I said this in another thread a few weeks back:Unfortunately it's a double edged sword, because if the insane pricing on JL/JT brings sales numbers down (which I've always expected that it will) then what that will result in is larger rebates on Wranglers; something we've never seen before. And when that happens, the amazing resale value that used Wranglers have always enjoyed will also take a dive which will screw people who are in leases or who are in the early years of a buy.
See.... one way or the other greed always comes back to bite. FCA should have keep pricing fair and in line with the midsize segment for the benefit of everyone involved.
Exactly...I said this in another thread a few weeks back:
Automotive News ran a very interesting article about current dealer JL inventories and how they feel about FCAs approach with the vehicle. FCA is cranking out so many Wranglers, dealer lots have ballooned with over 160 days worth of inventory. To put it in perspective, this is more than double of the JK when it was for sale new. Dealers are worried about this and two other factors. Inflated prices compared to the JK being one and the other being the amount of Wranglers that have been registered as fleet vehicles. In 2016, only 4% were fleet vehicles and now that is nearly 12%. They predict the JL will retain a 54% of its price after 5 years. That is down 20% when compared to historical JK data. I don’t see FCAs practices impacting the value of CJ, YJ or TJ, but definitely JK and JL.
Let's say that only 75% of the 99,000 2018 JK's were sold last year. That would mean a 13% decline from 2017 JK to 2018 JL. (190,000 to 165,000). You're still looking at a double digit decline for an all new redesigned model, not growth. If 85% of the '18 JK's were sold that would mean a 18% sales decline for JL.I’m still trying to wrap my head around that if we don’t know the split. Sure, they wanted embellish by combining the numbers, but that doesn’t mean JL didn’t outpace JK year over year growth from 2008-2017.
I’ll give you that 2019 will tell a lot. The JK was in a slight decline from 2015 where they sold 203k wranglers, then a 5% drop in 2016 and 2017 to 190k sold. I’d be curious to see how many JKs are still on the lot. I won’t speculate the percentage sold.Let's say that only 75% of the 99,000 2018 JK's were sold last year. That would mean a 13% decline from 2017 JK to 2018 JL. (190,000 to 165,000). You're still looking at a double digit decline for an all new redesigned model, not growth. If 85% of the '18 JK's were sold that would mean a 18% sales decline for JL.
2019 will be a telling year since it will be 99% JL sales, but now they are really pushing fleet sales to try and keep numbers up.
The last 3 full years of only JK (2015-17) averaged 194,000 sales. When they retooled Toledo for JL, they had their sights set on production of well over 200k.