Trade Values Crashing?

[RAMSTEEL]

we are in a recession…it’s just not been acknowledged yet…or understood yet

there are enough people who have stable incomes and stable situations that they are going about their business…but I think over the next few months we are going to see the wheels fall off the wagon…so to speak

I said knee-deep in a recession. This is recession lite - not saying we're not headed to worse before it gets better but we will recover in the coming years.

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[Stetson]

I said knee-deep in a recession. This is recession lite - not saying we're not headed to worse before it gets better but we will recover in the coming years.

it’s all perspective…I hear you that it will get worse and then eventually better and good times will be back.

i just think it is worse now…or as you say knee-deep…we just don’t realize it. I actually would suggest it is about ‘hip - deep’ right now…

the next few months may be interesting …

 

[m3reno]

Where did you get that nice offer at?

Through Vroom, Carvana was always a lower offer. But that was about 2-3 weeks ago. My 2018 Wrangler I sold it for 32,500 with 50,000 miles last October, I paid 36,000. So I drove it for 3 years and 50K miles at a cost of roughly 2,000 a year, have to include state sales tax unless your trading it in. Then ordered my 22 Altitude listed at 47,000 for 41,500 fully loaded except for the safety package.

 

[No IFS]

In the not too distant future nobody is going to want a Hybrid. Half gas half electric. Once fully electric takes over. They’ll be the pro gas crowd and the pro electric crowd. The hybrid will be the worst of both. Like a dual sport motorcycle sucks off-road and on the street but technically does both. or any other thing that tries to do two completely different things OK it does nothing great. Nobody’s gonna want all the disadvantages of gas and all the disadvantages of electric rolled into one. The current crop of hybrids are just transition vehicles to help get us there. And nobody’s gonna want those in the future.

 

[roaniecowpony]

Skyrocketing interest rates are at play there. We have been trying to buy a new house for over a year. What we were pre-qualified for was nothing we wanted. Now the ones we like are within our price but not our comfortable mortgage payment range. Just can't win.

The interest rate hikes by the Fed Res Bank are to blame. But they're doing what is intended. I hope this all settles down quickly. But if history is any indicator, it will take more than a few years.

 

[roaniecowpony]

In the not too distant future nobody is going to want a Hybrid. Half gas half electric. Once fully electric takes over. They’ll be the pro gas crowd and the pro electric crowd. The hybrid will be the worst of both. Like a dual sport motorcycle sucks off-road and on the street but technically does both. or any other thing that tries to do two completely different things OK it does nothing great. Nobody’s gonna want all the disadvantages of gas and all the disadvantages of electric rolled into one. The current crop of hybrids are just transition vehicles to help get us there. And nobody’s gonna want those in the future.

My take is that the plug-in electric is an interim step to something like a hydrogen fuel cell or similar. But, everything is a interim step anyway.

 

[JSTORY77]

I took my 2018 BMW M3 to Carmax when my 392 arrived a couple of weeks ago. They straight up told me that the market is changing and that as a company they are trying to lower their average cost of their inventory. Kelley Blue Book Instant Cash Offer was $2000 higher than them, Vroom was $2500 more, and Carvana was actually $4000 less. As new car inventory improves, used car values will continue to decline.

 

[jellis4148]

4XE Wranglers drop them most. The people that typically buy them want the tax credit, and you can't get that on a used one.

 

[2manyhobbies]

I just checked my 4XE again at Carvana. They are now offering $44k. They bought it on 9/1 for $53k. Now, I was working off of a quote from July (quote was technically good for a month, and they let you reschedule twice - I was pushing it out to see if it would go up). Glad I got rid of it when I did!!!

 

[Xspurt]

Through Vroom, Carvana was always a lower offer.

I've heard people all over saying this but for me it was the polar opposite. I've sold 2 vehicles to Carvana over the last few years and got way more than I should have. I nearly sold a 3rd to them last year. They were THOUSANDS over Vroom or Carmax, in once case $5000. Carvana actually lost money on the first one I sold them (a 2015 Mustang) but somehow made money on the second (2011 Kia Optima). Mine were all very low miles though so maybe that's the key.

 

[The Last Cowboy]

There is a similar thread on the boat site I'm on. This is not just a Wrangler thing. It is economy wide right now, and just beginning. It's all cyclical, and we are in for a downturn right now. No way around it.

Some things, like boats, RVs, cars, ATV etc are still priced over MSRP, as they were bought high. Many used vehicles are still priced high, because they paid too much. But the general trend is now downward.

Consider this. 1.5% vs 7% in interest amounts to about a 20% price increase if you are financing. How many are willing pay MSRP, much less over MSRP when the interest rate is that high. By the new year, many will be paying 8-10% on a car loan. The Fed stated that there will likely be two more .75% rate increases before the end of the calendar year, and likely another .75% after the new year. So 2.25% more than right now within 3 months. And that's without even taking election results into account.

This has nothing to do with transitioning from gas to electric, which will never fully happen in the foreseeable future. This is simply dollars and cents. It's happening in all sectors of the economy. I hope you like the Jeep you have, because the next one will cost you a lot more if you lease or finance. Cash will be a different story.

 

[stojanowski]

Why are you trading a 2022?

I ordered a F250 back in March and scheduled for production in October probably won't make it to the dealer until December or January.

Life changed no more Tricare and don't need a super duty... Way more vehicle than I need. Was thinking of getting it and trading it in to make some monies but looks like that boat has sailed

 

[No IFS]

The gas crisis of the 70’s gave us converted diesels in cars-light trucks that were not ready for prime time. You paid an extra $500 upfront for the motor and then they deducted extra $1500 on trade-in. I expect hybrids including the 4Xe will be the same way.

 

[zrickety]

Housing market is going through the same thing. No more bidding wars and at least 10% less than last spring.

There is a guy on Twitter, Wall Street Silver, he posts a lot of graphs and data that basically supports what you're saying. 10% less is an understatement, housing is headed into a depression with the economy.
On the flip side, my 09 GTI is worth $8-9k, about double from a few years ago.

 

[aldo98229]

Vroom's offer for my low-miles 2018 Sahara peaked exactly a year ago at $47,000. Their more recent offers have been around $35,000.

That's still not bad considering I paid $38,000 for it new three years ago --MSRP was $50,000.

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