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Trade In Value Plummet of Death

rickinAZ

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Used car prices are like the stock market: people are thrilled when they go up irrationally, and bewildered when they correct themselves. We happen to be in the middle of both corrections - healthy, and totally predictable.
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CT_LFC

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I'm in SE Wisconsin. The market is weird around here. There are a lot of dealers with 25% full or less lots, and many people around here wont travel more than 15 miles from their house... they certainly won't go down to Chicago to look for a better deal. I totally get that the bubble is bursting, but the Midwest is also usually the most stable place.... very slow to react.
That makes sense, though. Not worth putting your life at risk over a Jeep.
 

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Not really relevant but seen a local and new Rubicon 4xe.... 75k! šŸ˜³

When did they get so expensive! I didn't bother with looking at options was just like wow.
 

Hootbro

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We have had almost two years of people kiting their late model vehicles for close to 100% or sticker and/or purchased value. Those days are over.
 

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Jmonroe

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You're trying to compare retail to wholesale. Carvana would be paying you wholesale so they can sell it at retail to make a profit. None of these car or home buying services are giving you retail, their business would instantly collapse.
 

MayThe4x4BWU

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I'm kicking myself a bit on my trade. My dealer was willing to take my 2019 Jeep GC SRT back in August for $65000 and said it might be more around $63000 later depending on the ever adjusting market, but that would've left me without a vehicle til my order arrived, so I ended up waiting.

And that's exactly what happened, so I lost $2k by the time my order arrived, but figure if I ended up having to rent, Uber, etc. for a month (or longer) I'd probably have spent close to that on them, so I look at it as breaking even for the most part.

In any case, I definitely made money on it to put towards the JL and also pocket a chunk for parts on it šŸ˜†
 

SargeDiesel

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So a 2023 Jeep Rubicon 2 Door with the exact same options as mine is $63215 on Jeepā€™s website. Mine is a 2022 with 1100 miles. Carvana offer was $44525. What the hell happened?! šŸ˜‚
Key word "Carvana".... they will super low ball you everytime... believe me when they go to resale your 2022... it will be listed for $60+..... they offered me about $10k less on the last vehicle I sold . All about their profit.....
 

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So a 2023 Jeep Rubicon 2 Door with the exact same options as mine is $63215 on Jeepā€™s website. Mine is a 2022 with 1100 miles. Carvana offer was $44525. What the hell happened?! šŸ˜‚
100% depends on your area. I am in SWFL and we need pre-owned cars insanely bad right now so we would easily beat that quote.
 

willcasp

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The market is correcting itself.
We have had two years of a screwed up supply chain. Used cars at auction (where your trade in price comes from) were higher than MSRP on the non existent new model cars.
Accordingly, dealers were offering stupidly high prices to buy people's used cars, and then selling them for even stupider higher prices to people desperate to purchase them, as there is no vehicle inventory out there.
Dealers don't actually pay for cars, they borrow money to buy them. This is called "floor plan"
New cars are becoming available, which is correcting the inventory problem.
Used car auction prices are plummeting. Down 11-15% in the last few months, depending on who's numbers you want to read. The number of cars that are taken to auction, and not selling is going up as well.
Dealers are slow to react with dropping prices.. especially on cars they over paid for.
You are seeing trade in prices drop, as reflected by auction prices.
Used car prices will drop as dealers will need to blow out inventory, and pay off those floor plans.
This will be a mess. Cash is king. I expect to see great deals in six months.
 

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willcasp

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The only real flaw with this argument is that China doesn't control the supply of chips, most come from Taiwan.
A significant number (all of the big ones) of Taiwanese chip companies and board makers do their manufacturing in China.
 

Koolkarguy

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Yes I understand it is a model year newer and I also understand mine is ā€œusedā€ (actually in better condition than some new JLs Iā€™ve seen on the lot). I also understand that a 2023 driven off the lot will not plummet $20K on paper. I just thought it was odd that Jeep didnā€™t change anything on the 2023 model and a Jeep with 1000 miles is worth $20K less than a new Jeep. Thatā€™s $20 lost per mile driven. Iā€™ve never owned a vehicle that devalued so fast.
I think the dealers in your area must be slow prices still high in Denver and nobody in this area is "saturated" with used cars were3all still trying to get inventory. Good luck
 

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FYI my 2021 4Runner TRD Off Road Premium has 10,000 miles on it - it is worth 3K more than the 42K I paid - and this car will run circles around any Rubicon I've ever seen. That being said I love my Willys 2 door!!!!!!
 

rikity

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I put my helmet on so I could surive the dealer bashing. :like:

What we've been seeing the last 3 months is a sharp increase in rates. Most people buy with a loan, many in the area that i'm in do buy with cash. Carvana if you havent been following it was buying cars for over retail bluebook for the last 2 years. They've amassed I believe in the billions in losses, so their business plan isnt working. I even sold a couple of cars to them myself to get out of em quick and easy. I'd never buy from them though.

The bids on used have taken a plunge, especially in the last 2 months. The only thing really holding water right now is Ford Super Duty pickups and any DRW truck. The rest are becoming a lot easier to find. I have a friend that needed a late model Expedition and for the first time in 2 years I jumped on the auction and bought the perfect one for $5k less than wholesale bluebook. Wholesale bluebook is essentially "trade value" for those using the kbb online values. So on the used side we are seeing things go back to where they were pre-covid. Jeep has been jacking up their prices for the last 2 years drastically, plus they made that boat anchor Grand Wagonneer thats not selling all that well in the $100k+ range.

New inventory isnt great, late model low miles used isnt super great but they are sort of improving. We dont have a ton on the lot right now in the way of new, but from what it looks like is buyers are being shut off by either interest rates or economy. At least its not to the level housing is.

Dealers are getting cold feet because the market is turning down. Book values are taking a plunge too, you gotta have buyers to push values up. If you have a late model used, see if you can consign it somewhere, or even at the dealer you want to buy the new from. You could also sell it yourself too, if there are a lot of decent mods on it, you get better value from them if there is someone looking for a built Jeep
 

rikity

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You're trying to compare retail to wholesale. Carvana would be paying you wholesale so they can sell it at retail to make a profit. None of these car or home buying services are giving you retail, their business would instantly collapse.
Carvanas business model was buy at retail and sell at retail, then sell the loan off. If that doesnt make any sense to you, then you are right. It didnt work, now they arent buying retail anymore.
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