The Misquito Fire is only 20 - 30 miles from the trailhead right now. There is a pall of smoke over the whole Tahoe area. Sunday's Tour de Tahoe cycling event was cancelled - 2nd year in-a-row - due to dangerously poor air quality.
Those wildfires can move very fast if they get a wind behind them. Not a trail you want to be on right now.
Reopening is going to depend on containment of the fire - but I wouldn't hold my breath for next week at this point It's 0% contained and they are forcasting increasing overnight winds - really bad news.
The current forest closures run close to the lake along the northern boundry of the Desolation Wilderness.
I live 30 miles northeast of the Mosquito fire. I woke up this morning to a strong smoky smell inside my house. The outdoor air quality index was 595 on a scale of 0 to 500. (I know that doesn’t make sense, but that’s what it was.) Anything above 300 is considered hazardous to your health.
The prevailing winds during the day are pushing smoke from the fire over the Rubicon trail and then on to Lake Tahoe and the Reno area. While there may be a short break in the wind flows at night, this fire is already big and will likely get a lot bigger if/when the winds pick up.
Best case scenario would be that the weather stays calm for the next 3-5 weeks and the fire gets under control. I think it’s more likely that the fire gets under control once we get our next rainstorms, which often occur in October or November. Of course, these often include snow at higher elevations that would close the trail as well.