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JL Window Sticker and Build Sheet Order Tracking

treesmacker

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JLJL74 Wrangler Sport S 2.0L "Hopalong"
Ordered 4/23
Build Sheet 5/13
Sticker 5/19
Per Jeep Chat as of 5/20 "Great News! I am showing that your vehicle is in the shipping stage. Current Dealer ETA is 05/27/2021 - 06/10/2021.

Dealership is in Roseburg, Oregon; does anybody have experience with time to get from Ohio to Oregon? I know it can vary, but still interested in hearing if anyone has results.
Is anyone in Oregon getting Jeeps?? How long? I'm getting quite anxious! :fingerscrossed:



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amprice4

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Is anyone in Oregon getting Jeeps?? How long? I'm getting quite anxious! :fingerscrossed:
Not Oregon but mine is going to the Seattle area. I’m pretty sure on their way to Seattle they go through Oregon first. I was told by my dealer that they expect mine to be in the Kent WA on 6/3. It shipped out on 5/20 so that would be exactly two weeks. I’d expect about the same if not a little faster to Oregon.

ours might be on the same train...
 

treesmacker

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Not Oregon but mine is going to the Seattle area. I’m pretty sure on their way to Seattle they go through Oregon first. I was told by my dealer that they expect mine to be in the Kent WA on 6/3. It shipped out on 5/20 so that would be exactly two weeks. I’d expect about the same if not a little faster to Oregon.

ours might be on the same train...
Oh great! Yep, I hope they are on the same train! I heard something about them having to go through Hinkle - makes sense that Oregon and Washington would both pass through there!
 

amprice4

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Oh great! Yep, I hope they are on the same train! I heard something about them having to go through Hinkle - makes sense that Oregon and Washington would both pass through there!
Yeah that would make sense. Hinkle to Portland then north to Kent.
you can ask your dealer and they should be able to tell you exactly where it’s at. My dealer said mine was in Iowa onTuesday 5/25 When I asked last.
lol let me know what they say if you get a location on that train.
 

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treesmacker

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Oh great! Yep, I hope they are on the same train! I heard something about them having to go through Hinkle - makes sense that Oregon and Washington would both pass through there!
Lots of train activity at Hinkle (of coarse not current photos) - I think I see some snazzberry there :LOL:!
Jeep Wrangler JL JL Window Sticker and Build Sheet Order Tracking 1622166117399

Jeep Wrangler JL JL Window Sticker and Build Sheet Order Tracking 1622166277491

Jeep Wrangler JL JL Window Sticker and Build Sheet Order Tracking 1622166581650
 

nomographer

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I envision forum members with every wsdot traffic camera from Kent to their dealer open on a screen, glued 24/7 for the prospect of Jeeps being loaded onto trucks. :giggle:
 

nomographer

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Jeep Wrangler JL JL Window Sticker and Build Sheet Order Tracking percentiles-request-to-build


This shows the percentile level sets of the two week windowed-moving-average request-to-build days. (There, I explained it! :angel: )

If all you care about is "Where is my Jeep?!", where the green line hits the right-hand side is the number of days the fastest 60% of builds are taking. 60% of builds will be at least that fast, whereas the other 40% will take longer. For this graph, that value is 21 days / 3 weeks. As of today, 80% update in 29 days or less, and 20% are slower than that.


For the others...

The time of interest is the "request to build time", measured in days. If you order 8/01 and the build sheet appears 8/25, that's 24 days request-to-build. This is the vertical axis as labeled at left, from 0 upto 80 on this graph. Everyone wants this to be as small as possible.

Production speed changes over time, week over week, month over month. Builds from September might suffer new-model delays; from December might suffer holiday/weather delays; early spring might suffer popularity/new-car-ordering delays; and so forth. It is therefore beneficial to look at recent history, so the past 75 days / 2.5 months are placed on the horizontal axis.

There's another issue, however, since a bunch of ModelA could have completed yesterday, whereas today they focused on ModelB. If ModelAs are only taking 30 days to build, but ModelBs are taking 60, it's not accurate to say that "today builds are taking 30 days longer" and any such graph would be very spikey, jumping from 30 to 60 back to 30, etcetera. Instead, all the builds from the previous 14 days / 2 weeks are used. The value from "21 days ago" actually looks at all builds between 35dy and 21dy ago. This is a windowed moving average. The "window" is 14 days wide, and it is inspected for every day 75 days ago to now. IE, (89-to-75), (88-to-74), (87-to-73), ... (14-to-0) days ago.

All builds in each window have a request-to-build time. A graph could show the average, but that can be drastically affected by outliers (the slow builds in this case). The graph could show the median, but it wouldn't be clear just how slow/fast the others are. Many have heard of standard deviations, but they really don't apply here (in short, because the distribution is not normal). Instead, percentiles are used to show what percentage of builds took less than a given amount of time.

This, unfortunately, introduces three values: Days required to build, days ago / historical, and the percentage of builds in the window that took that long to build. Okay, we can do that...

Jeep Wrangler JL JL Window Sticker and Build Sheet Order Tracking percentiles-request-to-build-3d


But other than :surprised: of what value is that? Sure, it's possible to see the little blue squiggly line (near percentile 50) that represents 20 days from request to build, but this graph basically only tells us "the slowest 20% take a lot longer and, sadly, increasingly so".

Instead, it's much easier to show where the fastest 20% of the data is, where the next fastest 20% is, and so forth:
Jeep Wrangler JL JL Window Sticker and Build Sheet Order Tracking percentiles-request-to-build
 

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nomographer

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Thanks for your hard work on this!

Some feedback: It took me a few weeks of seeing this chart to really understand what you are getting at. I think it could be helpful to add a paragraph describing how to interpret the data.
How's that (my previous post)? 🤓
 

nomographer

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And I use lines because try explaining heat maps :giggle:

Jeep Wrangler JL JL Window Sticker and Build Sheet Order Tracking pheat


All I see is a nice reddish ridge over which to drive a Jeep.
 

dplouton

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Any idea where cryptodata gets its data? I ordered my Jeep 3/20, the build sheet and sticker showed up on the Jeep sites 5/5, and have been on there ever since. The build sheet gets updated almost every day on the Jeep site. The cryptodata we site has shown NONE since I entered my VIN. My dealer and Jeep Chat now show my delivery 5/24-6/7. My build sheet has “Special Scheduling Condition VII” and the dreaded ”D1-To-D Regress”.
 

Kfoo

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How's that (my previous post)? 🤓
I dig it! Maybe you can link to this post in your future postings!
One quick question, I'm assuming the line is a time series given the sliding window so how am I supposed to know when it applies to the request to build time?
 

Bubsjeep

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Just got this from Jeep chat
I am showing that your vehicle is in the shipping stage however a Dealer ETA has not been provided. It will remain in this stage until delivered to the Dealer.

getting closer!!
ordered 5/29
 

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