JL Window Sticker and Build Sheet Order Tracking

[medicmster]

I guess I don't understand a lot of things. I placed my order on 5/6 and got my VIN a week later. I have not heard of anything since. How are you all tracking things. I have looked on the part about putting in your VIN number but it keeps saying nothing is found. Maybe I am just not looking in the right spot.

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[Low_Spark]

Nah. I’m leasing and my first Jeep, so likely to keep it stock. Ashamed to admit it’s probably only going to see dirty a handful of times.

No shame in that, it's your Jeep, enjoy it however you want. One "mod" I would look into though is a mesh top. Not that we have a ton of opportunities here for topless days but, I will say from experience, being stuck in traffic with the top off and the sun cooking down SUUUUUCKS! The mesh will go a long way to keeping you comfortable. You can pick a good one up for under 200.

 

[Low_Spark]

I guess I don't understand a lot of things. I placed my order on 5/6 and got my VIN a week later. I have not heard of anything since. How are you all tracking things. I have looked on the part about putting in your VIN number but it keeps saying nothing is found. Maybe I am just not looking in the right spot.

I rotate between calling my dealer and reaching out to jeep chat. If you just got your vin yesterday youve got 2 weeks or so to go before it's built, assuming a similar schedule.

 

[28firefighter]

No shame in that, it's your Jeep, enjoy it however you want. One "mod" I would look into though is a mesh top. Not that we have a ton of opportunities here for topless days but, I will say from experience, being stuck in traffic with the top off and the sun cooking down SUUUUUCKS! The mesh will go a long way to keeping you comfortable. You can pick a good one up for under 200.

thanks! Great suggestion. Maybe I’ll see ya at the dealer during delivery.

 

[nomographer]

Jeep builds mostly happen in "weeks" not "days". Build sheets appear after assembly. Window stickers appear after quality inspection.

If you need something to do in the meantime, start buying parts or writing down possible newjeep names.

 

[A.fax21]

I checked in with Leon yesterday and he confirmed I'm still in D1 status and that my est. ship date was still 5/19. I hope it doesn't change, lol. He said he'll reach out to me again on 5/21. From what I've read on here, it typically takes 2 days for orders to make it to Criswell by truck so I'm hoping all goes well and I'll be able to pick it up next Saturday.

 

[IAJeepguy]

I check in to Jeep chat once a week, sometimes it’s a week and a half or 2 weeks, and email my dealer every couple of weeks or so. My last change of progress was 4/27, when I received…

“I am showing that your vehicle has been built and is pending installation of additional equipment. This is a necessary step when additional features or optional equipment packages are added to the vehicle. Currently no Dealer ETA has been provided.”


As of today (5/15) nothing has changed. These long onslaughts of sitting in one stage are driving me crazy .

My dealer said he was thinking mid month this month originally, but the last email he was thinking it was going to be June by the looks of it.

I’m just ready to have my Jeep already. .

Just being impatient… lol

 

[jhrodd]

Has anyone that ordered from Phillip Olson at Bud Clary in WA been able to get a hold of him? My JLU arrived at the dealer yesterday according to Jeep chat but I haven't had any luck contacting Phillip in over a week. I've tried emails, text, and calling but it's been radio silence. Not sure if he's on vacation and I hope everything is okay with him but I'm out of state and would really like to get arrangements for pick up taken care of...

I spoke to him a couple days ago, my Jeep came in last Tuesday and I'm picking it up tomorrow. If I understood correctly he has been on vacation, Halibut fishing or some such nonsense. I have been trading texts mostly with Aydin.

 

[Cypher]

Has anyone that ordered from Phillip Olson at Bud Clary in WA been able to get a hold of him? My JLU arrived at the dealer yesterday according to Jeep chat but I haven't had any luck contacting Phillip in over a week. I've tried emails, text, and calling but it's been radio silence. Not sure if he's on vacation and I hope everything is okay with him but I'm out of state and would really like to get arrangements for pick up taken care of...

I ended up switching dealers after a week of no contact. he did the same a few weeks back, then reached out, then never returned a call, email etc. after that. decided it was not worth the hassle and switched to another dealer.

 

[desmo2]

I guess I don't understand a lot of things. I placed my order on 5/6 and got my VIN a week later. I have not heard of anything since. How are you all tracking things. I have looked on the part about putting in your VIN number but it keeps saying nothing is found. Maybe I am just not looking in the right spot.

Normal. You won't get a build sheet until your Jeep actually begins the build process. You won't get a window sticker until your build is ready to ship (and maybe not even then).

 

[Jeepahoula]

Jeep builds mostly happen in "weeks" not "days". Build sheets appear after assembly. Window stickers appear after quality inspection.

If you need something to do in the meantime, start buying parts or writing down possible newjeep names.

The struggle is real!!

 

[ynygma]

Ordered 4/13 picked up 5/15

I want to give a special shout out to Neil Carpenter of Demontrond CDJ! This was the smoothest vehicle purchase I have ever done. The Price Neil gives you is what you get, no haggling, just pay TT&L, sign and you are out the door

 

[nomographer]

Another week, another seven days of waiting. It seems that the manual transmissions have now moved into the top slot for slowing down overall request-to-sticker times, though the dreaded regress still impacts the build sheet most of all.

We all hope that the numbers are in your favor in the next week!

Summary

Total records	3782
Completed	3086
Build started	1959

Past Year

Request-to-Build days	Build-to-Sticker days	Request-to-Sticker days
29.3	10.1	45.5	Overall
28.0			Model 2021 Jeep Wrangler Rubicon Unlimited Rhd
29.2	5.5	41.0	Model 2021 Jeep Wrangler Sport Unlimited
31.0	5.1	43.0	Model 2021 Jeep Wrangler Sahara Unlimited
27.5	6.8	43.3	Model 2021 Jeep Wrangler Rubicon Unlimited
31.4	6.4	43.5	Model 2021 Jeep Wrangler Sport
33.3	9.1	45.6	Model 2021 Jeep Wrangler Rubicon
34.0	4.8	49.0	Model 2021 Jeep Wrangler Sport Unlimited Rhd
25.9	18.2	52.9	Model 2021 Jeep Wrangler Sahara Unlimited 4xe Sport
28.4	20.6	53.2	Model 2021 Jeep Wrangler Rubicon Unlimited 4xe Sport
56.7	14.3	78.1	Model 2021 Jeep Wrangler Rubicon Unlimited 392
28.6	6.5	43.2	Engine 3.0l Turbo
30.4	7.1	44.2	Engine 3.6l Pentastar
28.2	13.5	47.8	Engine 2.0l Turbo
56.7	14.3	78.1	Engine 6.4l Hemi
28.6	6.4	42.9	Doors 4
32.2	7.7	45.0	Doors 2

Lag
(Relative to model average)
(Property appears in >2% of builds)
(Request-to-Sticker more than 2.0 days from average)
(Properties do not necessary cause delays; a related feature may be the culprit)

Request-to-Build	Build-to-Sticker	Request-to-Sticker
-4.67	-0.58	-3.42	18x7.5 Granite Crystal Alum Wheels
0.38	-0.01	-2.96	Mopar Black Tubular Side Steps
-0.22	3.33	-2.43	Mopar Hd Rock Slider W/step Assist
-1.13	0.73	-2.19	Front Mopar Grab Handles
-1.13	0.73	-2.19	Mopar Grab Handle Kit
-1.51	-1.34	-2.16	3.6l V6 24v Vvt Etorque Engine Upg I
0.00	0.00	0.00	Spring - Left Front
2.38	1.33	2.01	Black Sunrider Soft Top
2.56	2.48	2.14	Uconnect 3 With 5" Display
5.23	4.79	2.16	Mopar Stitched Leather Black
1.93	1.00	2.86	Engine Block Heater
-0.07	2.55	2.90	Mopar Satin Black Grille
1.76	-0.43	3.02	245/75r17 All-terrain Tires
9.82	1.42	4.17	D1-to-d Regress
3.94	3.05	4.50	All Manual Transmissions
3.91	3.05	4.50	3.6l V6 24v Vvt Engine Upg I W/ess

Open Orders
Days since request, no build sheet nor sticker, request in the last 100 days
p20: 12
p40: 17
p60: 30
p80: 60
p90: 80
p95: 90
p100: 99

 

[K-nuk]

Another week, another seven days of waiting. It seems that the manual transmissions have now moved into the top slot for slowing down overall request-to-sticker times, though the dreaded regress still impacts the build sheet most of all.

We all hope that the numbers are in your favor in the next week!

Summary

Total records	3782
Completed	3086
Build started	1959

Past Year

Request-to-Build days	Build-to-Sticker days	Request-to-Sticker days
29.3	10.1	45.5	Overall
28.0			Model 2021 Jeep Wrangler Rubicon Unlimited Rhd
29.2	5.5	41.0	Model 2021 Jeep Wrangler Sport Unlimited
31.0	5.1	43.0	Model 2021 Jeep Wrangler Sahara Unlimited
27.5	6.8	43.3	Model 2021 Jeep Wrangler Rubicon Unlimited
31.4	6.4	43.5	Model 2021 Jeep Wrangler Sport
33.3	9.1	45.6	Model 2021 Jeep Wrangler Rubicon
34.0	4.8	49.0	Model 2021 Jeep Wrangler Sport Unlimited Rhd
25.9	18.2	52.9	Model 2021 Jeep Wrangler Sahara Unlimited 4xe Sport
28.4	20.6	53.2	Model 2021 Jeep Wrangler Rubicon Unlimited 4xe Sport
56.7	14.3	78.1	Model 2021 Jeep Wrangler Rubicon Unlimited 392
28.6	6.5	43.2	Engine 3.0l Turbo
30.4	7.1	44.2	Engine 3.6l Pentastar
28.2	13.5	47.8	Engine 2.0l Turbo
56.7	14.3	78.1	Engine 6.4l Hemi
28.6	6.4	42.9	Doors 4
32.2	7.7	45.0	Doors 2

Lag
(Relative to model average)
(Property appears in >2% of builds)
(Request-to-Sticker more than 2.0 days from average)
(Properties do not necessary cause delays; a related feature may be the culprit)

Request-to-Build	Build-to-Sticker	Request-to-Sticker
-4.67	-0.58	-3.42	18x7.5 Granite Crystal Alum Wheels
0.38	-0.01	-2.96	Mopar Black Tubular Side Steps
-0.22	3.33	-2.43	Mopar Hd Rock Slider W/step Assist
-1.13	0.73	-2.19	Front Mopar Grab Handles
-1.13	0.73	-2.19	Mopar Grab Handle Kit
-1.51	-1.34	-2.16	3.6l V6 24v Vvt Etorque Engine Upg I
0.00	0.00	0.00	Spring - Left Front
2.38	1.33	2.01	Black Sunrider Soft Top
2.56	2.48	2.14	Uconnect 3 With 5" Display
5.23	4.79	2.16	Mopar Stitched Leather Black
1.93	1.00	2.86	Engine Block Heater
-0.07	2.55	2.90	Mopar Satin Black Grille
1.76	-0.43	3.02	245/75r17 All-terrain Tires
9.82	1.42	4.17	D1-to-d Regress
3.94	3.05	4.50	All Manual Transmissions
3.91	3.05	4.50	3.6l V6 24v Vvt Engine Upg I W/ess

Open Orders
Days since request, no build sheet nor sticker, request in the last 100 days
p20: 12
p40: 17
p60: 30
p80: 60
p90: 80
p95: 90
p100: 99

I appreciate this info. Thanks! Hey in the build chart we see for example p60 going from maybe 35% 40 days ago to maybe 22% now. Does that mean build time are slowing down (increase)? Conversely if we saw a positive slope at the right hand side of the chart it could mean build speed is increasing? I’m interpreting the p60 line to suggest a larger portion of the builds are falling outside the 60% group.

I might be confused… I’m an engineer not a statistician

 

[nomographer]

Here's something fun, though slightly mathematical, so feel free to skip back to dreaming about Jeeps rolling off the assembly line.

I stuffed the request-to-build numbers through a big probability matrix, taking into consideration most of the important properties and randomly checking a few others (remember there are a lot of redundant items on the build sheets), and found that 100 days of builds were: Firstly, not able to achieve a particularly accurate fit, averaging around 25% error in the days required to get the build sheet. Secondly, that 100 days were a relatively poor predictor of the next 20 days, with an average error of nearly 50%. (Different windows were checked as well with no particular improvement, but sometimes as good as 15%/35%.)

(The keen amongst you will recognize this as Bayesian probability modeling with linear regression, aka machine learning.)

While some of the properties were clear winners, and others subtle losers, there was a clear picture of numeric uncertainty in individual properties as well as any correlation affects. I decided to go back to basic statistics but this time from the perspective not of averages but standard deviations. Here are the standard deviations of all 736 properties, which shows roughly 600 properties associated with builds with a 5--35 day request-to-build standard deviation:

Now you may be thinking, "Oh but that means there are 75 properties accurate in the 0--5dy window!". Unfortunately, most of those are one-off entries, probably data entry errors or specific notes that appear on the builds. Let's take out anything with fewer than 30 appearances in the 2021 builds and show just the remaining 529 properties:

This means that most of the properties are not terribly good predictors of build times because there's a 70% chance that any individual build with such a property could be between 30dy 'faster' and 30dy 'slower'. (Note that statistics permits builds before requests, that is negative numbers, despite them having no meaning here.)

This seemed rather dubious so I checked a few properties. Here are the number of builds with the LED lighting group and the days to post the build sheet after the request. As can be seen, most are between 5dy and 45dy, but that's a 40-day-wide window:

Or consider something with a low standard deviation (11.5dy):

How about something more common like the manual transmission (15dy stddev):

IE, the manual is no guarantee of slowness. Based on this histogram we'd expect them to take "mostly between 10 and 50 days". So while we can say, "on average a manual transmission takes 4dy longer to post a build sheet (compared to the average for that model)", we must also say "plus or minus 15dy".

Here are the standard deviations in request-to-build times for the models:
14.2 2021 Jeep Wrangler Rubicon Unlimited
15.0 2021 Jeep Wrangler Sport
15.2 2021 Jeep Wrangler Sport Unlimited
15.7 2021 Jeep Wrangler Rubicon
16.0 2021 Jeep Wrangler Sahara Unlimited
25.5 2021 Jeep Wrangler Rubicon Unlimited 4xe Sport
27.6 2021 Jeep Wrangler Sahara Unlimited 4xe Sport
33.7 2021 Jeep Wrangler Rubicon Unlimited 392

Unsurprisingly, we are most confident in those that are built more often (central limit theorem blah blah), but even those are plus or minus two weeks. No property has a standard deviation under 10dy, and there's none under 14dy that are of particular interest (because they aren't frequent). Indeed, for those with at least 500 (out of ~4k) builds, the 14.2dy standard deviation for the Rubicon Unlimited is the lowest value in the list.


Conclusions: No collection of properties on individual builds is a good predictor of the number of days required to get the build sheet. While we can make some statistically-accurate statements about properties that are slower or faster, simply having that property is no guarantee of it being slower/faster. In most cases, we could give a 4-week window with 70% confidence but if you want 95% confidence you need an 8-week window.

Earlier posts show that there are some correlations with "very slow" builds (>100dy) for certain properties. Moreover, an initial check of "cross-referencing" the properties failed to give a good prediction of the next two weeks of builds. I plan to check whether or not builds are a good predictor of subsequent builds (but generally multiple models are posting builds on any given day). Otherwise, it may be fair to say that we lack the necessary data to predict when a build will appear; eg, we'd need to start harvesting automotive news articles, hourly traffic data from around the plant, etc.


Where shall I go from here? I didn't get too many responses about the utility of my weekly posts. Those are easy to provide when I'm in towne and hopefully provide some peace of mind about current build wait times.