General thoughts on ICE depreciation?

[roaniecowpony]

Japan bullet trains are nice and convenient for getting around, their transportation system is one of the best I've experienced. Easy to develop when your military power is gutted and not allowed to fund or expand much until recently. Japan (Europe as well) also has highways you can stop along and buy squid pieces (I prefer the ticket ramen) and coffee to keep yourself awake so let's not pretend it doesn't exist.

America is a unique problem, our states are governed independently and as such aren't always in unison when it comes to interconnecting transportation or city planning for public transport/foot traffic. We do have some passenger train routes and bus stations though. The problem is mostly urban people trying to tell rural people how they need to live without actually understanding how difficult that would be to make happen. Not everyone is eager to own nothing and be happy about it.

Just my experience with the Japanese culture, they still have an authoritarian culture that affects how "things are done" in Japan and throughout their business lives. I lived there 7 years decades ago.

I had forgot about that aspect of their culture until I was late in my career with Boeing and was dealing with the airlines over there directly. When they're given direction from their management, it's not a "why don't you see if you can get this done" task. It's an order, akin to a military order, with dire consequences for failing. There is no discussion unless the superior asks for it and that doesn't happen.

This has been a problem with their flight crews, because our expectation is a subordinate flight deck crew member will speak up when they see something going south. But they have this cultural thing about speaking up against a superior. Their culture isn't the only one, but it is a culture that explains how things can get done in Japan that you can't do here. Or certainly not easily here.

I'm sure we look like a bunch of anarchists to them.

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[roaniecowpony]

Circling back to the original question of depreciation of a ICE vehicle, presuming the question pertains to a vehicle bought recently or in the very near future, I would put my money on its value not being appreciably affected by the EV movement, such that it deviates from previous history. A near future Republican shift in our country's leadership would support that further.

 

[roaniecowpony]

I owned a Tesla M3 that I sold for a profit last year. I have a Model Y on order. I enjoy the drivability of an EV an look forward to owning one again, especially for short and mid range trips. That said it will be many years before ICE vehicles won’t be made and sold, especially for situations involving towing and hauling. Battery technology is still too clunky and comparatively slow to “fuel”.

The real joke is our national planners and politicians. I’m all for helping the environment, but until China and India stop building coal fired electric plants, our carbon sequestration efforts are nothing more than an expensive and nearly meaningless effort.

And the joke is on us.

 

[T Town]

When an EV can give me the room and cargo capacity of my F150, the 650-700 mile range of my 36 gallon gasoline tank on my F150 with cargo and passengers, and the ability to refuel and be back on the road in 15 minutes, I'll stick with my ICE vehicles.

I have to laugh at California mandating EV sales. The state has rolling brownouts now, and worse in the summer. How is their electric grid going to keep up with EV charging demand when it cannot meet current demand?

Typical Government, no planning for an orderly and smooth transition from fossil fuels to other power sources. Just like laying off Keystone pipe line workers making good pay, and promising them jobs in green energy making solar panels. The layoffs happened, the green energy replacement jobs for those workers have not happened, well maybe in China where all the solar panels come from.

I’ve got to hand it to this guy. Even when an electric vehicle can do everything his gas vehicle does he’s still going to stick with his ICE. No matter what gas costs by then.
That, my friends, is dedication.

 

[roaniecowpony]

The bright side is you can always eat your horse. Can't eat an EV.

I had to shoot one once. But I never eat something I give a name to.

 

[gregus73]

I will keep buying gas or diesel as long as I can.
For now, I like the extended range and ease of filling up at the pump.

If the dealers or even aftermarket can come up with a inexpensive solution for retired batteries on battery cars and longer range that will make the switch more desirable.

My wife’s friend drove us in her Tesla Model S. I really liked it, but not enough to switch to EV.

I have my house dialed in Nevada City to run mostly on solar, have a generator, propane, and looking into getting a Tesla Powerwall to run prior to my Generac, if the power goes out. My well also uses the solar power and electric. So I am a fan of keeping utility costs low, and looking into ‘green’ solutions. So I like the idea of an EV vehicle, just has to be convenient and make sense.

 

[FCCinAZ]

I’d look to the incandescent light bulb for the example. After they were banned and leds and fluorescent weren’t quite ready for prime time, 23 cent bulbs were selling for $4 apiece. I suspect the same for ice. Look at pre 2008 diesels before all the EGR and emission crap. I own a Mache GT and while fun, I’d never be an all electric household. It’s impractical. Besides, the people on this forum are way cooler than the ones on the Mache forum.

 

[The Last Cowboy]

Too bad that this issue has to be politically polarized. EVs for most city use, gas/diesel for most rural use. That’s the best scenario for the forseeable future. This issue should be based on market forces and not elections. Nothing more or less.

And let’s be real here, no one is “saving the planet”. Most electricity is derived from hydrocarbon sources. Airline traffic and space launches put more burnt particulate matter in the high atmosphere than anything else except major volcanic eruptions. One major volcano puts more particulate matter in the stratosphere than all of the emissions since the dawn of the industrial age. Each rocket launch uses and unimaginable amount of fuel and punches a holes through every layer of the atmosphere on every launch. Commercial airlines routinely fly through the upper troposphere and military planes can fly in the lower stratosphere.

 

[2nd 392]

Too bad that this issue has to be politically polarized. EVs for most city use, gas/diesel for most rural use. That’s the best scenario for the forseeable future. This issue should be based on market forces and not elections. Nothing more or less.

And let’s be real here, no one is “saving the planet”. Most electricity is derived from hydrocarbon sources. Airline traffic and space launches put more burnt particulate matter in the high atmosphere than anything else except major volcanic eruptions. One major volcano puts more particulate matter in the stratosphere than all of the emissions since the dawn of the industrial age. Each rocket launch uses and unimaginable amount of fuel and punches a holes through every layer of the atmosphere on every launch. Commercial airlines routinely fly through the upper troposphere and military planes can fly in the lower stratosphere.

Precisely— choice of vehicle format should be determined by personal use and need with allowances for want, not by the false feel good about yourself because you’re saving the planet emotion. “ decisions made by emotion are usually wrong” And Damn Sure Not By Market Manipulations!!!! However, fuel providers are taking advantage of the manipulation also. I just got a notification from my Commercial Fueling Network provider that they are implementing an Admin/ Delivery Fee of $14.95 per invoice!!!! ( retired trucker, have had a CFN card for ~ 40 years)? Edit— just cut card into several pieces!!?

 

[INCRHULK]

Not sure if there is a safe space on this forums for people who clearly have no sense of humor…. no need to be so uptight just cause you drive a Prius ?‍

Clearly, I don't drive a Prius, and the behavior modeled in your original post is simply someone feeling the need to be a jackass.

 

[roaniecowpony]

This thread should be about current EV depreciation rather than ICE vehicle depreciation.

EVs are evolving quickly. ICE vehicles are stable. Imagine your EV bought today with a 300 mile range... then next year they (hypothetically) come out with a 600 or 1000 mile range EV. Jumps in technology/capability push the old stuff down the desirability list.

 

[jellis4148]

I think ICE depreciation is a long way away. The Electric infrastructure can't handle it. With only about 7% of vehicles being PHEV it's not that much of a difference. When you make around 40%-60% of vehicles PHEV then it's going to severely drain the system. Hell, California already has rolling black outs. Wait till everyone is charging there car. Plus, how is all this electricity going to be made? 61% of it comes from burning fossil fuels. So to help charge all those vehicles will require them to burn even more. Anyway, most people want to be able to pull up to a station and plug in the car, buy a pack of gun, a Big Gulp, and the car be fully charged. No batteries can handle that kind of juice yet, and that's a long way off, IMO.

Now lets look at the type of vehicles being produced that are PHEV. They are monstrosities for the most part. The GM Hummer EV is stupid. A 9,000 pound look at me POS. Who gives a shit about Crab walk, and all the other crap it has? Get rid of half that shit, make it normal size, drop the price to around $60,000-$70,000, give it about 300 miles more range cause all that extra junk is gone, and I'd be interested. The Silverado EV is a good looking truck. Again, a bunch of crap that will only get used once to show off, and never used again. Stupid thing is $115,000 loaded. Why??? No offense to most people, but a lot of the people I talk to that are electric is the best thing in the world are pretentious dbags with nothing better to spend there money on, and want to say they are saving the environment.

Don't get me wrong, I am all for PHEV. I'd love to see a Wrangler with a motor at all 4 wheels with serious plug ins for Overlanders, and it still had a 400-500 mile range. I'd be all for it, as long as I didn't have to wait an hour to get a full charge.


My last thing to bring up is the used market. How many of you own or buy 10 plus year old vehicles to drive? I have a 2006 Ford with 184,000 miles, and a 2008 Wrangler is 117,000 miles. What do you think a 16 year old electric truck is going to be like? It's going to be a piece of crap. Batteries will be bad, all the extra stuff they are putting on these won't work. There will not be an older used vehicle market for people like me, and so many others. They will need $8,000+ in batteries replaced. I think PHEV is a market that is being forced down our throats by the Democrats, and it's ridiculous.

I'm sure I'll catch hell over this post. It is only my opinion. If you feel different than me, I'm not going to argue with you about it. I respect that you feel different than I do, and will look at your opinions with open mind.

 

[The Last Cowboy]

A new EV with a 300 mile range will likely have a 50 mile range by the time it’s battery nears replacement. That depleted battery will still require the same amount of kilowatt hours, or even more to get those 50 miles as it did to get 300 miles new.

 

[av8or]

https://thedriven.io/2020/07/07/the...-car-sales-will-be-all-electric-in-six-years/

Not my opinion, but lots of these articles out there.

 

[Uncommon Sense]

Too bad that this issue has to be politically polarized. EVs for most city use, gas/diesel for most rural use. That’s the best scenario for the forseeable future. This issue should be based on market forces and not elections. Nothing more or less.

And let’s be real here, no one is “saving the planet”. Most electricity is derived from hydrocarbon sources. Airline traffic and space launches put more burnt particulate matter in the high atmosphere than anything else except major volcanic eruptions. One major volcano puts more particulate matter in the stratosphere than all of the emissions since the dawn of the industrial age. Each rocket launch uses and unimaginable amount of fuel and punches a holes through every layer of the atmosphere on every launch. Commercial airlines routinely fly through the upper troposphere and military planes can fly in the lower stratosphere.

Not too mention that moving cars to electric doesn't get rid of hydrocarbons as other everyday products are made with oil by products as well. The roads we drive on (asphalt) is a by product of hydrocarbons. Roofing shingles. Plastics. There will still be a need to refine and use oil.

I am a big fan of electric, but it has nothing to do with being green. Considering batteries are made from rare earth materials, the mining of which is not all that environmentally friendly, I suspect we will be in the same situation we are with oil. Instead of worrying about oil from middle east, we will be in a strategic disadvantage with the Chinese who control most of the rare earth mining.

I favor some sort of hybrid tech. I think the 4xe style is the right direction. The ability to use electric for short trips and jaunts around town, but mated to a more efficient motor when you need to go on a longer trip.

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