Semiconductor Chips

[Sgt Beavis]

It's anybodies guess when this BS will end. I do know there is a HUGE backlog of pre built vehicles waiting for said chips. They will be first in line when the chips are available creating more waiting.

It takes roughly 6 months to make a chip from start to finish. You'll start to see supplies strengthen from then on but there is also a big backlog of vehicles that were built without chips. There is also a huge pent up demand that is driving the shortage. So I think the reality of it is that we won't see things starting to correct until next month.

I was taught supply/demand in school.
Why is no one in America making chips?

We have multiple chip manufacturers in the US. The auto makers don't use most of them. Intel is building two new chip plants in Arizona as I write this. Pat Gelisinger (Intel CEO) has said they can start bringing chips for the auto industry to market by the end of this year. I don't know if any contracts have been signed for that or if Pat was just stating they could take up the slack if contracts were signed.

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[Themistocles]

It takes roughly 6 months to make a chip from start to finish. You'll start to see supplies strengthen from then on but there is also a big backlog of vehicles that were built without chips. There is also a huge pent up demand that is driving the shortage. So I think the reality of it is that we won't see things starting to correct until next month.




We have multiple chip manufacturers in the US. The auto makers don't use most of them. Intel is building two new chip plants in Arizona as I write this. Pat Gelisinger (Intel CEO) has said they can start bringing chips for the auto industry to market by the end of this year. I don't know if any contracts have been signed for that or if Pat was just stating they could take up the slack if contracts were signed.

I know TSMC is saying they will be caught up with the auto-industry by next month, but every piece of analysis I have read says that is probably a substantially overly optimistic perspective...with most estimates pushing out to the end of the this year or even well into or through 2022.

When you say not starting to correct until the June, do you mean continuing to worsen until then and then slowly taking the next few months to try to dig out and catch up, or do you mean you think next month we will start to see a substantial return to normal? ... If the later, what is driving your optimism?

 

[Sgt Beavis]

I know TSMC is saying they will be caught up with the auto-industry by next month, but every piece of analysis I have read says that is probably a substantially overly optimistic perspective...with most estimates pushing out to the end of the this year or even well into or through 2022.

When you say not starting to correct until the June, do you mean continuing to worsen until then and then slowly taking the next few months to try to dig out and catch up, or do you mean you think next month we will start to see a substantial return to normal? ... If the later, what is driving your optimism?

Well, for one. This was reported today....
https://wccftech.com/tsmc-restricts...ses-it-to-lose-nt389-billion-in-market-value/

Most of their fab capacity is in Taiwan. Last I heard, they hadn't brought their Arizona plant online yet. Also, I read that TSMC is 28% of total chip capacity. That's the biggest but there are still a lot of other manufacturers out there that are still ramping back up. Again it takes ~6months (give or take depending on the facility) to make a chip. If TSMC (or anyone else) reduces production capacity by, let's hypothetically say 50%, then it will take 6 months for that 50% lost capacity to wind back up and start delivering chips. It could be even longer than that if a line or entire fab was shut down.

 

[Themistocles]

Well, for one. This was reported today....
https://wccftech.com/tsmc-restricts...ses-it-to-lose-nt389-billion-in-market-value/

Most of their fab capacity is in Taiwan. Last I heard, they hadn't brought their Arizona plant online yet. Also, I read that TSMC is 28% of total chip capacity. That's the biggest but there are still a lot of other manufacturers out there that are still ramping back up. Again it takes ~6months (give or take depending on the facility) to make a chip. If TSMC (or anyone else) reduces production capacity by, let's hypothetically say 50%, then it will take 6 months for that 50% lost capacity to wind back up and start delivering chips. It could be even longer than that if a line or entire fab was shut down.

I hadn't seen that one, thanks. However, it still reads to me like this going to be a process and the auto industry probably has the rest of the year to struggle with chips.

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