panel is on the garage and/or there's a sub panel in the garage. It's not hard to get a 230v circuit.

 

[The Last Cowboy]

More than half of the top EV sales models are above the $55k limit or $80k limit for trucks, suvs, and vans. They are not and we're not ever propped up by the government. They are just good vehicles and in many ways better than their competitors regardless of powertrain. No personal experience in the f150 lighting or Silverado EV but the specs are impressive. The lucid air is nicer inside than any Mercedes, BMW, or Lexus I've ever been in and it's a blast to drive. And they all start above that $55k cut off...I wonder why they sell?
Even then odds are either the main panel is on the garage and/or there's a sub panel in the garage. It's not hard to get a 230v circuit.

Not if you own it. Would an EV charger make a house more appealing to rent, hell yeah. If I owned rental property I’d install them to get more appeal. But here, especially with insurance concerns, no way would I allow a renter to do any electrical work. Nor would I as a renter do any.

But then again, the only times I’ve rented was in the military, or between home ownership. I know many who’ve rented for years and have no interest in ownership. That’s an entirely different discussion.

I think part of the issue with these discussions is that those in a part of the country that have done more infrastructure work to support easy EV use may not understand that things are very different outside of major metro areas, or inland from the coasts. Ft Worth or Sioux Falls isn’t going to have the same charging infrastructure as Sacramento or Miami.

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