General thoughts on ICE depreciation?

[roaniecowpony]

That's what Moab will look like in 10 years.

Sponsored

 

[av8or]

Interesting replies and thanks for the viewpoints. It seems most people think that it’ll take years and it will be a slow adoption of EVs and you might be right.
If 2 years ago you’d have asked me if I’d be interested in EVs, I’d have said I don’t think so. Fast forward to today, and we have a worldwide vehicle shortage and high gas prices, and I have 2 EVs preordered. Things can change more quickly than some think.
Something to take into account is most of the pressure to switch to EVs comes from the rest of the world. China represents 50% of worldwide car sales and their adoption rate is high (about 25% of sales are EV in china), and Western Europe is about 15% of worldwide car sales and they are even higher in adoption rate (90% of new cars sold in Norway are EVs). Just those 2 alone represent 65% of auto sales worldwide.

In the past and still our American car companies supplied a large portion of world with its cars, but if they don’t switch and start to invest in EVs…….Who will they sell to? It could be that the investment into ice will end and those dollars will get pushed to the EV side of R&D. They’ll probably still build ice for awhile, but money developing new ones or improving existing ones may dry up.

maybe I’m crazy, but I’m getting while the getting is good. My wife’s new id4 cost 41k, and we get 10k off our taxes and 3 years of free charging (which at todays gas prices represents about another 10k). Plus trade in right now on her ice RAV4 is only 2k less than we paid for it in 2019. I’m placing my bet that the electric will depreciate slower than the ice.

 

[av8or]

And so far so good on the thread. Let’s try and keep it civil, it’s a discussion not an argument.

 

[NULL POINTER]

Again, Government to the rescue. Government will slap taxes on Fossil fuels to the point where it becomes prohibitively expensive to drive ICE vehicles. They are already shutting down refineries around TX and LA with more stringent regulations. Unless something changes, Government is going to force the adoption of EV's whether or not most people want them or if they are practical for ranchers in Wyoming. Meanwhile Government isn't even thinking about the power grid and all the new power lines and power generation, and attached land, that a massive EV rollout will require.

 

[rickinAZ]

I love my ICE vehicles, but I'm certainly up for transitioning when it makes more sense. Until our elected officials quit being driven by the extremists, right and left, we won't make any meaningful decisions on anything. And...infrastructure (key to EVs) is a great example. Who doesn't want our electrical grid, our roads, and bridges updated? Almost all of us, yet we are still in stalemate. And...can we do it without unrelated pork ruining it?

 

[TX_Ovrlnd]

And so far so good on the thread. Let’s try and keep it civil, it’s a discussion not an argument.

A discussion is an argument, they're synonyms unless you are of the fraction of the population who try to twist opposing viewpoints into heated remarks and then seek to silence said viewpoints because they do not fit the desired narrative being pushed.

I want a diesel EV hybrid capable of 600+ miles of range and good towing capacity.

 

[alleycat]

This is what your probably going to see on the Rubicon or Moab...

 

[rickinAZ]

This is what your probably going to see on the Rubicon or Moab...

Sorry...not buying it. The "popping up everywhere" part. Problem is, extremists (on both sides of the EV issue), post obscure examples and portray them as ubiquitous. Don't fall for it.

BTW, Alleycat, I'm certainly not painting you as an extremist. Thanks for posting.

 

[Nailgun]

I can't stand the term 'ICE'. It's just plain fucking stupid.

 

[AFD]

Nothing against EVs, but as long as manufacturers and world governments push electric vehicles further than there's an infrastructure to support them, the less ICE vehicles that are built, the more value they will hold. I don't necessarily foresee appreciation (outside of inflation), but it's very likely they could hold their value better than EVs (if mfgs continue producing more EVs, less ICE).

There could come a time where charging stations are as ubiquitous as gas pumps, and the EV vs ICE value could switch, but in countries like the US with vast rural and remote expanses, I really don't see this happening any time soon. Jmo.

 

[2nd 392]

Interesting replies and thanks for the viewpoints. It seems most people think that it’ll take years and it will be a slow adoption of EVs and you might be right.
If 2 years ago you’d have asked me if I’d be interested in EVs, I’d have said I don’t think so. Fast forward to today, and we have a worldwide vehicle shortage and high gas prices, and I have 2 EVs preordered. Things can change more quickly than some think.
Something to take into account is most of the pressure to switch to EVs comes from the rest of the world. China represents 50% of worldwide car sales and their adoption rate is high (about 25% of sales are EV in china), and Western Europe is about 15% of worldwide car sales and they are even higher in adoption rate (90% of new cars sold in Norway are EVs). Just those 2 alone represent 65% of auto sales worldwide.

In the past and still our American car companies supplied a large portion of world with its cars, but if they don’t switch and start to invest in EVs…….Who will they sell to? It could be that the investment into ice will end and those dollars will get pushed to the EV side of R&D. They’ll probably still build ice for awhile, but money developing new ones or improving existing ones may dry up.

maybe I’m crazy, but I’m getting while the getting is good. My wife’s new id4 cost 41k, and we get 10k off our taxes and 3 years of free charging (which at todays gas prices represents about another 10k). Plus trade in right now on her ice RAV4 is only 2k less than we paid for it in 2019. I’m placing my bet that the electric will depreciate slower than the ice.

When new battery technology doubles the range of new EV’s the current EV depreciation will be????

 

[GrayHawk20]

Ummm is this the same as how cash is going away and we’re all going to digital currency even if manufacturers are shifting away and states are restricting the sales of ice vehicles, I don’t see this happening! Not everyone can buy or afford a new electric car and there is always going to be a market for used ice vehicles so I don’t see the depreciations being that much! If your car might not be worth much in one state cause of the ice restrictions on vehicles you can sell to any other state People ship vehicles daily across country! Besides you can always sell your ice vehicles overseas and they will pay you way more then US market value!!

How I’ll be rolling if my state puts a restriction on ice vehicles….

 

[JL MADDOG]

I think the limits of our current electric infrastructure are such that well-meaning rulemakers are going to have to contend with a reality that they can't argue away.

Very true regarding the infrastructure challenges but the lawmakers will go ahead and pass the laws anyway.

Those lawmakers they should be held accountable for the impacts on society where the manufacturers, vehicle owners and the utility industry struggle to catch up to ill written, poorly timed and impossibly restrictive legislation.

 

[gato]

I’ve posed this exact question on a Rivian forum so I thought it might be interesting to see the take from this forum.

I’m all in on EVs, so it might be a little more obvious what I think. I’ve had a few conversations with friends and family about when the depreciation graph for ice vehicles will get very steep and to my surprise most of them think little will change in this regard for quite a while.
With so many states that are looking to end ice passenger car sales by 2030-2035, and car loans that get stretched out 6 and 7 years…..When do you think you want to get rid of your ice cars?


https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/washington-state-plans-ban-non-electric-vehicles-2030-rcna21683
Thats 7.5 years away.
Might be the first of many states to want to be greener than their neighbor.

You need to make distinctions for different types of ICE.

Diesel ICE resale, for example has already taken a massive hit in Europe as diesel went from 80%+ of passenger car sales in some European countries to under 10% in just 5 years. Diesel bans in some cities after dieselgate being one of the reasons.

In the US, the massive and increasing gap in diesel to gasoline prices at the pump, will have some effect as well on ICE diesel resale, but not to the same extent as Europe, since diesel is a tiny fraction of the passenger vehicle market here.

Conversely an ICE Ferrari or Porsche will be see huge increase in demand/resale as manufacturers phase them out.

Just to illustrate that not all ICE will suffer the same fate.

Over time, passenger vehicles are/will convert to EV faster than other users of heavy fuels (trucking/shipping/airliners/heating oil/etc). Gasoline is virtually only used for passenger vehicles. Since the proportion of gasoline to heavy fuels from a barrel of oil is mostly fixed, you can expect the gap of gasoline prices to diesel prices to continue to widen.

It is therefore possible that gasoline becomes very cheap 1-2 decades from now, and gasoline ICE becomes very attractive again. Specially if materials for battery production continue to get more expensive.

 

[Initial-Jeep]

I’ve posed this exact question on a Rivian forum so I thought it might be interesting to see the take from this forum.

I’m all in on EVs, so it might be a little more obvious what I think. I’ve had a few conversations with friends and family about when the depreciation graph for ice vehicles will get very steep and to my surprise most of them think little will change in this regard for quite a while.
With so many states that are looking to end ice passenger car sales by 2030-2035, and car loans that get stretched out 6 and 7 years…..When do you think you want to get rid of your ice cars?


https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/washington-state-plans-ban-non-electric-vehicles-2030-rcna21683
Thats 7.5 years away.
Might be the first of many states to want to be greener than their neighbor.

"plans" ban == click-bait political-pandering bullshit.

I don't see EVs causing depreciation of ICE vehicles.

I don't see full EVs being any more than a small part of the automotive market, if not niche.

Oh, and "never" would be the answer to your question--they don't fit my use cases at all whatsoever.

Sponsored