Stellantis offering buyouts to many salaried Jeep employees

[Cycle11111]

I feel like i've posted this same thing more than 10 times on this site but perhaps it's just different members reading it each time:

The EV push is going to hit a brick wall in the 5-8 year timeframe. There are so many hurdles, which at this time and in the near future (within the next 10-15 years) are insurmountable. The grid is a massive one, and that's a 30-year project, minimum. Resources to build enough batteries is another. The COST of batteries is also a problem. Then there's the recycling of batteries which right now pretty much doesn't exist. None of these technologies are advancing fast enough to get to the point where we need to be for any major automaker to have an all-EV lineup by 2035...at least if they want to remain profitable, that is. Earliest we are getting to a 50% EV country is 2050. No one reading this now will see ICE go away in their lifetime.

Seems like the popular rationalizer in this thread is "off peak charging". First problem with that is that "off-peak" is a concept that only exists in certain regions. Up here in the NE we don't have such a thing because of our wide range of possible weather. For instance, in the cold months, nighttime grid load is actually HIGHER...so that's a deal-breaker right there. But even for more temperate climates, "off-peak" is not a solution because you don't have enough "off-peak" time to charge two vehicles (many locales don't even have enough time to charge 1). Furthermore, regardless of where you are in the country, you have at best a 200A residential feed. That's enough for ONE level 2 charger. If you are willing to sleep in the dark with no AC or heat you can probably squeeze two in there (obviously this is assuming they are charging "off-peak" or what we in the NE call "overnight") but I doubt anyone who has the cash for a BEV is going to be willing to rough it like that on the regular. That doesn't even address those who are saddled with a 100A feed and can't even use level 2 chargers...so they'll be waiting 2+ days for their EVs to charge, one at a time. Incidentally, those also tend to be the lower-income folks who live and die by reliable personal transportation.

See? There are just too many major hurdles that have not even begun to be addressed...also note that none of these issues are being discussed at a level that's being picked up by the talking heads. Most of you have probably never heard of any of this stuff but you certainly have heard all the news about how California is going to be banning ICE vehicles and putting huge taxes on ICE vehicles...and how several major automakers plan to have all-EV lineups in 5-10 years. I think we can pretty easily see why that is.

Well I can point out what you say wrt off-peak is not true. We have a 200A service and have charged two EVs offpeak for mulipless years. I have energy monitoring and my usage drops significantly after 10pm. On level 2 I have never had any issues getting 2 EVs charged with charging starting after 10pm. Also your point on only 100A service is valid - one EV would be fine but 2 is unlikely to be able have simultaneous fill 40-50A level 2 charging - however the new wall connectors can talk with each other and they will divide the load so that the sum of each does not exceed a specific amp load - so 2 could draw 20A each and then when one is fully charged the second can take the full 40A.

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[TheRaven]

Well I can point out what you say wrt off-peak is not true. We have a 200A service and have charged two EVs offpeak for mulipless years. I have energy monitoring and my usage drops significantly after 10pm. On level 2 I have never had any issues getting 2 EVs charged with charging starting after 10pm. Also your point on only 100A service is valid - one EV would be fine but 2 is unlikely to be able have simultaneous fill 40-50A level 2 charging - however the new wall connectors can talk with each other and they will divide the load so that the sum of each does not exceed a specific amp load - so 2 could draw 20A each and then when one is fully charged the second can take the full 40A.

Level 2 chargers, outputting level 2 power (they can downvolt as you noted) draw 40-50A each. A 200A service is derated for 160A (the 80% rule) so that's your ceiling. Doing the math - average nominal amperage draw for a 2200sqft house is 30-40A (that's all your general use stuff like lighting, and whatever's plugged into outlets). Let's split the difference on the chargers and say they're drawing 90A total, so on the low end you're at 120A. AC will draw 40-60A (generally the higher at startup and the lower after it's been running for a couple minutes), and the dryer 30-40A, the microwave somewhere around 10A. See how close you are to problems? You may have a newer house like mine that's much more energy efficient and has more headroom - but the vast majority do not. You can't assume that just because you can do it that everyone else can too.

100A feeds have the same problem, but with one level 2 charger. They max out at 80A and thus one level 2 charger uses HALF THE AVAILABLE AMPERAGE. Just having the refrigerator running means no AC for them...or massively extended charge times due to their charger downvoting constantly.

You also fail to note that when the chargers downvolt, they greatly increase charge time. So on hot summer nights your charging time is greatly extended. This is the kind of stuff I was speaking to when I spoke about infrastructure not being ready.

 

[Cycle11111]

Level 2 chargers, outputting level 2 power (they can downvolt as you noted) draw 40-50A each. A 200A service is derated for 160A (the 80% rule) so that's your ceiling. Doing the math - average nominal amperage draw for a 2200sqft house is 30-40A (that's all your general use stuff like lighting, and whatever's plugged into outlets). Let's split the difference on the chargers and say they're drawing 90A total, so on the low end you're at 120A. AC will draw 40-60A (generally the higher at startup and the lower after it's been running for a couple minutes), and the dryer 30-40A, the microwave somewhere around 10A. See how close you are to problems? You may have a newer house like mine that's much more energy efficient and has more headroom - but the vast majority do not. You can't assume that just because you can do it that everyone else can too.

100A feeds have the same problem, but with one level 2 charger. They max out at 80A and thus one level 2 charger uses HALF THE AVAILABLE AMPERAGE. Just having the refrigerator running means no AC for them...or massively extended charge times due to their charger downvoting constantly.

You also fail to note that when the chargers downvote, they greatly increase charge time. So on hot summer nights your charging time is greatly extended. This is the kind of stuff I was speaking too when I spoke about infrastructure not being ready.

The infrastructure is way more ready than you allude to. For one 100% 2 EV chargers on a 100A panel is not going to work but on a 200A panel it works fine. Now I do agree that with AC in the equation it is harder and perhaps that moves you down to one 40A or two operating at 20A. All chargers can be set for a specific draw and many can be configured over WiFi and likewise you can adjust the current draw from the car and the apps many have. My daughter lives in Texas and has an EV (and yes the house has AC) and has had zero issues with charging on her level 2 charger daily for over two years. Most and I would say nearly all of us do not drive in the middle of the night and for nominal commuting folks typical drive less than 100miles per day and to fully charge a Tesla Model Y back up it then takes about 2-3 hours (that would be 4hours at 40A) - we have a Model Y and I can attest that is accurate as we see it multiple times per week. If your drive around a number of cities right now the number of EVs has exploded and the grid is not coming down - a real issue though is charge points for those in multiple tenant buildings.

 

[TheRaven]

If your drive around a number of cities right now the number of EVs has exploded and the grid is not coming down...

Just a little statistic to illustrate for you the scale we are talking about here - there are currently 1.4M EVs on the road in the US. That includes all years, essentially every EV still on the road in the US. Each year in the US about 17M vehicles are sold. THAT'S ONE YEAR. The number of EVs is a drop in the bucket compared against the whole spectrum of automobiles.

The grid should be ok until at least the 50% mark. However, individual families are going to start to have issues when they try to maintain 2 EVs...and the poorer folks saddled with older houses and smaller electrical services are going to have issues just keeping 1.

 

[Cycle11111]

Just a little statistic to illustrate for you the scale we are talking about here - there are currently 1.4M EVs on the road in the US. That includes all years, essentially every EV still on the road in the US. Each year in the US about 17M vehicles are sold. THAT'S ONE YEAR. The number of EVs is a drop in the bucket compared against the whole spectrum of automobiles.

The grid should be ok until at least the 50% mark. However, individual families are going to start to have issues when they try to maintain 2 EVs...and the poorer folks saddled with older houses and smaller electrical services are going to have issues just keeping 1.

As I have said older houses and 2 level 2 chargers is likely a challenge - agree. However, your numbers of EVs nationally is a correct ratio but many individual cities are far above that percentage of EVs to ICE cars

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