JL Window Sticker and Build Sheet Order Tracking

[mastrcruse]

They could also be providing worst-case dates.

I just got a 10/12 date on a 6/8 order. I saw someone post a December date on IG!

I had the same “worse case” thought. They may be getting swamped with all the JC sessions and decided to communicate something.

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[rent]

https://www.jlwranglerforums.com/fo...build-sheet-order-tracking.12503/post-1522412

I stopped doing my really lengthy updates, so I don't dump these reference URLs very often:

Other Investigations
The request to build graph explained
Delays over time
Property standard deviations
(Very) slow orders
Build days histogram
What it really means for something to be "slower"

Was going to suggest bayesian linear models but sounds like you've already done it. In any case, just want to say that your postings are the most intriguing part of this thread. Thanks for the updates and explanations. I thoroughly enjoyed reading and thinking about them.

 

[BDoerr54]

Again Jeep chat has me in D1. Contacted my dealer to see if my 8/5 ship date was still good. He's now saying 8/10 for a ship date. Ordered Sarge Green 4Xe Sahara 6/28.

 

[BobT]

Again Jeep chat has me in D1. Contacted my dealer to see if my 8/5 ship date was still good. He's now saying 8/10 for a ship date. Ordered Sarge Green 4Xe Sahara 6/28.

Do you have a window sticker yet?

 

[RubiSlippers]

Has anyone gotten a letter that isn’t quoting a delivery of Sept-Oct or later?

I’m kind of curious as to whether these are outliers and they’re setting expectations, or whether it’s all orders being pushed? They could also be providing worst-case dates.

I got late August, I’m also close to Toledo though.

 

[BDoerr54]

Do you have a window sticker yet?

No, not sure what's going on.

Yesterday jeep chat said I was in D1 still. Followed up with my dealer this morning and he said ship date pushed back to 8/10. So I reached out to jeep chat and they said I'm back to "gathering parts and scheduling". I told her I was in D1 according to them and my dealer and she said I was given misinformation and I'm still in the gathering parts phase. Does Jeep chat have all the right info??

 

[ohiojeep]

Has anyone gotten a letter that isn’t quoting a delivery of Sept-Oct or later?

I’m kind of curious as to whether these are outliers and they’re setting expectations, or whether it’s all orders being pushed? They could also be providing worst-case dates.

Just got his today (attached below) Ordered a 2 door Rubicon 6/29. So mad.

 

[mcjeff]

Just got his today (attached below) Ordered a 2 door Rubicon 6/29. So mad.

I would be mad too.

I haven't gotten a letter yet and I ordered on 7/19, so I'm not expecting anything for a bit. My 2020 JLUR got caught up in the COVID shutdown and took four months, so I was hoping this second round would be more "normal."

I think the most frustrating thing about these letters I'm seeing is that they're congratulatory. These are clearly longer lead times than expected, but they read as good news. I think a more apologetic tone would be more appropriate.

I don't even understand how some of them will even ship as late they're saying as I would have expected them to be into 2022 by some of these dates.

 

[GreggM]

When I ordered my 2020, the final build sheet listed “D1 to D regression”, which made sense as I saw the same thing as you.

Waiting on second one now (replacement). Ordered 7/19! This time it’s a diesel.

I ordered my Diesl on 6/25 and just got an update today that all parts have been gathered and build is now being sequenced. Hoping this means mid to late August delivery.

 

[Mastersloth]

Has anyone gotten a letter that isn’t quoting a delivery of Sept-Oct or later?

I’m kind of curious as to whether these are outliers and they’re setting expectations, or whether it’s all orders being pushed? They could also be providing worst-case dates.

2 door rubi ordered 7/16, haven't gotten any emails yet, maybe there's a specific option/package that's being delayed.

 

[mcjeff]

I ordered my Diesl on 6/25 and just got an update today that all parts have been gathered and build is now being sequenced. Hoping this means mid to late August delivery.

I ordered mine on 7/19 -- and surprisingly -- I got the same update today. Maybe the boat full of diesel engines showed up early. I explicitly asked about the emails in my Jeep chat today and she said the ordering team may send them out if there are delays.

 

[nomographer]

Has anyone gotten a letter that isn’t quoting a delivery of Sept-Oct or later?

I’m kind of curious as to whether these are outliers and they’re setting expectations, or whether it’s all orders being pushed? They could also be providing worst-case dates.

I've been trying to do it with the graphs. Mine took 84 days, I didn't get it in time for Christmas, I was very sad, so I'm trying to let you friendly future/current Jeep peeps know that 45 days is standard, 60 days is not that bad, and above 90 days is concerning.

Despite the factory being open while the Gladiators were paused, they are likely getting into a situation where the supply chain issues haven't resolved and they'll have no choice but to delay builds. They've already done stops here and there; they've already reduced to one keyfob plus backorder. They probably even were trying to build the higher value items to maintain early year revenue and hit their 2021 tax liability (I'm not a business person, isn't that in May or somesuch, where a company has typically made enough money to pay taxes for the year?).

Even if you order manual door locks you'll be stuck because there are chips everywhere.

I'm in Seattle if people need rides.

 

[nomographer]

Was going to suggest bayesian linear models but sounds like you've already done it. In any case, just want to say that your postings are the most intriguing part of this thread. Thanks for the updates and explanations. I thoroughly enjoyed reading and thinking about them.

I don't claim to be a machine learning expert, but I don't see much point in stuffing the numbers through a network because the initial attempts lacked predictive power. One week of data was, say, 85% accurate about tomorrow's builds, but only 55% accurate about next week's. My deduction was that we lack access to appropriate data to do better than the simple probability distribution.

Even "high priced orders" should have revealed through those approaches, but they didn't. Meanwhile we have plant shutdowns and chip shortages, but I'm not going to feed the AP rss news feed just to try to predict builds. I'm not making money or placing bets.

But I just reread one of them and oh dear I had forgotten this bit: "
In most cases, we could give a 4-week window with 70% confidence but if you want 95% confidence you need an 8-week window. "

 

[Chaos9519]

Some good-ish news. It does look like they got a batch of diesel engines!

2021 Jeep Wrangler Unlimited Rubicon w/ 3.0L Eco-Diesel
Snazzberry
Color Matched Fenders
Black Hardtop
Black Cloth Seats
Keyless Entry
Steel Bumper
Advanced Safety
Premium Audio Group
LED Light Group
Trailer Tow and HD Electrical Group
Cold Weather Group

7/3/21 : Ordered from Pollard Jeep of Boulder, CO

7/4/21 : VON

7/12/21 : VIN

7/30/21 : Jeep Chat - "I am showing that your order is in the scheduling phase of the manufacturing process. The parts required to build the vehicle are being scheduled and as soon as they available and ready, order will be scheduled for build."

7/31/21 : Automated notification email of estimated delivery, week 9/28/21.

7/31/21 : Jeep Chat - "The Jeep is in the production stage with all parts gathered and it's waiting to move into the build process. At this time we do not have an estimate for when the build will begin. I'd recommend contacting back in three to four weeks for a new update check, but we are available 24/7 if you do want to contact back sooner. With a new vehicle order, from when the order is placed to when it arrives at the dealership can take 8 to 10 weeks."

A few questions:
-Crypto stickers still shows everything "NOT FOUND", is that correct?
-How can I tell what plant my jeep is being built at?
-What engine will show on Cryptostickers? I don't see the Diesel engine on any other builds?
-How can I find out what delivery method my Jeep will come in? Is one faster than another? Good or Bad?
-Once I have a date like I have, what are the chances of it being sooner / later / on-time?

 

[LuvHydro]

I'm in Seattle if people need rides.