Sell my Willys for a Rubicon???

csjlu

Well-Known Member
Joined
Feb 17, 2021
Messages
246
Reaction score
646
Location
Parts Unknown
Vehicle(s)
2021 JLU
The price of lumber has fallen over 40% in one month, after spiking 350% in early 2021. Supply is catching up with demand, and consumer spending is shifting aways from goods and towards services. Although cars are different than lumber, they share many of the same many of the same supply chain headwinds - poor supply side capacity planning, underinvestment in inventories, trade tariffs, etc.

Below is the Manheim used car index through May. The YTD move is likely unsustainable, and risks being short term in nature. I see lots of people posting about selling to Vroom or Carava, but not many people actually doing it. If the window of opportunity closes (spoiler alert: it will) don't say you were not warned.

1623792213974.png





Advertisement

 
Last edited:

Oldbear

Well-Known Member
First Name
Dwayne
Joined
Sep 1, 2020
Messages
462
Reaction score
498
Location
Bowling Green, Ky
Vehicle(s)
16 Ram 1500 Ecodiesel; 20 JL Sport S 2 door
The price of lumber has fallen fallen over 40% in one month, after spiking 350% in early 2021. Supply is catching up with demand, and consumer spending is shifting aways from goods and towards services. Although cars are different than lumber, they share many of the same many of the same supply chain headwinds - poor supply side capacity planning, underinvestment in inventories, trade tariffs, etc.

Below is the Manheim used car index through May. The YTD move is likely unsustainable, and risks being short term in nature. I see lots of people posting about selling to Vroom or Carava, but not many people actually doing it. If the window of opportunity closes (spoiler alert: it will) don't say you were not warned.

1623792213974.png
Fully agree this is not/can not be sustainable. Either (1)some sense of normality will return in the next year or so, Or (2) the whole economy is going to tank. I’m betting on (1), but wouldn’t want to bet against (2). I believe at this juncture a wise man would hunker down until things resolve themselves one way or the other. YMMV
 

CT_LFC

Well-Known Member
First Name
Ed
Joined
Apr 22, 2019
Messages
474
Reaction score
611
Location
CT
Vehicle(s)
E46 ZHP / WK2 / JLUR
The price of lumber has fallen fallen over 40% in one month, after spiking 350% in early 2021. Supply is catching up with demand, and consumer spending is shifting aways from goods and towards services. Although cars are different than lumber, they share many of the same many of the same supply chain headwinds - poor supply side capacity planning, underinvestment in inventories, trade tariffs, etc.

Below is the Manheim used car index through May. The YTD move is likely unsustainable, and risks being short term in nature. I see lots of people posting about selling to Vroom or Carava, but not many people actually doing it. If the window of opportunity closes (spoiler alert: it will) don't say you were not warned.

1623792213974.png
happy to see the decrease in lumber. Would be good to get more new housing built and help with the supply.

As someone who is trying to upsize in housing it had been demoralizing seeing the prices go up and up and on top of that know that there are still bidding wars on top of that.
Inventory is so scarce that we have actually identified a few houses we like and sent them letters to see if they’re interested in selling and offering our current house for rent so they can take their time finding a new home or waiting out the market.
 

csjlu

Well-Known Member
Joined
Feb 17, 2021
Messages
246
Reaction score
646
Location
Parts Unknown
Vehicle(s)
2021 JLU
Trying to find the relevance of this sentence. So if someone paid cash for their Jeep your neighbors will care what they think?
Pretty straightforward...with a few exceptions the guys in my hood tend to drive Sports and Saharas, are happy as can be with them, find them more than capable for their needs, and do not suffer from the envy that other posters, many who whom advocate financing Rubicons, implied they would suffer from. These guys can afford to buy whatever they want, don't worry about what someone thinks about their ride, and also don't worry about what someone else drives. I'm not talking about everybody in town, as there are plenty of high end German and Japanese sleds ripping around, but about the Jeep guys in my neighborhood. In fairness I have not asked your question of them explicitly, but the relatively high financial literacy of the group leads me to believe that most would discount even more heavily, if at all possible, recommendations from people who finance depreciating assets.
 

bigbaozi

Well-Known Member
Joined
Jun 4, 2020
Messages
319
Reaction score
436
Location
Texas
Vehicle(s)
Wrangler Unlimited Sport S
Man, I wish people wouldn't post stuff like this because of course I'm going to go look and see that I could basically get around $500 away from what I paid for it a year ago (tax included)...
 

Notorious

Well-Known Member
First Name
Kevin
Joined
Feb 11, 2020
Messages
2,128
Reaction score
4,214
Location
North Texas
Vehicle(s)
2000 TJ Sahara
that I could basically get around $500 away from what I paid for it a year ago
But then you wouldn’t have a vehicle to drive and you’d most likely get destroyed trying to buy a new one.
 

dalema

Well-Known Member
Joined
Jul 7, 2019
Messages
507
Reaction score
454
Location
Bay Area
Vehicle(s)
JLUR, Golf GTI
But then you wouldn’t have a vehicle to drive and you’d most likely get destroyed trying to buy a new one.
that's an assumption that it's a daily driver. why destroyed if you can still get 8% under invoice if you order one - albeit from a more limited number of dealers currently?
 

dalema

Well-Known Member
Joined
Jul 7, 2019
Messages
507
Reaction score
454
Location
Bay Area
Vehicle(s)
JLUR, Golf GTI
Pretty straightforward...with a few exceptions the guys in my hood tend to drive Sports and Saharas, are happy as can be with them, find them more than capable for their needs, and do not suffer from the envy that other posters, many who whom advocate financing Rubicons, implied they would suffer from. These guys can afford to buy whatever they want, don't worry about what someone thinks about their ride, and also don't worry about what someone else drives. I'm not talking about everybody in town, as there are plenty of high end German and Japanese sleds ripping around, but about the Jeep guys in my neighborhood. In fairness I have not asked your question of them explicitly, but the relatively high financial literacy of the group leads me to believe that most would discount even more heavily, if at all possible, recommendations from people who finance depreciating assets.
I think that what you are trying to say, based on your well to do hood experience, is that a person who is not as rich (and in fact most people on this forum) would only buy a rubicon as they are trying to exhibit an image of having more money than what they do / to appease some online forum envy?

i'm willing to bet that the sport or saharas they are tooling around in up to their cabins are a nice 2nd or 3rd vehicle for them also
 

Notorious

Well-Known Member
First Name
Kevin
Joined
Feb 11, 2020
Messages
2,128
Reaction score
4,214
Location
North Texas
Vehicle(s)
2000 TJ Sahara
that's an assumption that it's a daily driver. why destroyed if you can still get 8% under invoice if you order one - albeit from a more limited number of dealers currently?
As the supply starts getting better, I’ll share your optimism. Right now, every dealer (including the one that I purchased from) is asking and getting MSRP. Also, if it’s not a DD, is the buyer getting his money’s worth?
 

bigbaozi

Well-Known Member
Joined
Jun 4, 2020
Messages
319
Reaction score
436
Location
Texas
Vehicle(s)
Wrangler Unlimited Sport S
But then you wouldn’t have a vehicle to drive and you’d most likely get destroyed trying to buy a new one.
For us it's a third "fun" vehicle, so I can wait for the situation to improve and buy a new one when the time is right.

Although, getting my wife to let me buy a Wrangler again is risky. Especially an upgrade.
 

dalema

Well-Known Member
Joined
Jul 7, 2019
Messages
507
Reaction score
454
Location
Bay Area
Vehicle(s)
JLUR, Golf GTI
As the supply starts getting better, I’ll share your optimism. Right now, every dealer (including the one that I purchased from) is asking and getting MSRP. Also, if it’s not a DD, is the buyer getting his money’s worth?
I hope the supply gets better soon also, however, it is a fact that there are still deals to be had well below invoice on an order and no one should be paying MSRP. Go take a read of the Recommended Dealers thread - it's still pretty active over there, albeit with less dealers to pick from.
 

bigbaozi

Well-Known Member
Joined
Jun 4, 2020
Messages
319
Reaction score
436
Location
Texas
Vehicle(s)
Wrangler Unlimited Sport S
As the supply starts getting better, I’ll share your optimism. Right now, every dealer (including the one that I purchased from) is asking and getting MSRP. Also, if it’s not a DD, is the buyer getting his money’s worth?
I hope I'm getting my money's worth... YMMV.
 

Notorious

Well-Known Member
First Name
Kevin
Joined
Feb 11, 2020
Messages
2,128
Reaction score
4,214
Location
North Texas
Vehicle(s)
2000 TJ Sahara
For us it's a third "fun" vehicle, so I can wait for the situation to improve and buy a new one when the time is right.
Nice. Do it then.
Although, getting my wife to let me buy a Wrangler again is risky. Especially an upgrade.
You don’t need her permission. You do it and if there’s a question, you respond with this
1623797611705.gif


Go take a read of the Recommended Dealers thread - it's still pretty active over there, albeit with less dealers to pick from.
It’s a busy thread. If I was in the market again I probably would. :beer:
 

bigbaozi

Well-Known Member
Joined
Jun 4, 2020
Messages
319
Reaction score
436
Location
Texas
Vehicle(s)
Wrangler Unlimited Sport S
Nice. Do it then.

You don’t need her permission. You do it and if there’s a question, you respond with this
1623797611705.gif



It’s a busy thread. If I was in the market again I probably would. :beer:
If they'd bring Punk'n back I wouldn't have to do anything. C'mon 2022.
 

dalema

Well-Known Member
Joined
Jul 7, 2019
Messages
507
Reaction score
454
Location
Bay Area
Vehicle(s)
JLUR, Golf GTI
I see lots of people posting about selling to Vroom or Carava, but not many people actually doing it. If the window of opportunity closes (spoiler alert: it will) don't say you were not warned.
Super interesting with those lumber prices - just seems like a lot of unstability / uncertainty out there when you have stuff like that happening. I saw that article in the WSJ of people shifting their spending from goods to services also.

I agree with you that people shouldn't be getting in over their heads with using some government check they received to finance a vehicle. Having said that I'm a firm believer in there is a right place and fact pattern for financing. Even a depreciating asset - and while what we are seeing now is not the norm - the wrangler, in particular the Rubi has historically held it's value well for a depreciating asset.

I sold my JL on Vroom - made complete sense to do it, and have another one on order. Sometimes opportunities present themselves and if you've positioned yourself well you should take advantage of them.
 

Advertisement




Tazer JL - Z Automotive
 



Advertisement
Top