FCA Projects 2019 JL Sales Down from 2018

[Hadoken]

For comparison purposes, we’re comparing MSRP to MSRP from JK to JL, otherwise the comparisons get messy fast trying to reason with every imaginable deal that somebody cooked up (maybe they got a good price but screwed on trade, financing, etc). Most people aren’t flying around the country buying from regional volume dealers so that’s not really an impact from a FCA global sales standpoint.

That being said, back in 2012, I remember there was only one volume dealer on the Jeep forums back then and he was offering at most 3% below invoice with the affiliate code. Jeep’s were averaging around $30K or so so that was only about $300 off which was hardly the cost of a plane ticket. Now it seems like there’s a lot more built in margin for them to work with.

This is definitely true, I'm not sure if its more margin built in or just more supply so dealers are more willing to deal. When I ordered my 2016 JK the best deal in the country was 5% under invoice PLUS a $700 admin fee, so more like 3-4% under invoice when you add in the admin fee.
I tried working with my local dealer to get close to that price and he eventually told me he could sell it for retail to someone else, so he wouldn't ever sell a JKU for invoice price or less. Now looking at buying a JL and that same dealer is willing to do 6.5% under invoice with no doc fee without even haggling. They have probably 30% more inventory of JLs than they ever had with JKs too.

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[Majestic]

This is definitely true, I'm not sure if its more margin built in or just more supply so dealers are more willing to deal. When I ordered my 2016 JK the best deal in the country was 5% under invoice PLUS a $700 admin fee, so more like 3-4% under invoice when you add in the admin fee.
I tried working with my local dealer to get close to that price and he eventually told me he could sell it for retail to someone else, so he wouldn't ever sell a JKU for invoice price or less. Now looking at buying a JL and that same dealer is willing to do 6.5% under invoice with no doc fee without even haggling. They have probably 30% more inventory of JLs than they ever had with JKs too.

If you’re ordering a Jeep and they cut you a deal, then it’s not a supply issue they just want volume. The options alone in some cases are running almost $15k above the base price. There’s usually a lot more margin on options.
I see a lot of JL’s on the lot, but when I get specific on trim level and options, none of what I want exist within a 4 state radius.

I know back in 2012, during the summer the only Wranglers on the lot were fully optioned MW2’s (they had been sitting there since at least April (judging by the pollen stains), and stripped down Sports with steel wheels. Anything in the sweet spot in the middle didn’t exist anywhere.

 

[Hadoken]

If you’re ordering a Jeep and they cut you a deal, then it’s not a supply issue they just want volume. The options alone in some cases are running almost $15k above the base price. There’s usually a lot more margin on options.
I see a lot of JL’s on the lot, but when I get specific on trim level and options, none of what I want exist within a 4 state radius.

Same here in 2016 and now, I bought a steel wheeled sport manual but wanted the alpine stereo, premium soft top and tow package, a combo no dealer would ever keep on the lot. The volume dealers would go below invoice so FCA would increase their allocation of JKs in the future and the smaller local dealer didn’t need more so he wouldn’t deal. Or maybe I just caught him on a bad week.

 

[WranglerAz]

I have heard in 2019 each electric vehicle comes with a comforting soft pillow and an ice cream cone.

 

[cjaama]

Did you get tax rebates for installing solar? If so the rest of us paid for your payback.

No you didn’t. It’s a tax credit, not a tax rebate.
It’s amazing how people so opposed to paying taxes get so bent out of shape over other people’s tax exemptions when they don’t align with their politics.

 

[Majestic]

It's amazing that politics and tax policy ended up on a Jeep Forum about FCA's Jeep inventory.

 

[MrJeepNut]

It's amazing that politics and tax policy ended up on a Jeep Forum about FCA's Jeep inventory.

Politics in a Jeep Forum? Never seen that before, LOL!

If you check out some of the other Wrangler forums, you'll find that the political content in this one is a lot more tame, and the behavior is a lot more civil. That's one reason I'm still here, despite the fact that I decided against buying a JL at the current time. The thing that amazes me most about this thread, however, is that it is still going! I've been away from the forum for about a week, and it has more than doubled in size since then! I'll have to review it and see what all the hubbub is about this weekend when I have more time. I get the feeling it's mostly _not_ about Jeep sales figures, though.

 

[ramp4ge]

"It’s not the Jeep’s price that has really increased but the array of options. I’m willing to bet the market for bare bones stripped Jeep’s are almost non existent."

Jeeps have always gone through incremental upgrades that didn't drastically increase the MSRP. In 2008, you could buy a base-model Sport that didn't have tow hooks or fog lights on the front bumper. By 2010, those (and the Dana 44 rear axle) were standard on the most stripped of stripper Sports. And the MSRP was still +-$21,000.

Fast forward to 2019 and the most stripped of stripper Sports will carry an MSRP of $29,500... That's a manual with a soft top, steel wheels and no air conditioning...

I'm terribly sorry but a back-up camera and AC vents for the back seat that nobody's ever going to sit in aren't worth $8,000...

Then you look at other things like the rear license plate mounting to the bumper and various other oddities and I just kind of scratch my head and wonder how this thing's supposed to be better than a JK.

 

[Majestic]

"It’s not the Jeep’s price that has really increased but the array of options. I’m willing to bet the market for bare bones stripped Jeep’s are almost non existent."

Jeeps have always gone through incremental upgrades that didn't drastically increase the MSRP. In 2008, you could buy a base-model Sport that didn't have tow hooks or fog lights on the front bumper. By 2010, those (and the Dana 44 rear axle) were standard on the most stripped of stripper Sports. And the MSRP was still +-$21,000.

Fast forward to 2019 and the most stripped of stripper Sports will carry an MSRP of $29,500... That's a manual with a soft top, steel wheels and no air conditioning...

I'm terribly sorry but a back-up camera and AC vents for the back seat that nobody's ever going to sit in aren't worth $8,000...

Then you look at other things like the rear license plate mounting to the bumper and various other oddities and I just kind of scratch my head and wonder how this thing's supposed to be better than a JK.

Adjusting for inflation, $21k is $25k in today’s dollars. So the price actually went up $3500. That comes with a lot of features that used to be optional (or in the case of backup cameras and push button start, not even an option).
The softtop has dramatically improved and so has the engine and transmission interiors and electronics. Generation changes aside, Jeep’s upgrades are have always been minimal and continue to this day.

I’m seeing this everywhere now but stripped down budget cars are a dying breed. Cars last longer now so when somebody wants a cheap car they buy a slightly used fully loaded one. The low margin budget mobiles are getting dropped from the lineup completely.

The JK always felt cheap to me. Take a look at the original softtop, hood latches and door handles. Side airbags? Lol, sure gimme $500 and I’ll give you airbags. Backup camera? What’s that? Rope for a door tether, stickers for emblems, a gauge cluster from 1995.

 

[ramp4ge]

Cars don't "last longer" today than they used to. I have a 1985 Honda with 350,000 miles that still runs like a clock. I also have a 2005 Trailblazer who's transmission went bad at 70,000 miles, a Journey who's transmission is going bad at 75,000 miles and my JK that needed a new fuel tank at 50,000 miles.

Not everyone wants an instrument cluster with an LCD. Not everyone wants push-button start. Not everyone wants side airbags or backup cameras.These things might be fine in a super-cushy crossover, but the fact that Wranglers still ride like a tractor kind of defeats the purpose of creature comforts. You'd think a forum of Jeep owners would be the first to realize that. There's a certain charm - and definitely a market - for bare-bones basic vehicles. Honda knew that with the CRX, Jeep used to know that too. If Mahindra had been allowed to sell the Roxor as a street-legal vehicle, they'd sell like crazy. Because it's exactly what a lot of Jeep owners have wanted for a long time.

No matter how you try to put it, the entire running stock of the Wrangler is 1940s/50s technology. Slapping pretty LEDs on something that wouldn't have been out of place on a beach in Normandy in 1944 doesn't make it worth $30,000 at it's cheapest. Someone said it earlier. The Wrangler is FCA's biggest cash cow. And I agree with that. That'd be fine if they offered it in a truly stripped-down version that wasn't outrageously overpriced. But it just continues to get softer and more laden with gimmicks and their "no-compromise" cash cow is starting to feel pretty compromised. I can't imagine very many people would want to pay $35,000 for a near-base Sport and then take it out and break it.

If nothing else, the prices of the JLs will ensure that the values of TJs and JKs don't fall through the floor. Which is kind of a mixed blessing but that's what we've got.

 

[Majestic]

Cars don't "last longer" today than they used to. I have a 1985 Honda with 350,000 miles that still runs like a clock. I also have a 2005 Trailblazer who's transmission went bad at 70,000 miles, a Journey who's transmission is going bad at 75,000 miles and my JK that needed a new fuel tank at 50,000 miles.

Not everyone wants an instrument cluster with an LCD. Not everyone wants push-button start. Not everyone wants side airbags or backup cameras. You'd think a forum of Jeep owners would be the first to realize that. There's a certain charm - and definitely a market - for bare-bones basic vehicles. Honda knew that with the CRX, Jeep used to know that too. If Mahindra had been allowed to sell the Roxor as a street-legal vehicle, they'd sell like crazy. Because it's exactly what a lot of Jeep owners have wanted for a long time.

No, they’re lasting longer. Anecdotes aside, that fact is indisputable. There’s a reason odometers used to stop at 99,999.
It’s true, not everybody wants push button start and all but there’s not enough of those consumers to move the market. Even if the Mahindra was road legal few people would buy it, just like few people bought the original Jeep. The cushier they make the Jeep the more people buy it and Jeep makes what people want. Jeep owners talk a big game but in the end they like fancy things just like everybody else.

 

[Litfuse]

Cars don't "last longer" today than they used to. I have a 1985 Honda with 350,000 miles that still runs like a clock. I also have a 2005 Trailblazer who's transmission went bad at 70,000 miles, a Journey who's transmission is going bad at 75,000 miles and my JK that needed a new fuel tank at 50,000 miles.

Not everyone wants an instrument cluster with an LCD. Not everyone wants push-button start. Not everyone wants side airbags or backup cameras.These things might be fine in a super-cushy crossover, but the fact that Wranglers still ride like a tractor kind of defeats the purpose of creature comforts. You'd think a forum of Jeep owners would be the first to realize that. There's a certain charm - and definitely a market - for bare-bones basic vehicles. Honda knew that with the CRX, Jeep used to know that too. If Mahindra had been allowed to sell the Roxor as a street-legal vehicle, they'd sell like crazy. Because it's exactly what a lot of Jeep owners have wanted for a long time.

No matter how you try to put it, the entire running stock of the Wrangler is 1940s/50s technology. Slapping pretty LEDs on something that wouldn't have been out of place on a beach in Normandy in 1944 doesn't make it worth $30,000 at it's cheapest. Someone said it earlier. The Wrangler is FCA's biggest cash cow. And I agree with that. That'd be fine if they offered it in a truly stripped-down version that wasn't outrageously overpriced. But it just continues to get softer and more laden with gimmicks and their "no-compromise" cash cow is starting to feel pretty compromised. I can't imagine very many people would want to pay $35,000 for a near-base Sport and then take it out and break it.

If nothing else, the prices of the JLs will ensure that the values of TJs and JKs don't fall through the floor. Which is kind of a mixed blessing but that's what we've got.

I think you are right about TJ values, but I suspect JK values will drop. JL values are not holding, so it makes no sense that JK values hold.

 

[56nomad56]

Did you get tax rebates for installing solar? If so the rest of us paid for your payback. And rates in many parts of the country aren't as high as in SoCal so paybacks are longer. I designed several alt energy systems when I was an engineer and back then the only payback was using building design features - roof overhangs, mass walls to absorb solar heat and release it. But slowly the technology improved but it is only feasible now with government and utility incentives. I worked for a big farm and construction equipment company that had a finance division that build a lot of wind farms across the country. The only payback for them was the government tax breaks. They set it up so that the farmers that owned got the wind turbines after 10 years when the tax breaks stopped and the expected life of the equipment would require major costs.
As a side note, my neighbor is a Nissan salesman and has an all electric Leaf. He plugs it in at work so he doesn't pay for the fuel cost but this weekend he went on a trip. Sunday night a tow truck brought it home because the cold weather and lack of charging locations out in the country made it into a real brick.

Yes, it doesn't work for everyone. Here in So Cal it makes a lot of sense, with 300+ days of sunlight and we have a lot of roof space that faces south and west. Our system would have been $17,000, but with the tax CREDIT (not rebate) it was just over $12K. Our solar provided jobs and income for a local company and reduces the loads at peak usage times, reducing the chance of brown/blackouts. Utility rates have been skyrocketing in our area; our neighborhood forum was full of people complaining that their electricity bills this past summer were between $600-1,000. Per month.

Most people with PEVs or full EVs have multiple cars. If we ever got a full EV we would definitely still keep our '11 Pathfinder 4X4 for road trips and Home Depot runs.

 

[nerubi]

Yes, it doesn't work for everyone. Here in So Cal it makes a lot of sense, with 300+ days of sunlight and we have a lot of roof space that faces south and west. Our system would have been $17,000, but with the tax CREDIT (not rebate) it was just over $12K. Our solar provided jobs and income for a local company and reduces the loads at peak usage times, reducing the chance of brown/blackouts. Utility rates have been skyrocketing in our area; our neighborhood forum was full of people complaining that their electricity bills this past summer were between $600-1,000. Per month.

Most people with PEVs or full EVs have multiple cars. If we ever got a full EV we would definitely still keep our '11 Pathfinder 4X4 for road trips and Home Depot runs.

My highest electric bill last summer was $60, total electric for year $375. Makes it hard to get a payback here.

 

[nerubi]

No you didn’t. It’s a tax credit, not a tax rebate.
It’s amazing how people so opposed to paying taxes get so bent out of shape over other people’s tax exemptions when they don’t align with their politics.

Tax credit/rebate still costs others. Government needs X dollars and if one person gets a tax credit then someone else pays a higher tax to get it back to X. No politics involved, straight economics. All exemptions/credits should be removed and make everyone pay their proportional share.

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