Would you order a new Jeep Now?

[SurfingJeep]

MSRP off the lot is a good deal these days!

It is. I'm seeing Wranglers marked up by $3K to $6K in my general area.

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[Yogi]

I think you are better off just ordering one now rather than waiting.
The chip shortage will not end any time soon for the automotive sector.

A large part of the problem, in addition to the global supply chain issues is the fact that automotive chips are based on crazy old fab processes. like 90nM process old. These chips were not even advanced when the first iPhone came out.
During the first part of the pandemic, auto orders were down sharply, thereby cutting fab orders by the same amount.
Concurrently, consumer chip sales exploded as people on lock down started buying new PCs and stuff.
The fabs which used to make chips for the auto sector shifted capacity to newer fab processes to meet that demand.
Now that car sales are going up, there are few fabs willing to shift production to the old fab lines since there is simply no profit in it.
They are telling the auto motive sector to redesign their shit and step into the modern era.
The company I work for has seen a huge increase in demand for automotive OEMS trying to certify new components with new chip designs. These global homologations take a long time. Like 1 year to complete.

As a side note, unless the governments of the world drop the covid movement restrictions for supply chain transportation, I fear we are in for a global shit storm in the very near future. Shipping crews, truck drivers, dock workers and so on are leaving in droves. When you look at these guys stuck for weeks at sea waiting for a birth or stuck along highways waiting to clear customers for days, it's no wonder.
No workers means not only no new Jeep, it means no food.

1,000% correct on that entire oration, especially the chip part as that is exactly what is happening. The automotive sector gave up their line time, and it was quickly purchased by the PC Parts industry, now there is very little, to no line time available for the automotive sector.

Add to that a report I just read this morning vis-a-vis logistics. The North American sea ports are 45 to 60 days behind in unloading ships with the ports of LA and Long Beach being hit the worst as they are a full 60 days behind with new ships arriving every day.
Furthermore, the land transportation sector is heading into the Christmas Peak season. Current load count to truck ratios are 6:1 across the nation, and depending on the port in question, between 10:1 and 20:1 in the ports themselves, and again Long Beach is hit the worst at 20:1.
Over and above all of that is the container shortage. China is paying ocean carriers a premium to move empty containers from ports all over the world to China to be refilled and reshipped. The premium is enough that rail and ocean carriers are leaving contract freight at the seaports and rail ports and shipping the empties instead.
Meanwhile, South Korea is building new containers and container ships as fast as they can, and even at that, they will not be able to meet today's demand for another two years. Malaysian and Taiwanese chip makers are giving the same time line as they build factory additions and add lines to expand chip production.
Herein lies a classic paradox as well; microchip makers need microchips to make the robots that make the microchips ... there's no other way the microchips can be made.
It would not be surprising at all if some manufacturing segments, world wide, had to halt production completely for an extended period of time, which, if it happens, is likely to send the world economy into a death spiral. If the U.S. government does not authorize an increase in it's debt limit, as the U.S. Greenback is the world's defacto standard currency i.e. the one by which all others are judged, that economic death spiral is all but assured.

 

[Spearmin]

Would you order a new Jeep knowing that there are shortages on computer chips, software, wiring and so on? I'm hesitant in ordering a new jeep because I don't want the jeep to be made with left over parts due to shortages.

Damn... never though of it like that...

 

[PyrPatriot]

Would you order a new Jeep knowing that there are shortages on computer chips, software, wiring and so on? I'm hesitant in ordering a new jeep because I don't want the jeep to be made with left over parts due to shortages.

Needs a Poll.

Would not due to all the problems from over-stressed/worked assembly folks. Quality control suffers at all stages from: workplace restrictions due to the flu, loss of workers from interruption in workload, and availability/pressure for parts.

 

[kermitjewel]

i'm sitting at just under 17k miles of smiles in my gorgeous mojito JLUR 2019, yet i find myself fooling around with the build tool. and often i make a willys soft top 2 dr, wonder why...

 

[m3reno]

Lol, what?

When Tesla had shortages with chips, they installed secondary older units that would be changed out when supplies get replenished.

 

[Luxy60]

Due to critical part shortages across all industries, OEM's are scrambling to add suppliers to their approved supplier lists in an effort to keep production moving forward. A risk is that these companies only do a cursory qualification of the new supplier/ parts, a so called paper qual. vs. the extensive empirical testing they would normally perform. How those new parts will fair in the long run is a question, i.e. functional/ performance issues, long term reliability, etc.

 

[Kurlon]

When Tesla had shortages with chips, they installed secondary older units that would be changed out when supplies get replenished.

Tesla is a special kind of dumb when it comes to crap they pull with their production. I wouldn't use them as an example of what any other mfg might do.

 

[pablo_max3045]

1,000% correct on that entire oration, especially the chip part as that is exactly what is happening. The automotive sector gave up their line time, and it was quickly purchased by the PC Parts industry, now there is very little, to no line time available for the automotive sector.

Add to that a report I just read this morning vis-a-vis logistics. The North American sea ports are 45 to 60 days behind in unloading ships with the ports of LA and Long Beach being hit the worst as they are a full 60 days behind with new ships arriving every day.
Furthermore, the land transportation sector is heading into the Christmas Peak season. Current load count to truck ratios are 6:1 across the nation, and depending on the port in question, between 10:1 and 20:1 in the ports themselves, and again Long Beach is hit the worst at 20:1.
Over and above all of that is the container shortage. China is paying ocean carriers a premium to move empty containers from ports all over the world to China to be refilled and reshipped. The premium is enough that rail and ocean carriers are leaving contract freight at the seaports and rail ports and shipping the empties instead.
Meanwhile, South Korea is building new containers and container ships as fast as they can, and even at that, they will not be able to meet today's demand for another two years. Malaysian and Taiwanese chip makers are giving the same time line as they build factory additions and add lines to expand chip production.
Herein lies a classic paradox as well; microchip makers need microchips to make the robots that make the microchips ... there's no other way the microchips can be made.
It would not be surprising at all if some manufacturing segments, world wide, had to halt production completely for an extended period of time, which, if it happens, is likely to send the world economy into a death spiral. If the U.S. government does not authorize an increase in it's debt limit, as the U.S. Greenback is the world's defacto standard currency i.e. the one by which all others are judged, that economic death spiral is all but assured.

Totally agree. I think most folks really have zero clue what it takes to put food on their tables or clothes on their backs. Even "made in America" requires a well functioning global logistics network. Even if somehow, 100% of every component was from the US, you still need to put it into a shipping container.... which as you noted, there are none at the moment.
BTW, you can also point to the several 1000% increase in companies selling and marketing shipping container "stuff" like tiny homes, swimming pools, home offices and so on. The perfect shit storm all coming together.

I am also expecting a massive devaluation in most areas in the next couple of months. (Stocks, precious metals and crypto) Especially considering the dept ratio for nearly all the major economies.
On the plus side, if you have liquidity, there will be options to make a ridiculous amount of money if you can buy into the crash. There has never been a crash that did not bounce back and this one will be the same.

 

[pablo_max3045]

I am also expecting a massive devaluation in most areas in the next couple of months. (Stocks, precious metals and crypto) Especially considering the dept ratio for nearly all the major economies.
On the plus side, if you have liquidity, there will be options to make a ridiculous amount of money if you can buy into the crash. There has never been a crash that did not bounce back and this one will be the same.

Having said that.. Back to the OPs question.
IF you have the money to buy the Jeep, thinking about it more, I would wait a few months.
If the market crashes, which it looks like it will, then you are way better off buying a shit load of "discount stocks", or discount gold. Then wait a half a year or a year until they come back up. Then just use the gains to pay for the Jeep and get a free Jeep.
If you cannot afford to buy a Jeep outright, you way consider waiting a few months anyhow if there a chance you will be poorly positioned economically speaking by a large market crash. i.e, 401k, Job security and so on.

 

[pablo_max3045]

Tesla is a special kind of dumb when it comes to crap they pull with their production. I wouldn't use them as an example of what any other mfg might do.

Just out of curiosity, what makes you say that?
I am no fanboy of Tesla, but they have definitely changes the game for auto manufacturing, despite several missteps. Several other makes are trying to replicate what Tesla is doing. Check out some of Sandy Munros (Not sure of the spelling) youtube videos. He tears down several EVs to look at production methods, cost saving and so on. Telsa appears to be light years ahead of the "old guard". Especailly with the so called mega castings. I got to see their mega factory in Shanghai... pretty damned impressive compared to the BMW plant in Germany.

 

[Yogi]

Just out of curiosity, what makes you say that?
I am no fanboy of Tesla, but they have definitely changes the game for auto manufacturing, despite several missteps. Several other makes are trying to replicate what Tesla is doing. Check out some of Sandy Munros (Not sure of the spelling) youtube videos. He tears down several EVs to look at production methods, cost saving and so on. Telsa appears to be light years ahead of the "old guard". Especailly with the so called mega castings. I got to see their mega factory in Shanghai... pretty damned impressive compared to the BMW plant in Germany.

I have a friend that builds robots ... the kind that populate production lines. He was part of the team that installed the Tesla production line in Cali. He stated it is head and shoulders above what any other car manufacturer is doing. Claims there is some pretty cutting-edge stuff there.
It sounds you are liquidating some assets in preparation for the opportunity to buy cheap stocks. Like you, I'm doing the same, but I would disagree with dumping precious metals now in the hopes of buying them back at a much cheaper rate later on. I think precious metals will drop in price, but not enough to warrant a sell now. Personally, I just don't think the ROI will be there.
Maybe some Berkshire Hathaway A will drop back below 100K ... LOL, But seriously, there are going to be some wafflers that are going to come up cheap when the market tanks, and rocket to stardom once the market returns. Could be we're in for the economic version of Mr. Toad's Wild Ride ... LOL

 

[pablo_max3045]

I have a friend that builds robots ... the kind that populate production lines. He was part of the team that installed the Tesla production line in Cali. He stated it is head and shoulders above what any other car manufacturer is doing. Claims there is some pretty cutting-edge stuff there.
It sounds you are liquidating some assets in preparation for the opportunity to buy cheap stocks. Like you, I'm doing the same, but I would disagree with dumping precious metals now in the hopes of buying them back at a much cheaper rate later on. I think precious metals will drop in price, but not enough to warrant a sell now. Personally, I just don't think the ROI will be there.
Maybe some Berkshire Hathaway A will drop back below 100K ... LOL, But seriously, there are going to be some wafflers that are going to come up cheap when the market tanks, and rocket to stardom once the market returns. Could be we're in for the economic version of Mr. Toad's Wild Ride ... LOL

Hard to say with metals. I am actually not selling anything at the moment. We were lucky enough lately that we have enough liquidity to buy if it crashes while keeping what we've got now. Eventually, everything will rebound to a higher price that what we have now.
Well, until space mining becomes a thing and they grab one of those giant gold asteroids. I suspect I don't need to worry about that in my lifetime.

 

[ChuckMalone]

yes criswell in maryland is offering 7% below invoice until sept 31

This is where I ordered mine last month! Got a great deal.

 

[jmccorm]

I would order a new Wrangler instantly for wireless Android Auto/CarPlay. Frankly, I feel like with how poorly Android Auto functions with a wired connection on virtually every type of car it should be a free upgrade to any Jeep. The second they add that feature, I'm in and will buy an electric. It's bonkers that they launched that without it.

Too bad you're not an Apple kind of guy. A $115 wireless adapter on Amazon is all that stands in the way of your new vehicle.

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