General thoughts on ICE depreciation?

[The Last Cowboy]

I have nothing against EVs. But I do have a problems with carbon credits, tax subsidies and mandates. Take those away and see if the EVs can compete. I believe that many legacy manufacturers are getting into the game to keep from having to buy carbon credits from other so called "green" companies.

There will always be a demand for gas engine vehicles in the "fly over" country and in the non coastal west. Range and charging are issues that have yet to be overcome. The promised battery revolution has yet to happen. With current and foreseeable tech, aging batteries will reduce range and replacing them will be a financial burden most can't live with. EVs for now, look to be more compatible with urban areas, or tightly spaced towns like much of the east coast has.

Gas engines will still be needed in the future. The way things look now, the current aggressive mandates will need to be adjusted or eliminated. Companies like Porsche, Mercedes and Toyota have already stated that they will continue to develop and produce gas and offer gas engines.

Also, consider that for now EVs are a market for home owners or business owners. The ability to have a charger installed depends on having a place to install one and the means to be charged for the kilowatt hours used. Apartment dwellers and those who rent houses will likely not have access to a charger as often as needed. And those 6 chargers at the mall will get packed pretty quick, with cars waiting.

Gas and diesel powered personal conveyances will be with us for quite some time. To ban registrations on them, at say 2035, would be foolish. It would take nearly new vehicles off the road and would leave the vast majority of the poor with no transportation at all. And let's say that they limited it to a certain GVWR, say 7000 lbs or so. Can you imagine the numbers large of trucks and SUVs that would sell?

Then there will be a problem of what to do with all of the gasoline and oil that will be stockpiling. Refining oil will not stop. Modern society relies on the spectrum of chemicals produced form crude oil. Plastics, synthetic, yes even "vegan leather" all come from crude oil. As a part of the refining process gasoline and diesel are produced. This can not be changed. Crude yields a spectrum, not just one thing. If you want plastics, synthetic rubber, tires, polyester, etc. gas and diesel are part of the mix. If we are truly concerned about the environment, we wouldn't just ship those fuels to overseas countries to just burn inefficiently would we? That's exactly what would happen. We have high emissions standards in the US and other developed countries do as well. Not so much in those countries that are defined by the UN as "developing". They have lowered standards and will continue to burn hydrocarbon fuels with little or no emissions standards or enforcement well into the future. In the end, the total global atmospheric environment suffers greater than it does now, and I haven't even touched on how to produce all of this new electricity demand.

Level the playing field, get meddling politicians out of the free market and let's see what happens. The best product will then prevail.

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[Heimkehr]

As many of you, I've followed closely the events of 3 Mile Island, Chernobyl, and Fukushima. Frankly, I don't see any support for building nuc generating plants. I can't even recall any politicians even mentioning the thought since Fukushima. For good reason too.

The cost of nuc power has continued to rise, while solar and wind generation has dropped dramatically to about 1/3 or 1/4 the cost of nuc power. These "renewables" are also quicker to get online by years. I used to be a nuc power advocate, but times have changed.

Nuclear power has parallels with air travel. Both have proven to be remarkably safe and efficient, but a single mistake can cause disproportionate harm. While history compels us to pay attention to the latter, policy makers mustn't allow themselves to be blinded by it.

The problem with so-called renewables is that winds die and the sun sets. Both require significant use of land, and are always at the mercy of changing seasonal conditions. Their long-term efficiencies are capped before the first shovel of dirt is moved.

I remain an advocate for nuclear power. It's place at the table shouldn't be disregarded, nor is it mutually exclusive with other methods of power generation. This is doubly true when attempting to reconcile lawmaker's pipe dreams of electric vehicle implementation with the very real limitations of our aging (and functionally insufficient for purpose) national electric infrastructure.

 

[roaniecowpony]

Where we are going: The 2 door Magneto electric concept Jeep is impressive. Appears one of this Jeep’s goals is to demonstrate it can work with a manual (and a 2 door), which would be great for some enthusiasts. For me, I would buy a dummied down version possibly, depending on features (compromise on power, tires, lift, axles). Too bad it must be 12 inches longer and I hope Jeep can design the drivetrain to accommodate a shorter wheelbase. The 2 door Jeep already had increased in length from earlier models over the years and I for one enjoy my JLR’s maneuverability and ended up loathing my earlier 2010 Raptor making its slow u turns and maneuvering poorly over/around obstacles.. However, if something like the concept ended up being the only 2 door option, I would possibly get one, that is, of course, only if my JLR ever dies (or the ICE itself).

Jeep seems to be missing the boat on electro motive benefits. Eliminating or minimizing transmissions and gears is one of the benefits of the technology. We can recover much of that ~100hp the current JL driveline sucks out of the system.

 

[The Last Cowboy]

Charging EVs, even if they only take 20% of the market, is going to place a massive load on electric grids during what are now off peak hours. Power plants will be running at full or near full capicity for 24 hours a day under current configurations. This will reduce reliability and force rolling blackouts in order to conduct maintenance.

 

[roaniecowpony]

Nuclear power has parallels with air travel. Both have proven to be remarkably safe and efficient, but a single mistake can cause disproportionate harm. While history compels us to pay attention to the latter, policy makers mustn't allow themselves to be blinded by it.

The problem with so-called renewables is that winds die and the sun sets. Both require significant use of land, and are always at the mercy of changing seasonal conditions. Their long-term efficiencies are capped before the first shovel of dirt is moved.

I remain an advocate for nuclear power. It's place at the table shouldn't be disregarded, nor is it mutually exclusive with other methods of power generation. This is doubly true when attempting to reconcile lawmaker's pipe dreams of electric vehicle implementation with the very real limitations of our aging (and functionally insufficient for purpose) national electric infrastructure.

I agree we still need nuc. But, no politician has the stomach for campaigning for building new nuc plants. It's the old "not in my backyard" thing.

 

[Deleted member 59498]

I am no expert or anything but I don't think a gas engine will run so well on mars.

 

[johnnyj]

Thought long and hard about it - they are indeed really cool (EVs). Cant make the EV numbers pencil for me though, no matter what laws they pass. A big change we made in our household in the last 6 years was the move away from depreciation if all possible. This was a big ego check but healthy for us. If you're willing to go without some things, one really can shield themselves and their family from most things that depreciate heavily. The big change for me in the last 5 years was really consciously leaning into the notion that "affording" something doesn't just mean payments, or even being able to buy it outright, but also means the resources spent don't create a huge opportunity cost like investment for a comfortable retirement. Put in those terms...no new cars make sense unless you've already got over a million in investments or fairly liquid assets (second home, rental, etc).

The reason I bring this up is, if a person is making the calculations of whether or not an item's depreciation is "worth it" in their purchasing decisions vs an alternative item, they're getting into the financial planning/literacy stage in which - unless they're already millionaires - buying a new vehicle of substantial value makes little sense. Buying a new car, even if you are one of the 15% of buyers who pay cash, only makes sense if you have considered the depreciation and do not care because it has no discernable impact on your future. Some will say they bought their car for "smiles" and not the financial sense - which is entirely their prerogative, but we're talkin depreciation here. This is why my next Jeep is gonna be a project TJ, preferably with a blown engine so I can defer some cost.

The closest competing EV Truck to my Tacoma costs upwards of 50k. That is to say, 4x4 capable w/4lo range. My Taco is paid for, and I bought it at the bottom of it's 10 year depreciation. It is in excellent mechanical order, with a spankin new long block/clutch under the hood. Total cost into the truck as she sits is 23k. The 5 speed probably has another 150k in it before I need to slap a junkyard one in when the synchros eventually go. I *might* toss a rear locker in if I actually get into anything where it's needed in the next few years. The truck will likely last 300k more before it needs any work I can't do in my garage.

To buy an EV, even here in Washington state, I'd need to not lose any capability *and* be able to recoup the cost in savings compared to a paid off Tacoma. Not gonna happen. By the time the savings for an EV in gas, relative to the moderate increase to my electric bill for charging and the depreciation of the EV penciled out, the EV would be well over 10 years old and obsolete/needing a battery replacement. Something tells me my Taco's engine will barely be out of puberty in 12 years.

If the government wants people into EV's they're gonna have to make some serious, serious tax breaks if not direct payments to people before the numbers remotely make sense to anyone who isn't in the "buy a new car frequently" crowd - which my gut feeling is most of America.

 

[HeisenbergFX4]

I am slowly changing over but until electric can charge faster on the highway I will always have an ICE vehicle as we travel often between our home in Jupiter Florida and our home in Southern Indiana. Both our homes are full solar so love the idea of being electric.

We currently have the 4XE we just bought, a MachE which we love and a Lightning coming to replace our F150

 

[rickinAZ]

Ford thought about making one in the 50’s. Predicted 5,000 mile range. To bad they didn’t make it; it would have been the bomb??

https://www.hemmings.com/stories/article/1958-ford-nucleon

Sorry...the Edsel was a bigger priority for them. They probably should have gone with the Nucleon, but hindsight is always 20/20.

 

[gsbrockman]

We can recover much of that ~100hp the current JL driveline sucks out of the system.

Source for above statement?

 

[roaniecowpony]

Thought long and hard about it - they are indeed really cool (EVs). Cant make the EV numbers pencil for me though, no matter what laws they pass. A big change we made in our household in the last 6 years was the move away from depreciation if all possible. This was a big ego check but healthy for us. If you're willing to go without some things, one really can shield themselves and their family from most things that depreciate heavily. The big change for me in the last 5 years was really consciously leaning into the notion that "affording" something doesn't just mean payments, or even being able to buy it outright, but also means the resources spent don't create a huge opportunity cost like investment for a comfortable retirement. Put in those terms...no new cars make sense unless you've already got over a million in investments or fairly liquid assets (second home, rental, etc).

The reason I bring this up is, if a person is making the calculations of whether or not an item's depreciation is "worth it" in their purchasing decisions vs an alternative item, they're getting into the financial planning/literacy stage in which - unless they're already millionaires - buying a new vehicle of substantial value makes little sense. Buying a new car, even if you are one of the 15% of buyers who pay cash, only makes sense if you have considered the depreciation and do not care because it has no discernable impact on your future. Some will say they bought their car for "smiles" and not the financial sense - which is entirely their prerogative, but we're talkin depreciation here. This is why my next Jeep is gonna be a project TJ, preferably with a blown engine so I can defer some cost.

The closest competing EV Truck to my Tacoma costs upwards of 50k. That is to say, 4x4 capable w/4lo range. My Taco is paid for, and I bought it at the bottom of it's 10 year depreciation. It is in excellent mechanical order, with a spankin new long block/clutch under the hood. Total cost into the truck as she sits is 23k. The 5 speed probably has another 150k in it before I need to slap a junkyard one in when the synchros eventually go. I *might* toss a rear locker in if I actually get into anything where it's needed in the next few years. The truck will likely last 300k more before it needs any work I can't do in my garage.

To buy an EV, even here in Washington state, I'd need to not lose any capability *and* be able to recoup the cost in savings compared to a paid off Tacoma. Not gonna happen. By the time the savings for an EV in gas, relative to the moderate increase to my electric bill for charging and the depreciation of the EV penciled out, the EV would be well over 10 years old and obsolete/needing a battery replacement. Something tells me my Taco's engine will barely be out of puberty in 12 years.

If the government wants people into EV's they're gonna have to make some serious, serious tax breaks if not direct payments to people before the numbers remotely make sense to anyone who isn't in the "buy a new car frequently" crowd - which my gut feeling is most of America.

Everyone is in a unique economic situation and has to or wants to deal with it in their own way. Larger or smaller financial resources drive our spending behavior...or should.

Makers can only sell to people willing to buy. People that have decided not to buy aren't their market.

 

[zouch]

i don't see ICEs' depreciation changing rapidly in my lifetime, even if/as we move more to EVs.

being involved with Emergency Services i've long throught we (as a nation) need to seriously reconsider the national power distribution grid with more thought toward locally-produced power. examples of how stupid it is to rely on power from a distance were rife in Texas in recent years, and there are plenty of examples that show how fragile that whole system is.

since i'm not a fan of anything with a radioactive half life, i'm currently leaning toward on-site solar as an aid to the solution, even though admittedly, that has its own collection of challenges to overcome.
solar isn't perfect; battery materials are an issue, yes, and solar obviously isn't going to work everywhere for everyone all the time, but i think it might be a step towards a less-polluting future for those who can & will make the effort. (yes, it requires an effort, which i think is why most people won't do it without being forced to. we humans in general tend to be cheap and lazy by nature.)

i still hold out hope that Biofuels may help as a step toward a less-polluting future; Renewable Diesel and perhaps still Algae-based BioDiesel? i do not support Ethanol.


personally, i have considered buying an EV at the low end of the market for a couple of reasons:
the people that i know that have them spend almost nothing on maintenance. the cost of a battery when one finally wears out isn't that much when amortized over the life of the vehicle and balanced against the lack of maintenance costs.
secondly, i'm in the unusual position that i can charge one for free when i go to the office.

with that in mind, i'm tempted to get an EV to burn up on my 50+mile/day commute and keep my beautiful Diesel J**p in better shape and use it more exclusively for what it's for.

 

[jjvincent]

When it comes to automobiles, public choice has been absent for quite some time thanks to CAFE regulations. I know several people that are still disappointed that Ford and GM decided to stop making sedans, small sporty hatchbacks, and small pickup trucks. CAFE is the reason Jeep has introduced the Grand Cherokee L and the Grand Wagoner L recently. I wouldn't be surprised if we see a Wrangler Unlimited L in the near future.

What I see is that, GM and Ford dropped low margin vehicles and concentrated on high. The Japanese and Koreans somehow can sell those vehicles here in the US. Plus the Japanese and Koreans seem to sell US exclusive Trucks and massive SUV's here too. When it comes to choice, here in the US, we have lots. It's as long as you want something big. It's not because of CAFE standards that here in the US you see tons of pickups and SUV's while you go elsewhere, and it's not that way. We like big things and thus the reason why we complain about gas prices being so high. No matter how we sugarcoat it, feeding those beasts takes a lot. I'm part of the problem too. I only tow my Jeep behind my RV and get 8mpg.

 

[roaniecowpony]

What I see is that, GM and Ford dropped low margin vehicles and concentrated on high. The Japanese and Koreans somehow can sell those vehicles here in the US. Plus the Japanese and Koreans seem to sell US exclusive Trucks and massive SUV's here too. When it comes to choice, here in the US, we have lots. It's as long as you want something big. It's not because of CAFE standards that here in the US you see tons of pickups and SUV's while you go elsewhere, and it's not that way. We like big things and thus the reason why we complain about gas prices being so high. No matter how we sugarcoat it, feeding those beasts takes a lot. I'm part of the problem too. I only tow my Jeep behind my RV and get 8mpg.

I was thinking the same thing.

 

[TX_Ovrlnd]

My neighbors were huge advocates of switching everything they had to electric in their house. Made a small stink when I said I had no interest for the foreseeable future, obviously I'm selfish or something. The big winter freeze we had that shut down everyone's electricity killed their entire self sufficiency plan (I'm sure they didn't have one), meanwhile we had our gas stove with our fireplace as a backup for cooking (cast iron for the win). Infrastructure does not currently support the entire nation going full electric and the advocates for the switch are trying to legislate out the redundancies, that is pure ignorance.

I'll start taking things more seriously when they get rid of all the race cars/boats/cycles and other superfluous polluting stuff.

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