JL resale values are insane!

[Jeep’n Jay]

Kelly Blue Book says my 2018 Sahara with every major option on it and only 6,200 miles is worth $45,000 to a dealer. I paid $38,000 four months before the pandemic hit.

I added about $3,500 in Katzkin leather seats and a Mopar lift.

I barely drive it. I am tempted to get the cash and run. Perhaps wait a few months for the market to cool off and see what else to get.

I still have the OE wheels and front bumper. I may swap the Quadratec wheels and steel bumper and sell them separately. I never got around to installing the winch.

Thoughts?

Coming from somebody working on the wholesale side of the auto industry, this shortage will not last a few months. It is predicted to return to "normal" in 2025. The supply chains have been hit hard, there are no materials, and most new manufacturing is moving very slow, if at all, because of this. If you can get buy without the Jeep by all means sell it, in fact those values are going up weekly on the used market. In 2018 I paid 29k for mine. Granted I have added at least 8k in upgrades, but I could get every dime back I put into it where I live. Not worth it for me, as I am in this for the long haul.

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[aldo98229]

How does owing ~$20K on your Jeep note qualify as "pretty much paid for"?

Everything is relative. When a new one costs $60,000, owing $20,000 means it is two-thirds paid for.

This jump in resale values is likely temporary, but the steady rise in MSRPs is very likely permanent.

 

[CarbonSteel]

$51,450 for mine at Vroom and $45,092 at Carvana. I'll keep it, there could never be another Grinch

 

[csjlu]

Good thing I’m waiting for the 2022s. I remember when there was a hard drive shortage back in 2011-12 and “experts” talking about computers ballooning to 10x their normal cost. I don’t doubt there’s actual shortages happening but it always seems like pending doom is on the horizon. Haha.

It's real. I've listened to many semiconductor earnings calls in the past two weeks. Intel has been having trouble manufacturing at the 7 nm process node, and Asian typhoon droughts have limited water supply for foundry manufacturing. Apple said they will be supply constrained on several products through 2021, and they are the best supply chain managers in the world. Apple, Amazon, Facebook, Google and Microsoft are all spending heavily on data centers. If you ran a chip fab would you prioritize filling orders for multi-$100/$1000 CPUs and GPUs? Or would you focus on making $0.75 analog chips used in autos? You are right that things will eventually work out - Intel will figure out EUV sooner or later, and it will rain again in Asia - but until then I'd expect things to remain tight. The available dealer inventory in my metro area has drawn down 50% in three months and what's left is slim pickings.

 

[txj2go]

It's real. I've listened to many semiconductor earnings calls in the past two weeks...

I'm not sure we understand the full impact of crypto currency on this. Crypto currency created this what I would call arbitrary demand for compute power. They could manage their accounting another way.

I bought my JLU used and got the best price I could get at the time. I bought it to use and I'm using it. I've been on several trips this year already and I have 3 or 4 more trips planned for the rest of the year. Nobody can have my JLU unless they bring me a better one in trade, so it's staying here no matter what its value might be. OTOH my wife wants me to sell my second car but I'm not sure that its value is going up the same way. If somebody wanted it for $20k then I would hand them the keys (or she would hand them the keys).

 

[Digiwolf]

mmm smells like lies up in here. I just check mine on vroom and it gave me the same as kbb trade in value.

 

[JeepAdmin]

I think Wranglers in general are insane right now. I can't find a good shape TJ Rubicon for less than $17K. $20K seems to be the norm. $20,000 for a 15yo 4x4 with 120,000 on the clicker. THAT, is insane.

 

[csjlu]

I'm not sure we understand the full impact of crypto currency on this. Crypto currency created this what I would call arbitrary demand for compute power. They could manage their accounting another way.

I bought my JLU used and got the best price I could get at the time. I bought it to use and I'm using it. I've been on several trips this year already and I have 3 or 4 more trips planned for the rest of the year. Nobody can have my JLU unless they bring me a better one in trade, so it's staying here no matter what its value might be. OTOH my wife wants me to sell my second car but I'm not sure that its value is going up the same way. If somebody wanted it for $20k then I would hand them the keys (or she would hand them the keys).

You make a good point, and one that I forgot to mention. Much of the crypto mining occurs in China where GHG emission regulation is looser. Demand for crypto mining may rollover - I don't have a good feel for that - but Chinese demand likely remains strong as they are worried about getting frozen out of the global semi market when the US re-domesticates semi manufacturing supply chains. China has been doubling and tripling up on chip orders to ensure a healthy inventory in case trade wars with the US re-escalate, which has contributed to global supply tightness. I'd expect this to last until some new fabs get built in AZ, which could take 1-2 years.

 

[RoadiJeff]

Accepted Vroom offer yesterday for my 2019 Rubicon for $53,135. I paid $47k in December of 2018 and plan to re-order a 2022 with a couple different options and maybe a different color.

Hmm...I went on Vroom yesterday just to see what they'd value our 2020 Recon at. We bought it a year ago, it is in prestine condition and had an MSRP of a little over $58k. Yet, Vroom only offered me $47,865. I'm not planning to sell, just curious.

 

[aldo98229]

I wouldn’t be surprised if there’s a glitch in Vroom’s and Carvana’s algorithm that keeps driving resale values up and up the moment the detect inventories tightening...

The reality is those algorithms were not developed to cope with COVID, shutdowns, WFH, or semi-conductor shortages.

The moment someone figures out that the computers are running amock and pulls the plug, the entire thing could come down fast like a house of cards.

This whole thing smells, looks and walks like a “bubble.”

 

[stevieb92]

For shits and giggles, I entered the info for my 2020 JLUR. The MSRP on it was right at $56k when I bought it last June. It is in excellent condition since I don't use it for daily commuting and it only has 5900 miles. I can easily return it to stock. Their offer was $53k. I have no intention of selling, but was really curious.

 

[RagTopDeluxe]

Yeah, I used to call it the Fiata.

But Spider and MX-5 are so different in design, sound and demeanor that it doesn't quite apply.

Oh, I agree! I had an ND. Awesome car. I liked the Fiat, too.

 

[Pig-Pen]

mmm smells like lies up in here. I just check mine on vroom and it gave me the same as kbb trade in value.

it depends on where you live.

 

[VolvDL]

2018 Rubicon, 44k miles. Every option other than trail rail and smokers. $47k. Happy i have no urge to consider a sale. Brings back the feelings from when I bought the Jeep though, that everyone on Earth negotiated well, and I'm a fool. Fool with a great Jeep though.

 

[King Nothing]

mmm smells like lies up in here. I just check mine on vroom and it gave me the same as kbb trade in value.

I ran my wife’s JKU on KBB and Vroom’s offer is right at the extreme high end of KBB. Way more than I expected to get for it

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