Did Our Bubble Burst?

[entropy]

Jeep wasn’t impacted by inflation?

I bought my Jeep in 2019 for 31.5k off the lot. MSRP was 39k. The same Jeep today will cost 45k, with discounts I could get it for what, 40k if lucky? based on my purchase price that's about a 70% increase.

But you are right though. Inflation is everywhere. Demand forecasting always has a lag, especially depending how a company creates their forecast. I would assume Jeep's forecasting model is pretty standard timeseries forecasting like most corporations.

Prices might come down or at least stop increasing in the next two years as right now the models might be working on last years patterns.

If not, then people will find ways of making more money or start to ask for raises. I know I am because this shit is out of control. Regardless, right now, Jeeps are too expensive for the majority of people.

*correction. 27% increase... still very high.

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[CT_LFC]

I bought my Jeep in 2019 for 31.5k off the lot. MSRP was 39k. The same Jeep today will cost 45k, with discounts I could get it for what, 40k if lucky? based on my purchase price that's about a 70% increase.

But you are right though. Inflation is everywhere. Demand forecasting always has a lag, especially depending how a company creates their forecast. I would assume Jeep's forecasting model is pretty standard timeseries forecasting like most corporations.

Prices might come down or at least stop increasing in the next two years as right now the models might be working on last years patterns.

If not, then people will find ways of making more money or start to ask for raises. I know I am because this shit is out of control. Regardless, right now, Jeeps are too expensive for the majority of people.

40K from 31.5K is not 70%, though, but yes, it is a high increase. Jeeps are very expensive right now, but so are basically all other cars. A middle of the pack Pilot starts in the mid 40s.

The same inflation consumers are incurring so are corporations. If we went from paying <$2/gal of fuel to >$3/gal, so did those who deliver for/to corporations. Material costs have gone through the roof....when you can even get the materials. At my company we're forecasting millions in PPV and the Sourcing function is overwhelmed trying to battle inflation. Companies can't just say "well, Lowe's is too expensive, so let me go try Home Depot or Ace Hardware", because changing parts is a big deal and changing vendors is a big, lengthy and expensive process.

I'm sure Jeep is also having to pay a lot in wage adjustments to their direct labor since they're unionized. At my company the CBA expires this fall and rumors are they're asking for 10% increase.

It's a mess everywhere for everyone. Public companies report every quarter. If they were just pocketing all these price increases you'd be seeing their margins explode, and they're not.

 

[siggy]

I bought my Jeep in 2019 for 31.5k off the lot. MSRP was 39k. The same Jeep today will cost 45k, with discounts I could get it for what, 40k if lucky? based on my purchase price that's about a 70% increase.

I’m going to go on a limb here and say math isn’t your strong suit.

 

[yokramer]

I know your comment wasn't directed at me, but didn't go with a Sahara because you cannot get a 2023 Sahara with a manual transmission. I went with a Rubicon instead.

Yea I just figure most Sport buyers that push it into the 50s are looking more for comfort rather than off-road ability.

 

[Opus]

Is there a reason you didnt go with a Sahara?

I definitely wanted a 2-door rather than a 4-door. But in hindsight, I probably should have looked harder at a Willys instead of going right to the Sport S. The price difference (once I added options some of which were standard on the Willys) wouldn't have been that much.

 

[WasMFD]

Rebates and big discounts are coming…Jeep has become a low value play. I like my Jeep but luxury pricing with mediocre quality and service is catching up with them. Anyone looking right now should hold off for six months….better deals ahead…

Rebates and big discounts are coming…Jeep has become a low value play. I like my Jeep but luxury pricing with mediocre quality and service is catching up with them. Anyone looking right now should hold off for six months….better deals ahead…

HOLD OFF for real. Stellantis has back themselves into a corner in a hope to corner the Lithium(raw material) automotive market. The real loser will be the Jeep Brand. They have decided to cut their EcoDiesel from Jeep and Ram and will ‘electrify’ their line ups of SUVs and PickUp. The All Electric Jeep is coming to a city near you and no where near a trail ever again. They will sell the brand to Tata by 2027.

 

[gato]

The Bronco happened.
(yes, I know it launched 2 years back, but only now are they actually hitting dealers in quantities, since Ford production was all messed up)

Just wait and see what the new Ranger, Ranger Raptor and new Taco will do the Gladiator.

It will soon be hard to give Gladiators away.

 

[Deleted member 59498]

Jeep is dying. I read it on the internet.

 

[aldo98229]

We are in the Okanagan, BC, for a funeral. Drove by Kelowna CDJR on the way here. There had to be 200 Wranglers, Gladiators, Grand Cherokees, Wagoneer and Rams on the lot.

The entire front row was 100 yards of all sorts of Jeeps parked side by side.

 

[yokramer]

I definitely wanted a 2-door rather than a 4-door. But in hindsight, I probably should have looked harder at a Willys instead of going right to the Sport S. The price difference (once I added options some of which were standard on the Willys) wouldn't have been that much.

Yea that 2 door argument is one I always forget. Why Jeep wont let you get 2 door in any trim is beyond me.

 

[donmontalvo]

Interest rates went up that much.

Bingo.

 

[Bandit59]

People keep talking about interest rates, etc.... that doesn't make sense. The question being posed is "other vehicles are not available on the lots and you have to order, so why are Wranglers so available right now?"

The answer, I believe, is "yes, Wrangler sales are dropping that much."

Also, some people have noted that it seems to be a LOT of 4XEs clogging up the lots. That makes me wonder how many of the 4XE orders from Jeep are customer orders vs. dealership orders. Dealerships who get tax breaks for a certain % of their lot and sales being PHEV...

I noticed that. Even on the used side lots of low mileage 4xes I did the same thing bought a4xe that had a check engine light that would not go off. So it’s back on some one’s lot with about 1000 miles on it

 

[Deleted member 59498]

We are in the Okanagan, BC, for a funeral. Drove by Kelowna CDJR on the way here. There had to be 200 Wranglers, Gladiators, Grand Cherokees, Wagoneer and Rams on the lot.

The entire front row was 100 yards of all sorts of Jeeps parked side by side.

Its the end. Oh well was a fun run.

 

[Eyeball]

We are in the Okanagan, BC, for a funeral. Drove by Kelowna CDJR on the way here. There had to be 200 Wranglers, Gladiators, Grand Cherokees, Wagoneer and Rams on the lot.

The entire front row was 100 yards of all sorts of Jeeps parked side by side.

If they have the space to display 200 vehicles that would tell me that manufacturing is back to pre-pandemic levels and manufacture bottlenecks have been mostly resolved. A full lot does not represent a glut anymore than a full bin or apples at the market is a glut. After all, they built the lot to house those 200 cars.

That does not signify anything other than a return a to normal balance of supply and demand. Dealers will no longer be able to tack on a “market adjustment “ fee, and buyers will once again be able to purchase what they want rather than what is available.

Now to those that bought a Wrangler or any other automobile outside of limited run exotics (sorry, 392s don’t fit that definition) with an eye on resale or trade in value simply made a mistake. They failed to realize that in a normally functioning market which the car market is returning to, cars and even Jeeps depreciate rather rapidly the moment they leave the lot. However,I will agree that historic at some point that depreciation levels off and values stay somewhat higher than other vehicles.

 

[aldo98229]

If they have the space to display 200 vehicles that would tell me that manufacturing is back to pre-pandemic levels and manufacture bottlenecks have been mostly resolved. A full lot does not represent a glut anymore than a full bin or apples at the market is a glut. After all, they built the lot to house those 200 cars.

That does not signify anything other than a return a to normal balance of supply and demand. Dealers will no longer be able to tack on a “market adjustment “ fee, and buyers will once again be able to purchase what they want rather than what is available.

Now to those that bought a Wrangler or any other automobile outside of limited run exotics (sorry, 392s don’t fit that definition) with an eye on resale or trade in value simply made a mistake. They failed to realize that in a normally functioning market which the car market is returning to, cars and even Jeeps depreciate rather rapidly the moment they leave the lot. However,I will agree that historic at some point that depreciation levels off and values stay somewhat higher than other vehicles.

It signals an issue when Jeep sales are DOWN 20%, Jeep dealers are bursting at the seams with inventory (120 days at last count); meanwhile Toyota, Honda and Subaru dealers have nothing left to sell.

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