JL Window Sticker and Build Sheet Order Tracking

[nomographer]

I appreciate this info. Thanks! Hey in the build chart we see for example p60 going from maybe 35% 40 days ago to maybe 22% now. Does that mean build time are slowing down (increase)? Conversely if we saw a positive slope at the right hand side of the chart it could mean build speed is increasing? I’m interpreting the p60 line to suggest a larger portion of the builds are falling outside the 60% group.

I might be confused… I’m an engineer not a statistician

Backwards. The vertical axis should probably be relabeled as it represents the number of days to go from the Request to Build (sheet being posted). It's a 14-day windowed moving average, so it means that 60% of all builds in the last two weeks appeared in 22dy (or faster), versus 30dy ago when 60% of all builds (in the preceding two weeks) appeared in 32dy (or faster).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Percentile

Ergo, over the past 30 days, things have been getting better (faster). Manual transmission delays, 392 delays, chip delays, halfdoor delays, have all been getting flushed out of the system.

90% of all recent builds appeared in under 55 days. If you've waited more than 55 days you are in the "slowest 10%". Anything above 22dy is in the "slowest 40%", but I would say people shouldn't be feeling slighted until they're creeping above the 35 day mark.

Disclaimer: I don't have any connections with FCA. I'm merely using the data available on cryptostickers.net. IE, everyone who orders and doesn't put their VIN on cryptostickers, we know nothing about. EG, probably a tonne of the dealer orders.

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[nomographer]

I can probably just summarize as follows:

At least one has been built with everything you ordered	Flipped a coin four times and it came up heads all four times	Your build will take 5--45 days
At least one has been built with everything you ordered	Flipped a coin four times and it came up tails at least once	Your build will take 15--85 days
Never been built before	Flipped a coin and it fell back down	Your build will take 35--175 days

 

[K-nuk]

Backwards. The vertical axis should probably be relabeled as it represents the number of days to go from the Request to Build (sheet being posted). It's a 14-day windowed moving average, so it means that 60% of all builds in the last two weeks appeared in 22dy (or faster), versus 30dy ago when 60% of all builds (in the preceding two weeks) appeared in 32dy (or faster).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Percentile

Ergo, over the past 30 days, things have been getting better (faster). Manual transmission delays, 392 delays, chip delays, halfdoor delays, have all been getting flushed out of the system.

90% of all recent builds appeared in under 55 days. If you've waited more than 55 days you are in the "slowest 10%". Anything above 22dy is in the "slowest 40%", but I would say people shouldn't be feeling slighted until they're creeping above the 35 day mark.

Disclaimer: I don't have any connections with FCA. I'm merely using the data available on cryptostickers.net. IE, everyone who orders and doesn't put their VIN on cryptostickers, we know nothing about. EG, probably a tonne of the dealer orders.

Good last two posts! I find it easiest to get my head around standard deviations as a way to gauge a process with lots of variables. I wonder what the correlation would be if you could model semiconductor chips considering that no “feature” seems strongly correlated. Or… Covid infections (not wanting to get into politics — just thinking about the model and staying away from potential collinearity).

 

[K-nuk]

Good last two posts! I find it easiest to get my head around standard deviations as a way to gauge a process with lots of variables. I wonder what the correlation would be if you could model semiconductor chips considering that no “feature” seems strongly correlated. Or… Covid infections (not wanting to get into politics — just thinking about the model and staying away from potential collinearity).

Again, I really appreciate your posts. I’m not a stats guy, and I didn’t sleep at a holiday inn last night! It gives me something to think about as I’m pulling goodies off my JLUR waiting for my JLURD!

 

[Chazdog]

Another week, another seven days of waiting. It seems that the manual transmissions have now moved into the top slot for slowing down overall request-to-sticker times, though the dreaded regress still impacts the build sheet most of all.

We all hope that the numbers are in your favor in the next week!

Summary

Total records	3782
Completed	3086
Build started	1959

Past Year

Request-to-Build days	Build-to-Sticker days	Request-to-Sticker days
29.3	10.1	45.5	Overall
28.0			Model 2021 Jeep Wrangler Rubicon Unlimited Rhd
29.2	5.5	41.0	Model 2021 Jeep Wrangler Sport Unlimited
31.0	5.1	43.0	Model 2021 Jeep Wrangler Sahara Unlimited
27.5	6.8	43.3	Model 2021 Jeep Wrangler Rubicon Unlimited
31.4	6.4	43.5	Model 2021 Jeep Wrangler Sport
33.3	9.1	45.6	Model 2021 Jeep Wrangler Rubicon
34.0	4.8	49.0	Model 2021 Jeep Wrangler Sport Unlimited Rhd
25.9	18.2	52.9	Model 2021 Jeep Wrangler Sahara Unlimited 4xe Sport
28.4	20.6	53.2	Model 2021 Jeep Wrangler Rubicon Unlimited 4xe Sport
56.7	14.3	78.1	Model 2021 Jeep Wrangler Rubicon Unlimited 392
28.6	6.5	43.2	Engine 3.0l Turbo
30.4	7.1	44.2	Engine 3.6l Pentastar
28.2	13.5	47.8	Engine 2.0l Turbo
56.7	14.3	78.1	Engine 6.4l Hemi
28.6	6.4	42.9	Doors 4
32.2	7.7	45.0	Doors 2

Lag
(Relative to model average)
(Property appears in >2% of builds)
(Request-to-Sticker more than 2.0 days from average)
(Properties do not necessary cause delays; a related feature may be the culprit)

Request-to-Build	Build-to-Sticker	Request-to-Sticker
-4.67	-0.58	-3.42	18x7.5 Granite Crystal Alum Wheels
0.38	-0.01	-2.96	Mopar Black Tubular Side Steps
-0.22	3.33	-2.43	Mopar Hd Rock Slider W/step Assist
-1.13	0.73	-2.19	Front Mopar Grab Handles
-1.13	0.73	-2.19	Mopar Grab Handle Kit
-1.51	-1.34	-2.16	3.6l V6 24v Vvt Etorque Engine Upg I
0.00	0.00	0.00	Spring - Left Front
2.38	1.33	2.01	Black Sunrider Soft Top
2.56	2.48	2.14	Uconnect 3 With 5" Display
5.23	4.79	2.16	Mopar Stitched Leather Black
1.93	1.00	2.86	Engine Block Heater
-0.07	2.55	2.90	Mopar Satin Black Grille
1.76	-0.43	3.02	245/75r17 All-terrain Tires
9.82	1.42	4.17	D1-to-d Regress
3.94	3.05	4.50	All Manual Transmissions
3.91	3.05	4.50	3.6l V6 24v Vvt Engine Upg I W/ess

Open Orders
Days since request, no build sheet nor sticker, request in the last 100 days
p20: 12
p40: 17
p60: 30
p80: 60
p90: 80
p95: 90
p100: 99

Another week, another seven days of waiting. It seems that the manual transmissions have now moved into the top slot for slowing down overall request-to-sticker times, though the dreaded regress still impacts the build sheet most of all.

We all hope that the numbers are in your favor in the next week!

Summary

Total records	3782
Completed	3086
Build started	1959

Past Year

Request-to-Build days	Build-to-Sticker days	Request-to-Sticker days
29.3	10.1	45.5	Overall
28.0			Model 2021 Jeep Wrangler Rubicon Unlimited Rhd
29.2	5.5	41.0	Model 2021 Jeep Wrangler Sport Unlimited
31.0	5.1	43.0	Model 2021 Jeep Wrangler Sahara Unlimited
27.5	6.8	43.3	Model 2021 Jeep Wrangler Rubicon Unlimited
31.4	6.4	43.5	Model 2021 Jeep Wrangler Sport
33.3	9.1	45.6	Model 2021 Jeep Wrangler Rubicon
34.0	4.8	49.0	Model 2021 Jeep Wrangler Sport Unlimited Rhd
25.9	18.2	52.9	Model 2021 Jeep Wrangler Sahara Unlimited 4xe Sport
28.4	20.6	53.2	Model 2021 Jeep Wrangler Rubicon Unlimited 4xe Sport
56.7	14.3	78.1	Model 2021 Jeep Wrangler Rubicon Unlimited 392
28.6	6.5	43.2	Engine 3.0l Turbo
30.4	7.1	44.2	Engine 3.6l Pentastar
28.2	13.5	47.8	Engine 2.0l Turbo
56.7	14.3	78.1	Engine 6.4l Hemi
28.6	6.4	42.9	Doors 4
32.2	7.7	45.0	Doors 2

Lag
(Relative to model average)
(Property appears in >2% of builds)
(Request-to-Sticker more than 2.0 days from average)
(Properties do not necessary cause delays; a related feature may be the culprit)

Request-to-Build	Build-to-Sticker	Request-to-Sticker
-4.67	-0.58	-3.42	18x7.5 Granite Crystal Alum Wheels
0.38	-0.01	-2.96	Mopar Black Tubular Side Steps
-0.22	3.33	-2.43	Mopar Hd Rock Slider W/step Assist
-1.13	0.73	-2.19	Front Mopar Grab Handles
-1.13	0.73	-2.19	Mopar Grab Handle Kit
-1.51	-1.34	-2.16	3.6l V6 24v Vvt Etorque Engine Upg I
0.00	0.00	0.00	Spring - Left Front
2.38	1.33	2.01	Black Sunrider Soft Top
2.56	2.48	2.14	Uconnect 3 With 5" Display
5.23	4.79	2.16	Mopar Stitched Leather Black
1.93	1.00	2.86	Engine Block Heater
-0.07	2.55	2.90	Mopar Satin Black Grille
1.76	-0.43	3.02	245/75r17 All-terrain Tires
9.82	1.42	4.17	D1-to-d Regress
3.94	3.05	4.50	All Manual Transmissions
3.91	3.05	4.50	3.6l V6 24v Vvt Engine Upg I W/ess

Open Orders
Days since request, no build sheet nor sticker, request in the last 100 days
p20: 12
p40: 17
p60: 30
p80: 60
p90: 80
p95: 90
p100: 99

I have truly appreciated this tool for tracking my build. Thank you. I’m not so sure about your statement that manuals are slower to come off the line. My dealer ended up ordering 2 for me due to a mix up and maybe an aberration but both were built and stickered in exactly 3 weeks. I was surprised

and pleased but do feel bad for all of you waiting much longer.

 

[K-nuk]

I have truly appreciated this tool for tracking my build. Thank you. I’m not so sure about your statement that manuals are slower to come off the line. My dealer ended up ordering 2 for me due to a mix up and maybe an aberration but both were built and stickered in exactly 3 weeks. I was surprised

and pleased but do feel bad for all of you waiting much longer.

Wow… I’m at 2.5 weeks and nothing. I got the VIN and VON right away but since that excitement it been zero, zilch, zippo… dealer says it shows 5/22 for ship date but I’m not feeling good about the reliability of that date.

JLURD, half doors, and almost all the other goodies except adaptive cruise … never been a fan of that.

 

[nomographer]

I gotta admit that some days I like the adaptive cruise. Usually when I'm way too tired from hiking and it's just best to set it to maximum distance and ignore that it's a bit clunky about speed control, which you can manage by changing the speed setting proactively.

Can't imagine how pointless it would be in an automatic to have the thing basically completely stop and go for you. At least in a manual you can coast it coming up to traffic. Still though, most of the time I can drive more smoothly than adaptive or regular cruise.

The one time a deer crossed the road in front of me (rare since I live in a city) I was on the brakes before forward collision warning fired. Shrug. Spend your money on other things I suppose.

 

[griffinm]

Took delivery of my new JLUR on Saturday. Happy camper. I'm in NC (gas shortage) but luckily the dealer found a station with gas to fill her up, and I found gas to make the trip to the dealer (an hour drive away).

- bright white w/ black leather
- 3.6L w/ eTorque / automatic
- painted hard top and fenders
- steel bumper group
- trailer tow package
- cold weather group
- LED group
- safety and advanced safety groups
- full time 4WD
- remote proximity
- off road camera
- Mopar add on's: headliner, door sills (plastic), and cargo tub

4/16/21 - Order submitted; VON received
4/19/21 - VIN provided by dealer
4/19/21 - D1 status; estimated ship date: 4/29
4/27/21 - Build Sheet
4/29/21 - Shipped
4/30/21 - Window Sticker
5/15/21 - Picked up from dealer

 

[K-nuk]

Took delivery of my new JLUR on Saturday. Happy camper. I'm in NC (gas shortage) but luckily the dealer found a station with gas to fill her up, and I found gas to make the trip to the dealer (an hour drive away).

- bright white w/ black leather
- 3.6L w/ eTorque / automatic
- painted hard top and fenders
- steel bumper group
- trailer tow package
- cold weather group
- LED group
- safety and advanced safety groups
- full time 4WD
- remote proximity
- off road camera
- Mopar add on's: headliner, door sills (plastic), and cargo tub

4/16/21 - Order submitted; VON received
4/19/21 - VIN provided by dealer
4/19/21 - D1 status; estimated ship date: 4/29
4/27/21 - Build Sheet
4/29/21 - Shipped
4/30/21 - Window Sticker
5/15/21 - Picked up from dealer

Wow that was fast… 10 days from VIN to ship! Glad for you griffinm! I’m at 17 days since getting the VIN and still nothing….

 

[dblankenbaker]

Wow… I’m at 2.5 weeks and nothing....

JLURD, half doors, and almost all the other goodies except adaptive cruise … never been a fan of that.

I'm ~10 days behind you with pretty much the same build. I'll be watching your progress.

 

[K-nuk]

I'm ~10 days behind you with pretty much the same build. I'll be watching your progress.

Here's my build details. Already have a Trektop from my 2018 JLUR and also ordered an Ursa Minor with an ETA of October (!). Gotta learn patience...

 

[txbudda]

Ordered 4/13 picked up 5/15

I want to give a special shout out to Neil Carpenter of Demontrond CDJ! This was the smoothest vehicle purchase I have ever done. The Price Neil gives you is what you get, no haggling, just pay TT&L, sign and you are out the door

I picked mine up from them Saturday morning had the same experience with David Glenn. In and out i about an hour and half all together

 

[griffinm]

Wow that was fast… 10 days from VIN to ship! Glad for you griffinm! I’m at 17 days since getting the VIN and still nothing….

The waiting game is definitely hard. Worse than waiting for Santa when I was 6 years old.

 

[FunWagon]

Ordered 4/13 picked up 5/15

I want to give a special shout out to Neil Carpenter of Demontrond CDJ! This was the smoothest vehicle purchase I have ever done. The Price Neil gives you is what you get, no haggling, just pay TT&L, sign and you are out the door

I also ordered a white Rubi on 4/13 but mine is far from ready due to half doors.

congrats

Now enjoy it. You’re probably not reading this thread anymore. Ha ha.

 

[K-nuk]

I'm ~10 days behind you with pretty much the same build. I'll be watching your progress.

Wohoo! Got an update!

Called the dealer and he checked: “G” status (painted awaiting trim). He says the updated shipping estimate is 5/24. Up till now it was 5/22 so this seems like a real life update

4/30 ordered
5/2 VIN and VON, estimated ship 5/22
5/17 “G” status, estimated ship 5/24

25 days order to ship???

Crypto still shows not found x 2

JeepChat says … u guessed it, parts ready waiting to start build