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- Jul 7, 2022
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- 2023 JLR, 2021 JTR. 20 F 450 KR,
- Consulting CTO (retired
I think you are being optimistic. Its NOT a wall they are going to hit, its a FUNNEL. The MOUTH of the funnel is far larger than the entrance is and what we have is not enough $$$, to do it all at one time along with timelines that have very little flexibility, like the GRID, manufacturing to replace 285 MILLION registered cars in America with EV.I feel like i've posted this same thing more than 10 times on this site but perhaps it's just different members reading it each time:
The EV push is going to hit a brick wall in the 5-8 year timeframe. There are so many hurdles, which at this time and in the near future (within the next 10-15 years) are insurmountable. The grid is a massive one, and that's a 30-year project, minimum. Resources to build enough batteries is another. The COST of batteries is also a problem. Then there's the recycling of batteries which right now pretty much doesn't exist. None of these technologies are advancing fast enough to get to the point where we need to be for any major automaker to have an all-EV lineup by 2035...at least if they want to remain profitable, that is. Earliest we are getting to a 50% EV country is 2050. No one reading this now will see ICE go away in their lifetime.
Seems like the popular rationalizer in this thread is "off peak charging". First problem with that is that "off-peak" is a concept that only exists in certain regions. Up here in the NE we don't have such a thing because of our wide range of possible weather. For instance, in the cold months, nighttime grid load is actually HIGHER...so that's a deal-breaker right there. But even for more temperate climates, "off-peak" is not a solution because you don't have enough "off-peak" time to charge two vehicles (many locales don't even have enough time to charge 1). Furthermore, regardless of where you are in the country, you have at best a 200A residential feed. That's enough for ONE level 2 charger. If you are willing to sleep in the dark with no AC or heat you can probably squeeze two in there (obviously this is assuming they are charging "off-peak" or what we in the NE call "overnight") but I doubt anyone who has the cash for a BEV is going to be willing to rough it like that on the regular. That doesn't even address those who are saddled with a 100A feed and can't even use level 2 chargers...so they'll be waiting 2+ days for their EVs to charge, one at a time. Incidentally, those also tend to be the lower-income folks who live and die by reliable personal transportation.
See? There are just too many major hurdles that have not even begun to be addressed...also note that none of these issues are being discussed at a level that's being picked up by the talking heads. Most of you have probably never heard of any of this stuff but you certainly have heard all the news about how California is going to be banning ICE vehicles and putting huge taxes on ICE vehicles...and how several major automakers plan to have all-EV lineups in 5-10 years. I think we can pretty easily see why that is.
Let's look at some of the players running to the finish line in 2035:
Civilian use and replacement of 285 Million Petrol with EV
US Federal GOVT
50 State, City, County and State GOVT replacement
US military from tanks to cars
Total registered cars and govt vehicles??? as much as 300 Million
1-3 TRILLION $$$$$ to upgrade the GRID from power plant to 'last mile' (home office etc) + time to do it across the US 25-35 years
What to do with 300 million units of vehicles, city dump???
The American people privately own 285 Million vehicles, where do they get the $$$ to replace the ICE if ICE has little or no value and there is no dealer that wants it? The average cost of a EV today is about $60k
Manufacturing requirement to produce and build 300 million units + replacement for worn-out and wrecked units
Then this: Who is paying the motor companies to make this massive conversion from ICE to EV. What backroom deal was cut? Motor companies do NOT have the cash to completely RETOOL...Tax incentives mean YOU and ME are paying for it. Tax incentives paid for by Taxpayers only go to those who can afford to buy the EV to begin with.
The Goal line is 2035, 23 years from now, and from here the funnel opening is HUGE, but it narrows down to a very small opening restrained by $$$$$, time, and manufacturing capacity just to name a few. The GOVT is trying to force 10 lbs of sugar into a 5 lb sack!!!!
The switch to EV will collapse the US economy and while we are paying for phony climate BS nothing will change climate-wise. Electric has to be generated to meet this new demand so how will that be accomplished??? More Nuke power plants? OR more natural gas, coal power plants. Solar and wind are only supplements. If you do not want to live in a country that has constant electric blackouts you must have a stable grid and wind/solar is not the answer at least not in the foreseeable future...