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2022 vs 2023

Whaler27

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A lot of people recommending to wait, when 2023 is similar to 2022 in almost every way, except price. I hope OP didn't wait, otherwise they'd be paying more for the same.
My guess is waiting even longer will eventually pay off.

I hate to say “I told you so” (not really), but the inflation and recession so many of us predicted two years ago has arrived with vengeance and is expected to deepen (CPI at 9.1% as of June). That amounts to every household getting an income cut of that size and more, and many American households are living on less monthly margin that that. The combination of the equally predictable skyrocketing interest rates (to slow inflation) and high gas prices will sharply suppress Jeep sales. Historically, that has produced swelling Jeep inventories and, shortly thereafter, big rebates, special financing, and cash back offers on jeeps. If you’re shopping for a jeep, that might be great news — as long as you’re not also trading a jeep. Speaking from experience, generous rebates and 0% financing on new jeeps is devastating to the value of used jeeps.
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My guess is waiting even longer will eventually pay off.

I hate to say “I told you so” (not really), but the inflation and recession so many of us predicted two years ago has arrived with vengeance and is expected to deepen (CPI at 9.1% as of June). That amounts to every household getting an income cut of that size and more, and many American households are living on less monthly margin that that. The combination of the equally predictable skyrocketing interest rates (to slow inflation) and high gas prices will sharply suppress Jeep sales. Historically, that has produced swelling Jeep inventories and, shortly thereafter, big rebates, special financing, and cash back offers on jeeps. If you’re shopping for a jeep, that might be great news — as long as you’re not also trading a jeep. Speaking from experience, generous rebates and 0% financing on new jeeps is devastating to the value of used jeeps.
Have those high gas prices sharply suppressed Wrangler sales? During and post-COVID it seems like Wrangler buyers have pretty much ignored fuel prices since they just want to get into the outdoors. RVs, on the other hand...
 

Whaler27

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Have those high gas prices sharply suppressed Wrangler sales? During and post-COVID it seems like Wrangler buyers have pretty much ignored fuel prices since they just want to get into the outdoors. RVs, on the other hand...
I'm not sure, although I am starting to see more new inventory on car lots, and used values have definitely declined. The cost of construction materials has dropped sharply too -- it's a supply and demand dynamic.

But I probably wasn't clear above. I didn't mean to say that gas prices alone would kill sales. I meant to suggest that there's a cumulative effect when high vehicle fuel prices are combined with high interest rates, which are combined with high inflation adversely impacting the cost of food, home fuel oil, and other essentials.

Our kids were looking at a $300,000 mortgage 18 months ago. The payment would have been just over $1,000 per month. Today the same mortgage would cost them over $2,000 per month. At the same time, their food budget for a family of four has jumped almost $700 per month and other costs have risen sharply too. The net impact in buying power for that little family is well over $2000 (spendable) per month over that short period of time. With Oregon's tax structure they'd have to bring in an additional $3000 per month to net the extra $2000 per month spendable. That's an extra $36,000 per year. They've both gotten raises, but they're both well in the hole and looking for other job opportunities which,. coincidentally, are also less abundant that they were at this time last year. I don't think their experience is unique. Maybe I'm wrong. We'll know soon -- but I think there are a lot of Americans who live paycheck to paycheck and can't absorb these influences and still go shopping for a new car..
 

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Some items will decline in price, it's about supply vs demand vs the state of the economy altogether. Tangible items are generally a good thing to finance during high inflationary times. The money you pay back is worth far less than the money you borrowed and with the current fed program of sinking us into trillions of dollars of debt while endlessly printing dollars, it's not going away. Property generally is a good hedge against inflation, just don't pay too much for it. Some vehicles are also good investments due to future potential for collectability. A new excavator I purchased a couple of years ago is worth more now than I paid for it. Inflation did that. Just choose wisely.
 

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The combination of the equally predictable skyrocketing interest rates (to slow inflation) and high gas prices will sharply suppress Jeep sales. Historically, that has produced swelling Jeep inventories and, shortly thereafter, big rebates, special financing, and cash back offers on jeeps.

If you’re shopping for a jeep, that might be great news — as long as you’re not also trading a jeep.
A family member has deferred her intended Wrangler purchase until Spring 2023. I've been assisting her with the configuration process (via the Build A Jeep website), and have been monitoring price trends via that site and through forum threads such as this one.

It was during our most recent chat, where I mentioned the Wrangler's latest observed price creep, that she mentioned for the first time the possibility of being priced out of the purchase if said creep continues in a linear fashion. Wanting to maintain the proper expectations, I replied that such a thing might occur, and to be prepared for it. The issue here is that her build is a modestly configured Sport, so there's very little fat available for trimming.

Time will tell. Possibly the silver lining to this shitshow we call the economy will be the cooling of recurring price increases, paired with the rollout of rebates, etc. that we rarely, if ever, see available for the Wrangler.
 

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Whaler27

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A family member has deferred her intended Wrangler purchase until Spring 2023. I've been assisting her with the configuration process (via the Build A Jeep website), and have been monitoring price trends via that site and through forum threads such as this one.

It was during our most recent chat, where I mentioned the Wrangler's latest observed price creep, that she mentioned for the first time the possibility of being priced out of the purchase if said creep continues in a linear fashion. Wanting to maintain the proper expectations, I replied that such a thing might occur, and to be prepared for it. The issue here is that her build is a modestly configured Sport, so there's very little fat available for trimming.

Time will tell. Possibly the silver lining to this shitshow we call the economy will be the cooling of recurring price increases, paired with the rollout of rebates, etc. that we rarely, if ever, see available for the Wrangler.
It's all very nervous-making, but I'm betting on all American automakers to do what they have always done, which is continue producing at the rate required to keep the plants busy. If they do that, I think they'll eventually offer big factory discounts and financing support, but Stellantis is a new twist. Perhaps Stellantis leadership will adjust production downward to maintain elevated pricing. I've never seen that, but it's certainly possible.
 

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Some vehicles are also good investments due to future potential for collectability. A new excavator I purchased a couple of years ago is worth more now than I paid for it. Inflation did that. Just choose wisely.
Much of the extremely over-inflated pricing for used vehicles was the result of supply constraints on new vehicles. I got lucky when my last JLUR was totaled and received several thousand more than what I'd paid for it 16 months prior, but those days are gone now that production is catching up with demand.
 

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Much of the extremely over-inflated pricing for used vehicles was the result of supply constraints on new vehicles. I got lucky when my last JLUR was totaled and received several thousand more than what I'd paid for it 16 months prior, but those days are gone now that production is catching up with demand.
That is absolutely true! However, new everything will continue to flow and there is no stopping price increases due the out of control spending which inflates costs with little return.
 

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I don’t know and I think it’s hard to predict what’s gonna happen in the next year or so but one thing is obvious with everything going on economically and people financially we’re all going to be in for an interesting ride 😬😬😬
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