FCA Projects 2019 JL Sales Down from 2018

GreyFox

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You won't find any charging stations in my neck of the woods, err fields. But you could run it on corn. :CWL:

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MrJeepNut

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A PHEV Jeep would do just fine on a cross-country trip.
 

Jeeptimus Prime

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I can expect the 2019 numbers to go down, especially after the price increases to many of the options.
 

MikeHoncho

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I have a buddy that purchased an all electric car because his job had the plugs in the parking lot. Sooner after he made the purchase his company made the decision to start charging its employees to charge their vehicles in their property.
 

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Unfortunately it's a double edged sword, because if the insane pricing on JL/JT brings sales numbers down (which I've always expected that it will) then what that will result in is larger rebates on Wranglers; something we've never seen before. And when that happens, the amazing resale value that used Wranglers have always enjoyed will also take a dive which will screw people who are in leases or who are in the early years of a buy.

See.... one way or the other greed always comes back to bite. FCA should have keep pricing fair and in line with the midsize segment for the benefit of everyone involved.
I said this in another thread a few weeks back:

Automotive News ran a very interesting article about current dealer JL inventories and how they feel about FCAs approach with the vehicle. FCA is cranking out so many Wranglers, dealer lots have ballooned with over 160 days worth of inventory. To put it in perspective, this is more than double of the JK when it was for sale new. Dealers are worried about this and two other factors. Inflated prices compared to the JK being one and the other being the amount of Wranglers that have been registered as fleet vehicles. In 2016, only 4% were fleet vehicles and now that is nearly 12%. They predict the JL will retain a 54% of its price after 5 years. That is down 20% when compared to historical JK data. I don’t see FCAs practices impacting the value of CJ, YJ or TJ, but definitely JK and JL.
 

SecondTJ

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I said this in another thread a few weeks back:

Automotive News ran a very interesting article about current dealer JL inventories and how they feel about FCAs approach with the vehicle. FCA is cranking out so many Wranglers, dealer lots have ballooned with over 160 days worth of inventory. To put it in perspective, this is more than double of the JK when it was for sale new. Dealers are worried about this and two other factors. Inflated prices compared to the JK being one and the other being the amount of Wranglers that have been registered as fleet vehicles. In 2016, only 4% were fleet vehicles and now that is nearly 12%. They predict the JL will retain a 54% of its price after 5 years. That is down 20% when compared to historical JK data. I don’t see FCAs practices impacting the value of CJ, YJ or TJ, but definitely JK and JL.
Exactly...

Aug 2016 - 33 day supply with 23k sitting on dealer lots
Dec 2018 - 135 day supply with 85k sitting on dealer lots

https://www.autonews.com/sales/jeep-wrangler-inventories-grow-even-sales-climb
 
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SecondTJ

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I’m still trying to wrap my head around that if we don’t know the split. Sure, they wanted embellish by combining the numbers, but that doesn’t mean JL didn’t outpace JK year over year growth from 2008-2017.
Let's say that only 75% of the 99,000 2018 JK's were sold last year. That would mean a 13% decline from 2017 JK to 2018 JL. (190,000 to 165,000). You're still looking at a double digit decline for an all new redesigned model, not growth. If 85% of the '18 JK's were sold that would mean a 18% sales decline for JL.

2019 will be a telling year since it will be 99% JL sales, but now they are really pushing fleet sales to try and keep numbers up.

The last 3 full years of only JK (2015-17) averaged 194,000 sales. When they retooled Toledo for JL, they had their sights set on production of well over 200k.
 

Oilslick

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Damn, shouldn't have bought back in April ,sounds like big rebates coming? The top/door less memories from last summer are great but I could have saved money,eh? Local dealer is flush with wranglers,lots of 18's, something is going to give. Seriously, no regrets.
 

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January of last year the lots were packed with JK’s. I couldn’t believe Jeep was sending so many to the dealerships knowing a new one was on the way. But JL’s were almost non existent on lots the first half of the year. I don’t like tripling fleet sales. But I guess if they are making a profit at it, we know why they do it. The first few months of this year is like JL sales bs JK sales. Then in late spring and the next few months it’s going to be like JL sales vs JL and JK. Although sales may be down this year, this year will give a good indication of how the JL does, and how people react to the price.
 
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MrJeepNut

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Damn, shouldn't have bought back in April ,sounds like big rebates coming? The top/door less memories from last summer are great but I could have saved money,eh? Local dealer is flush with wranglers,lots of 18's, something is going to give. Seriously, no regrets.
no-ragrets.jpg
 

Jaym

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Let's say that only 75% of the 99,000 2018 JK's were sold last year. That would mean a 13% decline from 2017 JK to 2018 JL. (190,000 to 165,000). You're still looking at a double digit decline for an all new redesigned model, not growth. If 85% of the '18 JK's were sold that would mean a 18% sales decline for JL.

2019 will be a telling year since it will be 99% JL sales, but now they are really pushing fleet sales to try and keep numbers up.

The last 3 full years of only JK (2015-17) averaged 194,000 sales. When they retooled Toledo for JL, they had their sights set on production of well over 200k.
I’ll give you that 2019 will tell a lot. The JK was in a slight decline from 2015 where they sold 203k wranglers, then a 5% drop in 2016 and 2017 to 190k sold. I’d be curious to see how many JKs are still on the lot. I won’t speculate the percentage sold.
Also, January 2019 numbers are showing 13k sold, which is higher than any other January I can find on record, but again, to my point, that could still be leftover JKs on lots for all we know, right?
 

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My dealers here still have JK’s for sale. They’re not really marked down and they look so stale compared to the JL’s.
Not sure what’s going on with the conflicting Jeep sales articles, but if they are selling less of them, but making more money on them after the price hikes, it probably doesn’t matter.

I guess they figure if people are willing to pay $60k for a truck, $50K for a Jeep isn’t really a stretch.
 

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We put solar on our house just over two years ago. With current electricity rates we will reach break even point (we bought our system) in about 2.5 years. We also added a panel more than we needed to "futureproof" our system in case we buy an EV.

I agree with your statement in general. For our household, in just a few years from now our electricity will be effectively free, and a hybrid or PEV Jeep would save us tons of money per year. I would still hesitate on buying new tech from FCA, especially since the newest recall on the Ram truck indicates they can't even attach steering wheels or brake pedals without having issues...:headbang:
 

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