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Jitzy

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Jay, your write extremely well and make solid points.





Don't we need to incentivize people though to make the switch to electric, such that more production and economies of scale lower prices and up capabilities?

Governments job is not to “incentivize” people it’s to work FOR the people.
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@TEXGOAT, when you're right your right. Your claims from the last few posts that the limiting factor in all of this is battery technology only a fool could disagree with.

Currently, as you mention, batteries take too long to charge compared to other fuels--even polluting ones, don't hold as many BTU's by volume or weight, and require recharging far to frequently.

Currently, show me a battery powered plane and I'll show you something that can't achieve much lift or duration of flight, heck speed too or air to ground time.

But don't we need to be getting our feet wet in this stuff in order to create better tech that answers these limitations; witness the hybrid and now fully electric vehicle?

Once upon a time people debated the unreliable and expensive ICE engine over their reliable and dependable horses--and at the time they often made a good point. With perfection of the tech, engines did win, albeit by purely market forces alone, but it is the nature of todays tech to have really high break thru investment startup costs, and marginal returns thereafter that government needs to incentivize.
 

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Governments job is not to “incentivize” people it’s to work FOR the people.
True, as sure as we likely agree that we could add the word "benefit" to "work FOR the benefit of the people."

So I guess it boils down to what benefits the people most, which is subject to opinion.

Certainly non-absurd transportation costs are important. I'll give you that. But so too is dealing with our environmental problems, right?
 

Jitzy

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True, as sure as we likely agree that we could add the word "benefit" to "work FOR the benefit of the people."

So I guess it boils down to what benefits the people most, which is subject to opinion.

Certainly non-absurd transportation costs are important. I'll give you that. But so too is dealing with our environmental problems, right?
It’s actually to work for the will of the people not benefit. This country could decide tomorrow thru elections that we want to all want to make it mandatory that everyone must only own ICE with no emissions control cars only and that’s it or we must only own electric cars. It’s not up to anyone but the free will of the people to make that decision.
 

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Start stop technology is used by just about every car manufacturer and has proved to be a reliable system and does improve gas mileage. You dad was correct about engine wear, but I would add that it is the "cold" start that has the biggest impact. On the start stop the engine is still hot and the oil is still in the critical areas when the restart happens. Also the bearings inside the motor have been upgraded to handle one 300,000 starts and the started was designed to handle the wear and tear. For most ppl it takes time to get use to the start/stop and then its not an issue for others the press the button to disabled which have to do each time you start the engine, I believe it is automatically disabled when you are in 4wd lo etc when you are on the trail...
Except for 2019 and beyond, they took the button out for the ess function so there is no way to disable it in the cab.
 

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jeepoch

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Andy, you asked.

I claim that subsidies, no matter their intent, are always a form of thievery . It took Thomas Edison 999 failures to finally achieve a usable light bulb. Should candle prices have been incrementally increased (a wax tax) until they were prohibitively expensive even well after the bulb became commercially available? Undoubtedly the electric light bulb then had a similar price point thus promoting more electrical wiring and a permanent new revenue stream (the electric bill). Edison eventually made more on selling energy than on selling light bulbs.

Will it take just as many battery generations until we have a usable electric vehicle? Punishing the many to benefit a few (Elon Musk comes to mind), with only a hearty promise of achieving similar performance as compared to ICE capabilities.

Why is it always the government (via a lobby-heavy crony corporation) that takes very little risk (due to tax-payer provided funding), while getting wealthy in the process and producing only the most minimal of results? All the while ignoring this graft which must be overlooked because the climate is way too important and must be saved at all costs regardless.

I cynically claim subsidies produce only more bureaucracy and sweet CEO bailout packages as promised deliverables are consistently missed. Sorry but subsidized products typically generate the inconvenient truth of a money sink and nothing more.

Furthermore battery physics is not trivial. Storing enough energy within a small volume to move around a couple of thousands of kilograms of mass over a distance of 500 kilometers on a single charge is a pretty tall order.

However, we can achieve that pretty consistently with ICE vehicles. I do this in my Jeep quite regularly, every tank fill up as a matter of fact. Unfortunately we are only able to achieve about half that metric with the best and most expensive commercially available batteries today.

The market in my humble opinion is really the best way forward where people with actual skin in the game (rather than the subsidized focus of empire building and kick-backs), is where real progress will be achieved.

Unfortunately, I also realize just how much that our current political process can't directly benefit without the crony lobby and subsidy controls (i.e. carbon tax).

So do we (as a society) keep swallowing this subsidy crap? I say let the market work were innovation, not politically greased pockets should prevail. The green new deal mentality in DC unfortunately wants nothing to do with free-market principles. The overall energy industry may have already been hijacked where free-market influence has already been stifled into irrelevance.

Boy howdy, I really hope I'm wrong.

Given the choice (today), I'll continue to enjoy my 3.6L Jeep with the mandated ESS and its very small aux battery.

Jay
 

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It’s actually to work for the will of the people not benefit. This country could decide tomorrow thru elections that we want to all want to make it mandatory that everyone must only own ICE with no emissions control cars only and that’s it or we must only own electric cars. It’s not up to anyone but the free will of the people to make that decision.
That's a really good point. I kid you not. No joke. If as a democracy, for example--and I do NOT mean this tongue-in-cheek--we decide in majority that as costly as environmental problems are from combusting fossil fuels, that not doing so is worse, yes, I'm afraid you are right--you have me--you win--no joke. Strictly speaking, arguments could be made that government should be promoting policies that aid our decision, in that hypothetical, to remain under an ICE paradigm.

You get my "like" because it's an excellent point, even if it contradicts me.

But this is not only a complex issue that affects future populations and the current and future populations of other countries with different governments. The fact is that government's role is not only to do that which the majority of people want but to provide a level playing surface that balances the needs of various competing ends.

If we could vote on whether vehicles should be free I know I'd love to have my money back on what I paid for my JL. I have to think many owners would agree (the will of the people, or at least owners here.) But with laws in place that insure that such actions would constitute theft on my part, even though it's not my personal will, markets are incentivized under such laws to produce those vehicles through payments that owners like you and I make.

Another point....the principles of democracy you cite, as valid as I concur them to be (I have no basis to fight you on things I agree with you on and that you've so well stated) are based on the will of an informed populous, armed with the relevant and current information upon which to make a decision---the so called "democracy is not a spectator sport" argument.

Sadly, many people make decisions in life without such information. Frankly, it shocks me, pleasantly, that nobody yet that I've seen has come to this thread offering the greenhouse gases argument as one big overinflated hoax yet. Past threads on similar subject matter have.

Your point though is well taken.
 
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Gee-pah

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Andy, you asked.
I did: your opinions matter too Jay.

I claim that subsidies, no matter their intent, are always a form of thievery . .
I concur. Subsidies cost money to provide. That money comes from someone else who may not be in favor of the subsidy: in fact it may harm them in their personal situation. They're stolen from not once, but twice: first in taxes, second in lost of wages from the decisions that they had to pay for unwillingly.

But, as I know you must appreciate, if not agree with, the principles that claim to justify such actions are that society as a whole is benefited more by those subsidies than the few screwed over by them. Perhaps its situations like these the give rise to adages like "Democracy (at least the "democracy" we currently practice) is the worst form of government....except for all the others."

It took Thomas Edison 999 failures to finally achieve a usable light bulb. Should candle prices have been incrementally increased (a wax tax) until they were prohibitively expensive even well after the bulb became commercially available?
Fair point--to let markets freely determine the direction of commerce. It is usually what is best.

But to make this analogy closer to what's faced today, let's assume that the candles cause more harm to the environment than Edison's bulb. Let's also assume that the purchasers of candles are not paying their true and fair price (as is the case with fossil fuels,) which would have to include the cost of fixing the damage to the environment they cause in this hypothetical.

Then add to that the reality that technology today is orders of magnitude more complex and expensive to first produce than the light bulb, where additionally, mass production will lower the cost of today's tech with orders of magnitude greater economies of scale than that of the light bulb, adjusting for inflation.

Undoubtedly the electric light bulb then had a similar price point thus promoting more electrical wiring and a permanent new revenue stream (the electric bill). Edison eventually made more on selling energy than on selling light bulbs.

Will it take just as many battery generations until we have a usable electric vehicle? Punishing the many to benefit a few (Elon Musk comes to mind), with only a hearty promise of achieving similar performance as compared to ICE capabilities.
I wonder, with what I hope is shared humor Jay if, just like Edison's revenue came from selling electric, rather than light bulbs, if Musk's will ultimately come not from selling vehicles, but tax credits

Musk has been an unfair profit maker in an imperfect system (then, what's perfect?) of subsidies, often at the expense of stranded owners of some of his vehicles. You're right. But the pure free market economics you cite would find people not buying his vehicles, especially as hybrid and pure electric competing ones are introduced, with 10 more a year away.

Why is it always the government (via a lobby-heavy crony corporation) that takes very little risk (due to tax-payer provided funding), while getting wealthy in the process and producing only the most minimal of results.
Well, the theory there, that you must already know, and we both would roll our eyes at is that these mega companies are typically publicly owned where it is the stakeholders profit. One major fly in this ointment is ridiculous executive compensation that chews away at stock holder return. It's also true that these enormously expensive undertakings simply can't be tackled by small groups.

? All the while ignoring this graft which must be overlooked because the climate is way too important and must be saved at all costs regardless.
It is hard to monetize the costs of climate change. Just how much damage, how fast, and its effects....some say it will wipe out our race.

Maybe the solution if for you and I to develop a different kind of tech Jay, not in batteries, but that neutralizes CO2 and turns it into...fossil fuel.:) May ICE engines reign! ;)

I cynically claim subsidies produce only more bureaucracy and sweet CEO bailout packages as promised deliverables are consistently missed. Sorry but subsidized products typically generate the inconvenient truth of a money sink and nothing more.
What you describe certainly happens. Dissenters might point to the classic example of the tech made available to the masses that came out of government programs like NASA.

Furthermore battery physics is not trivial. Storing enough energy within a small volume to move around a couple of thousands of kilograms of mass over a distance of 500 kilometers on a single charge is a pretty tall order.
It absolutely is sir; it's our biggest wall to climb...no argument. To make batteries hold, on a volume and weight basis, as many BTU's as fossil fuels, recharge as quickly (and as easily available) as a fill of the gas pump, and last on a charge as long, are huge hurdles.

But some may argue that it's all the more reason we need to incentivize (subsidies) the mega quasi government companies we both are suspect of to work on it.

However, we can achieve that pretty consistently with ICE vehicles. I do this in my Jeep quite regularly, every tank fill up as a matter of fact. Unfortunately we are only able to achieve about half that metric with the best and most expensive commercially available batteries today.
No doubt. What's also true is that you and I are not paying for the true cost of that gasoline. If we could factor in the environmental harm it's likely causing, it might be (guessing) $72/gallon.

The market in my humble opinion is really the best way forward where people with actual skin in the game (rather than the subsidized focus of empire building and kick-backs), is where real progress will be achieved.
It usually is, but there are exceptions. Take utilities and the high cost of entry from building a grid. There, a private company, regulated by government, is the lessor of all evils. Battery tech may be similar in the insane up front costs.

Another thing. You, me, everyone..we're greedy. "Screw the next generation, I'll be dead by then. Give me my cheap ICE vehicle."

Often greed (for $) produces the best products and the cheapest cost. Run amok, that greed can also destroy us.

Unfortunately, I also realize just how much that our current political process can't directly benefit without the crony lobby and subsidy controls (i.e. carbon tax).

So do we (as a society) keep swallowing this subsidy crap? I say let the market work were innovation, not politically greased pockets should prevail.
It sounds great. It does. But if you could produce ICE vehicles without penalty, and make good money, would you want to throw millions $ instead at trying to come up with a battery alternative, that if you're successful, might break even years from now? I wouldn't. Better, my shareholders would likely insist I don't.

The green new deal mentality in DC unfortunately wants nothing to do with free-market principles. The overall energy industry may have already been hijacked where free-market influence has already been stifled into irrelevance.

Boy howdy, I really hope I'm wrong.

Given the choice (today), I'll continue to enjoy my 3.6L Jeep with the mandated ESS and its very small aux battery.

Jay
 

jeepoch

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I did: your opinions matter too Jay.



I concur. Subsidies cost money to provide. That money comes from someone else who may not be in favor of the subsidy: in fact it may harm them in their personal situation. They're stolen from not once, but twice: first in taxes, second in lost of wages from the decisions that they had to pay for unwillingly.

But, as I know you must appreciate, if not agree with, the principles that claim to justify such actions are that society as a whole is benefited more by those subsidies than the few screwed over by them. Perhaps its situations like these the give rise to adages like "Democracy (at least the "democracy" we currently practice) is the worst form of government....except for all the others."



Fair point--to let markets freely determine the direction of commerce. It is usually what is best.

But to make this analogy closer to what's faced today, let's assume that the candles cause more harm to the environment than Edison's bulb. Let's also assume that the purchasers of candles are not paying their true and fair price (as is the case with fossil fuels,) which would have to include the cost of fixing the damage to the environment they cause in this hypothetical.

Then add to that the reality that technology today is orders of magnitude more complex and expensive to first produce than the light bulb, where additionally, mass production will lower the cost of today's tech with orders of magnitude greater economies of scale than that of the light bulb, adjusting for inflation.



I wonder, with what I hope is shared humor Jay if, just like Edison's revenue came from selling electric, rather than light bulbs, if Musk's will ultimately come not from selling vehicles, but tax credits

Musk has been an unfair profit maker in an imperfect system (then, what's perfect?) of subsidies, often at the expense of stranded owners of some of his vehicles. You're right. But the pure free market economics you cite would find people not buying his vehicles, especially as hybrid and pure electric competing ones are introduced, with 10 more a year away.



Well, the theory there, that you must already know, and we both would roll our eyes at is that these mega companies are typically publicly owned where it is the stakeholders profit. One major fly in this ointment is ridiculous executive compensation that chews away at stock holder return. It's also true that these enormously expensive undertakings simply can't be tackled by small groups.



It is hard to monetize the costs of climate change. Just how much damage, how fast, and its effects....some say it will wipe out our race.

Maybe the solution if for you and I to develop a different kind of tech Jay, not in batteries, but that neutralizes CO2 and turns it into...fossil fuel.:) May ICE engines reign! ;)



What you describe certainly happens. Dissenters might point to the classic example of the tech made available to the masses that came out of government programs like NASA.



It absolutely is sir; it's our biggest wall to climb...no argument. To make batteries hold, on a volume and weight basis, as many BTU's as fossil fuels, recharge as quickly (and as easily available) as a fill of the gas pump, and last on a charge as long, are huge hurdles.

But some may argue that it's all the more reason we need to incentivize (subsidies) the mega quasi government companies we both are suspect of to work on it.



No doubt. What's also true is that you and I are not paying for the true cost of that gasoline. If we could factor in the environmental harm it's likely causing, it might be (guessing) $72/gallon.



It usually is, but there are exceptions. Take utilities and the high cost of entry from building a grid. There, a private company, regulated by government, is the lessor of all evils. Battery tech may be similar in the insane up front costs.

Another thing. You, me, everyone..we're greedy. "Screw the next generation, I'll be dead by then. Give me my cheap ICE vehicle."

Often greed (for $) produces the best products and the cheapest cost. Run amok, that greed can also destroy us.



It sounds great. It does. But if you could produce ICE vehicles without penalty, and make good money, would you want to throw millions $ instead at trying to come up with a battery alternative, that if you're successful, might break even years from now? I wouldn't. Better, my shareholders would likely insist I don't.
Andy,

Very good debate. Of course a lot of my points were (are) very 'tongue-in-cheek'. I wholeheartedly agree that there has to be a pragmatic way to solve even the very toughest, most complicated problems.

However, having a BS in Physics, I tend to question and be skeptical of almost everything. Especially climate change. Our planet is essentially doomed just based on the principle of entropy alone. It's just a matter of time. If not the climate, mankind will be threatened in some other way.

Forget man-made carbon emissions, and greenhouse effects for the moment. What about asteroid strikes, magnetic pole reversals, super-nova cosmic showers, solar storms or even super or even ordinary volcanoes or the litany of other things that cable channels are getting rich on exposing? Can we be expected to fix or prevent any flavor of any type of total apocalypse? The universe including our planet can, and will be very violent at some (any) point in time.

I certainly agree we must be as responsible as 'practical' with emphasis on the meaning of practical in every sense of it's meaning.

We can't totally destroy society (economically) either just because of the fear of future predictions. Where most of these prophecies are based upon suspicious, agenda driven, very dubious modeling. We have to take politics out of science. Most studies produced today are financed by certain interests with the sole purpose of trying to prove a certain outcome, rather than performing the research and following the data wherever it points.

Even universities and research facilities the very things invented to follow, promote and openly [freely] discuss scientific, philosophical and political thought (ignoring their very pathetic snowflake 'safe' spaces, but I digress...) are all now profit oriented where grants only continue to be rewarded after specifically favorable outcomes.

Unfortunately everything today is biased toward convincing the masses of a pre-ordained result.

I fully believe (to my very core) that global-warming ---> climate change ---> environmental catastrophe, whatever the PC crowd may eventually come to consensus upon, will never be 'settled' science. Science by its very nature is never settled. Never.

Even Einstein's postulates may someday be proven wrong (or shown to at least be universally insufficient).

I therefore conject that all of the inertia of climate hysteria is nothing more than a front to monetize the entire green industry. Just like Edison selling the idea of electric light, not necessarily to promote light itself, but to expand and foster the real (un-advertised) agenda of selling electrical power. That is entirely why the more brilliant ideas of Nikola Tesla lost favor; he couldn't as readily monetize power transmission over-the-air as Edison could over a wire. It is indeed ironic however that Tesla's genius of AC transmission line theory was eventually adopted with little to no credit awarded to him. Life is so unfair...

Regardless, it always comes down to money, plain and simple. The move from ICE to electric vehicles is using the concept of the environment like Edison had used light. It has to be shown that the environment will be killing everything if we don't all drive ourselves insane worrying about it.

Do I think ICE is harming the environment, unquestionably. Do electric vehicles harm it, absolutely yes, but to a lesser degree. How about cow farts, certainly true. Can we eliminate this damage? Only to the point we can 'practically' manage. The real difference of opinion is that the tree-hugger is willing to spend ALL of your income (and livelihood) in order to even marginally increase the odds of making the smallest of dents.

My position is to take all sides of this equation; scientifically, politically, emotionally and financially into account. We can't break-the-bank or commit suicide in that quest. I for one am a champion of saving your hard earned income, in the pursuit of a common sense and reasoned approach.

Unfortunately, too many people don't really give a damn one way or the other, the Lemmings, or low information voters. That's why this continuous, no holes barred environmental sales pitch is being made. The green energy revenue stream is the clear overall objective. With everything, (including the environment) being nothing more than the means towards that end.

Jay
 

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Except for 2019 and beyond, they took the button out for the ess function so there is no way to disable it in the cab.
Not true. My 2019 has the ESS disable, not that I use it.
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