2 DOOR JL build/order discussions master thread

[AdHerp]

On the bright side, perhaps this will allow some of the shipping delays to catch up...?

Fantastic perspective, very optimistic!

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[cedxc2005]

Fantastic perspective, very optimistic!

It's either that or despair...I'm trying here.

 

[AdHerp]

It's either that or despair...I'm trying here.

The fire was on May 2nd. I would think we'd notice the impact by now.

 

[JBall]

It's either that or despair...I'm trying here.

I’m gonna go with despair

 

[KDB]

Meridian Magnesium Products plant burns: https://www.usatoday.com/story/mone...-f-150-production-could-last-weeks/596462002/

Fiat Chrysler buys magnesium instrument panels from the supplier, aslo the speedometer, glove box, steering column support, heating and air-conditioning systems.
No word if the JL inner tailgate magnesium structure is made there (the only magnesium part I know of on the JL)

article also stated "The fire also affected production of the Fiat Chrysler Automobiles plant in Windsor, Ontario, that produces the Chrysler Pacifica minivan" so perhaps will NOT impact the JL's

 

[km58501]

I've been watching this thread very closely the last couple of weeks and I had come to the conclusion that I could probable expect my JL delivery (Ordered 10 Apr) sometime in Aug. Just for the heck of it I decided to signup for the tracking at jeepgarage.org and was shocked to find out that mine was build and is awaiting inspection.

km58501 (Wrangler Rubicon JL - Sting-Gray)
Date ordered: 04/10/2018
Current Status: I
D1 status date: 04/15/2018
Estimated delivery: TBD
Built pending inspection: 05/09/18 03:21:00 PM

JL Rubicon, Sting-Gray, Auto, Black HT, Color matched fenders, Cloth seats, Std Bumpers, Towing, Cold Weather, LED,

 

[cedxc2005]

The fire was on May 2nd. I would think we'd notice the impact by now.

Not necessarily. Depends on several factors:

1) Do the JLs use any parts from this supplier?
If # 1 is true:
1a) How many part units were salvageable?
1b) How many part units were shipped at the time of the fire?
1c) How many part units were stockpiled?
This will determine how long Toledo could keep making JLs in light of the fire. Depending on these answers, JL production may not be affected at all.

2) Same series of questions from #1 above, but for other manufacturers/ vehicles...
2a) How many non-JL vehicles are in storage waiting to be shipped? For example, Ford mentions in the article that they have 84 days' worth of F-150s stockpiled. Is that number representative of dealer stock, or are these trucks stored in lots like many of our Jeeps (and thus need to be shipped; see below)?
2b) Could a drop in shipping volume from other vehicle lines (from lack of production) free up shipping resources for the JLs? How many automotive carriers are there? How is the total demand for new vehicle shipping distributed amongst carriers?

3) How long until the factory can resume making these parts?
3a) How long until the supply chains can get back up to full capacity?
3b) How long until vehicle assembly lines are operating at full capacity?
3c) How long until we're "back to normal"?

Note that I don't know the answers to any of these questions, but I would ask those first if I had to get a real assessment of impact. Based on these questions above, we could easily be in a buffer; the effects on manufacturing may still be delayed while extra stocks of these parts are used up. Ford announced factory shutdowns yesterday. This thing still needs time to propagate throughout the industry...we could be seeing effects for weeks still.

The length of this window, from now until "back to normal" determines how long FCA could (conceivably) try to clear out the shipping backlog. I am fairly certain that the demand for new vehicle shipping will go down industry wide for a brief time. Whether or not FCA takes advantage of this (or can) is anyone's guess.

tl;dr - Factory fire means no special parts for several automakers, most notably the F-150. This could result in a decrease in new vehicle output, which could result in fewer new vehicles that have to be shipped, which may divert shipping resources to backlogged JLs. Maybe.

 

[008]

I've been watching this thread very closely the last couple of weeks and I had come to the conclusion that I could probable expect my JL delivery (Ordered 10 Apr) sometime in Aug. Just for the heck of it I decided to signup for the tracking at jeepgarage.org and was shocked to find out that mine was build and is awaiting inspection.

km58501 (Wrangler Rubicon JL - Sting-Gray)
Date ordered: 04/10/2018
Current Status: I
D1 status date: 04/15/2018
Estimated delivery: TBD
Built pending inspection: 05/09/18 03:21:00 PM

JL Rubicon, Sting-Gray, Auto, Black HT, Color matched fenders, Cloth seats, Std Bumpers, Towing, Cold Weather, LED,

Our orders are nearly identical. I’m also pending inspection though I’ve been there for a week, hope nothings wrong. I ordered 12/12/17 and went D1 on 4/15 too.

 

[Tjax]

Not necessarily. Depends on several factors:

1) Do the JLs use any parts from this supplier?
If # 1 is true:
1a) How many part units were salvageable?
1b) How many part units were shipped at the time of the fire?
1c) How many part units were stockpiled?
This will determine how long Toledo could keep making JLs in light of the fire. Depending on these answers, JL production may not be affected at all.

2) Same series of questions from #1 above, but for other manufacturers/ vehicles...
2a) How many non-JL vehicles are in storage waiting to be shipped? For example, Ford mentions in the article that they have 84 days' worth of F-150s stockpiled. Is that number representative of dealer stock, or are these trucks stored in lots like many of our Jeeps (and thus need to be shipped; see below)?
2b) Could a drop in shipping volume from other vehicle lines (from lack of production) free up shipping resources for the JLs? How many automotive carriers are there? How is the total demand for new vehicle shipping distributed amongst carriers?

3) How long until the factory can resume making these parts?
3a) How long until the supply chains can get back up to full capacity?
3b) How long until vehicle assembly lines are operating at full capacity?
3c) How long until we're "back to normal"?

Note that I don't know the answers to any of these questions, but I would ask those first if I had to get a real assessment of impact. Based on these questions above, we could easily be in a buffer; the effects on manufacturing may still be delayed while extra stocks of these parts are used up. Ford announced factory shutdowns yesterday. This thing still needs time to propagate throughout the industry...we could be seeing effects for weeks still.

The length of this window, from now until "back to normal" determines how long FCA could (conceivably) try to clear out the shipping backlog. I am fairly certain that the demand for new vehicle shipping will go down industry wide for a brief time. Whether or not FCA takes advantage of this (or can) is anyone's guess.

tl;dr - Factory fire means no special parts for several automakers, most notably the F-150. This could result in a decrease in new vehicle output, which could result in fewer new vehicles that have to be shipped, which may divert shipping resources to backlogged JLs. Maybe.

From Detroit Free Press:

The fire also affected production of the Fiat Chrysler Automobiles plant in Windsor, Ontario, that produces the Chrysler Pacifica minivan.

Fiat Chrysler spokeswoman Jodi Tinson said, "The company is adjusting production schedules as needed to minimize plant downtime, but will make up any lost production. FCA continues to work with the supplier’s team on recovery efforts."

Windsor Assembly employs 6,100 workers on three shifts, according to a company fact sheet.

In addition to the Pacifica and Pacifica Hybrid, the plant produces the Dodge Grand Caravan. The Jeep Wrangler is not affected, Tinson confirmed.

Hopefully this is accurate regarding the Wrangler!

 

[cedxc2005]

From Detroit Free Press:

The fire also affected production of the Fiat Chrysler Automobiles plant in Windsor, Ontario, that produces the Chrysler Pacifica minivan.

Fiat Chrysler spokeswoman Jodi Tinson said, "The company is adjusting production schedules as needed to minimize plant downtime, but will make up any lost production. FCA continues to work with the supplier’s team on recovery efforts."

Windsor Assembly employs 6,100 workers on three shifts, according to a company fact sheet.

In addition to the Pacifica and Pacifica Hybrid, the plant produces the Dodge Grand Caravan. The Jeep Wrangler is not affected, Tinson confirmed.

Hopefully this is accurate regarding the Wrangler!

So, that answers #1 on my list...now to see if the additional shipping capacity is both real and can be taken advantage of by FCA...

 

[AdHerp]

Not necessarily. Depends on several factors:

1) Do the JLs use any parts from this supplier?
If # 1 is true:
1a) How many part units were salvageable?
1b) How many part units were shipped at the time of the fire?
1c) How many part units were stockpiled?
This will determine how long Toledo could keep making JLs in light of the fire. Depending on these answers, JL production may not be affected at all.

2) Same series of questions from #1 above, but for other manufacturers/ vehicles...
2a) How many non-JL vehicles are in storage waiting to be shipped? For example, Ford mentions in the article that they have 84 days' worth of F-150s stockpiled. Is that number representative of dealer stock, or are these trucks stored in lots like many of our Jeeps (and thus need to be shipped; see below)?
2b) Could a drop in shipping volume from other vehicle lines (from lack of production) free up shipping resources for the JLs? How many automotive carriers are there? How is the total demand for new vehicle shipping distributed amongst carriers?

3) How long until the factory can resume making these parts?
3a) How long until the supply chains can get back up to full capacity?
3b) How long until vehicle assembly lines are operating at full capacity?
3c) How long until we're "back to normal"?

Note that I don't know the answers to any of these questions, but I would ask those first if I had to get a real assessment of impact. Based on these questions above, we could easily be in a buffer; the effects on manufacturing may still be delayed while extra stocks of these parts are used up. Ford announced factory shutdowns yesterday. This thing still needs time to propagate throughout the industry...we could be seeing effects for weeks still.

The length of this window, from now until "back to normal" determines how long FCA could (conceivably) try to clear out the shipping backlog. I am fairly certain that the demand for new vehicle shipping will go down industry wide for a brief time. Whether or not FCA takes advantage of this (or can) is anyone's guess.

tl;dr - Factory fire means no special parts for several automakers, most notably the F-150. This could result in a decrease in new vehicle output, which could result in fewer new vehicles that have to be shipped, which may divert shipping resources to backlogged JLs. Maybe.

Wow. You must lay awake at night.

 

[cedxc2005]

Wow. You must lay awake at night.

Not really...I just use way too much logic...like, all the time.

 

[JeepPunk]

I very rarely contribute but am a multiple times per day thread reading lurker.
I’d like to give a shout and thank you to the creator of cryptostickers! Seeing my build sheet pop up in my email is definately a highlight in a less than stellar order experience.
Even though I’m on the track list on the other forum that shows I’m in I, (built 5/9) and got an email from fca stating I was in paint Tuesday this made it seem the most real.
Plus seeing all the options I selected months ago gives me some piece of mind that everything is as it should be. So if not already; get yourself on that list.
Now to wait on shipping
Punk’n Rubi manual, blk hardtop, cold weather, trailer, alpine.
Ordered 2/9

 

[jman]

I very rarely contribute but am a multiple times per day thread reading lurker.
I’d like to give a shout and thank you to the creator of cryptostickers! Seeing my build sheet pop up in my email is definately a highlight in a less than stellar order experience.
Even though I’m on the track list on the other forum that shows I’m in I, (built 5/9) and got an email from fca stating I was in paint Tuesday this made it seem the most real.
Plus seeing all the options I selected months ago gives me some piece of mind that everything is as it should be. So if not already; get yourself on that list.
Now to wait on shipping
Punk’n Rubi manual, blk hardtop, cold weather, trailer, alpine.
Ordered 2/9

Hey we have the same build and pretty much same order date. What part of the country is yours going to?

 

[JBall]

From Detroit Free Press:

The fire also affected production of the Fiat Chrysler Automobiles plant in Windsor, Ontario, that produces the Chrysler Pacifica minivan.

Fiat Chrysler spokeswoman Jodi Tinson said, "The company is adjusting production schedules as needed to minimize plant downtime, but will make up any lost production. FCA continues to work with the supplier’s team on recovery efforts."

Windsor Assembly employs 6,100 workers on three shifts, according to a company fact sheet.

In addition to the Pacifica and Pacifica Hybrid, the plant produces the Dodge Grand Caravan. The Jeep Wrangler is not affected, Tinson confirmed.

Hopefully this is accurate regarding the Wrangler!

Thanks so much for posting this!

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