Trade in Values tanking

[Steph1]

Cars aren't horses, and oil is far more profitable than electricity ever will be. Besides, oil companies don't control oil prices, the energy market does. Since production will wind down FOLLOWING the winding down of demand, prices will actually drop. That will lead the government(s) to start raising gas taxes to buoy the price of oil so it doesn't make EVs uncompetitive.

The biggest factor by far though will be the scarcity of ICE vehicles. As we all know, scarcity does not result in LOWER prices.

Also remember that what we're talking about here is AT LEAST 15 years off. Yes I know that politicians and other rich people are telling you that we are going to be "all-EV" by 2035 but that's not physically possible. You and I will not see the day where they make a Netflix show about the last gas station in the country. That's not even likely to happen this CENTURY. That's something our kids might see in their very late years.

I sure pray to God that your vision of the futur is the right one. Time will tell I guess.

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[Bmeister]

...Yes I know that politicians and other rich people are telling you that we are going to be "all-EV" by 2035 but that's not physically possible...

Truth. They haven't done the math. Politicians and eco-zealots are really bad at math. The math shows you are 100% dead nuts on target unless there's some miraculous technological leap for energy generation/storage on a scaled-up equivalent to Moore's Law...like...next week. It's just not going to happen by 2035 or even 2050 no matter how many tantrums Greta "I want it now!" Thunberg has.

 

[6.2Blazer]

I suspect what happened to the auto industry and dealerships recently is similar to what is going on in several other industries, such as anything to do with the housing or home improvement market. Covid caused a large increase in demand for the product. People were getting free money, had time off from their jobs and getting bored and started buying stuff which included new vehicles. However with the supply chain issues there wasn't nearly as many new vehicles available on the lot and dealerships couldn't keep up with the demand. They ordered a ton of vehicles knowing they would be waiting months to get them in. Then demand for new vehicles started slowing down for various reasons and the supply chain issues started easing up. However these new vehicles were already ordered by the dealers and started showing up much sooner than expected, which all leads to dealerships getting flooded with new cars. The local Jeep dealership is a perfect example. A year ago I talked to a salesperson about Wrangler Unlimiteds and they had none available on the lot, and he stated that when they got a few in each week they were sold by the weekend. Today they literally have 58 new Wrangler Unlimiteds on their webpage......yes, they went from 0 to 58 of these on the lot in a few months. A couple weeks ago they listed 40 some on the lot. Just because I was skeptical and I pulled into their lot last weekend and drove around. Didn't actually count them but there were rows and rows of new Wranglers sitting on the lot.
And the last thing everyone of those is listed as having at least a $3k-$4k discount below sticker price, which is something I haven't seen for awhile.

 

[Whaler27]

<<snip>> Month over month inventory is up 25% in January and that number will only grow for February and March. A glut is coming, and with that so are discounts.

Yup. It's as inevitable as death and taxes.

We'll see the same trends in the RV and boat markets, which have been similarly insane. For the last forty years RVs and boats have been crazy-fast-depreciating assets, as in closer to 35% of lost value in the first year, with another 10%-ish of remaining value lost every year after that.

We sold our 2019 diesel motorhome last summer, because similar three and four year old units were being advertised for $70,000 to $100,000 more than we paid for ours new. We sold our 16 year old boat too -- for more than it cost new in 2005. I'm old, and I have never seen anything like this kind of strange... and I feel terrible for the folks who bought used stuff over the last few years, as the value of their purchases will be hit especially hard.

 

[Spartan99]

There are some fascinating documentaries on YouTube about what happened to Saturn. If I recall, they were fantastic cars at first. Then GM started to rebadge their clunkers as Saturns, and it went downhill from there. But the real Saturns, not the rebranded GM garbage, were fantastic. When Saturn launched, I knew quite a few people who had them and they were reliable and fun to drive. My parents had one it was great.

 

[JSFoster75]

Yup. It's as inevitable as death and taxes.

We'll see the same trends in the RV and boat markets, which have been similarly insane. For the last forty years RVs and boats have been crazy-fast-depreciating assets, as in closer to 35% of lost value in the first year, with another 10%-ish of remaining value lost every year after that.

We sold our 2019 diesel motorhome last summer, because similar three and four year old units were being advertised for $70,000 to $100,000 more than we paid for ours new. We sold our 16 year old boat too -- for more than it cost new in 2005. I'm old, and I have never seen anything like this kind of strange... and I feel terrible for the folks who bought used stuff over the last few years, as the value of their purchases will be hit especially hard.

You feel terrible about people overpaying in the same post as you saying you sold old stuff for more than you paid new... Sorry, I couldn't resist pointing that out.

 

[carmigo]

Due to just needing a larger vehicle, I've been researching replacements for my 22 Wranger Rubicon XR. Stickered for 62k and I bought it for 58k last year.

I was offered 46k for trade from the same dealership I purchased from. That's painful depreciation for 7 month old vehicle.

The days of high used car values seem to definitely be over.

The days of high used car values are sadly in the past, but you can still get a decent price. We actually help folks sell their car and get you offers from multiple dealerships, so if you haven't sold that jeep yet, consider checking out our site!

 

[Heimkehr]

Every owner thinks their asset is special and becomes frustrated when introduced to reality.

<<headphones on>>

 

[Whaler27]

You feel terrible about people overpaying in the same post as you saying you sold old stuff for more than you paid new... Sorry, I couldn't resist pointing that out.

You're right!

We're all playing in the same economic sandbox, and we all assess probabilities and risks differently. That's obvious from the predecessor discussions on this topic: Some folks are probably still planning to keep ordering and trading on a short cycle, because they expect all vehicle markets to continue climbing due to inflation.

I don't want to see anybody get economically spanked, so I feel bad for those who do, but assuming this is a zero-sum game, my primary concern is minimizing my own spankings. I've earned a few doozies over the years.... I'm too old to recover from another attack of stupid, so I'm much more financially conservative/cowardly these days.

 

[Pinky Tuscadero]

Sounds like many want to buy a brand new car - drive it for a couple years - and then sell it for more than they paid for it to the guy they bought it from - hmmmmm ?
Now they seem very upset that this doesn't happen as a normal occurrence but as a very rare thing that happened a little but was exaggerated a lot
If they think its so valuable - why don't they just keep it themselves ?

 

[Ratbert]

Truth. They haven't done the math. Politicians and eco-zealots are really bad at math. The math shows you are 100% dead nuts on target unless there's some miraculous technological leap for energy generation/storage on a scaled-up equivalent to Moore's Law...like...next week. It's just not going to happen by 2035 or even 2050 no matter how many tantrums Greta "I want it now!" Thunberg has.

Probably not by 2050, but the recent advancements in fusion are incredibly promising.

 

[AFD]

Probably not by 2050, but the recent advancements in fusion are incredibly promising.

Meh. Modern EVs are still using ancient battery tech that's been around for over 30 years. Heck, it's been 60 years and we still don't have flying cars like The Jetsons promised us

 

[Deleted member 59498]

Meh. Modern EVs are still using ancient battery tech that's been around for over 30 years. Heck, it's been 60 years and we still don't have flying cars like The Jetsons promised us

Yeah I thought we were all supposed to live on golf courses and fly to the office in our cars! Disappointed!

 

[Eddiechi]

Truth. They haven't done the math. Politicians and eco-zealots are really bad at math. The math shows you are 100% dead nuts on target unless there's some miraculous technological leap for energy generation/storage on a scaled-up equivalent to Moore's Law...like...next week. It's just not going to happen by 2035 or even 2050 no matter how many tantrums Greta "I want it now!" Thunberg has.

Can only chuckle when I hear politicians claiming they will ban all ICE by 2035 in various major cities.... doesn't matter if they claim it by 2045 or 2055 the technology isn't here yet for that kind of transformation and more importantly the infrastructure will take decades to build to be in a sufficient place to make realistic claims. Especially in large metro areas and dense congested cities, transformation of infrastructure might move faster in isolated areas of the Country but for example here in Chicago where neighborhoods are very dense and street parking is always jam packed even in residential areas.

In my area, the block I live on is a mixture of single family homes and 3 flat condos where I bet 75% of the people that live on my block are renters and park their vehicles bumper to bumper on the street... I'd say only about 25% of renters have garage access in my area. Parking is so dense that after 5pm will watch cars circle my block 5-10 times waiting for a parking spot to become available and when that doesn't happen people are parking 2, 3 or 4 blocks away from their front door....... it's like this throughout most of the city, theres probably 40-50 cars parked bumper to bumper on my block right now - none of these people can buy an EV because they have no way to charge once they get home, unless they figure a way to run an extension cord out the front door and maybe a block down to their car and while most of the city is on 120v it's fruitless. Don't even have to mention the effects that adverse weather has or snow storms hit and everyone is claiming "dibs" throughout the city. It's like this throughout the city and garage access is limited until you get farther out to the suburbs. The current batteries and technology is not advanced enough yet to remedy these scenerios in densely populated areas throughout the country.

We might see certain pockets of country leading the charge in transforming infrastructure to EV by 2035 but it will be decades upon decades before the technology is ready and affordable to be used mainstream universally.

 

[40Caliber]

So should I wait? I'm in the market for a used 2021.

There are some youtube guys (search YAA). the dad is an ex car salesman, the son looks and posts the weekly statistics on car prices. they have been pretty accurate on calling this correction all the way through.

the last video I watched, they believed prices would continue down into the summer.
it depends on when you need the jeep and how long you are willing to wait.

I'll be 60 this august. Time is worth something. I bought my wife a jeep at Gupton in October and was pretty sure this was gonna happen. (which is why i bought new and plan to keep a long time)

I didn't however want to wait till i was 61. At this point for me, time is more valuable than money. I got no Idea how much time i got left.

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