JL Window Sticker and Build Sheet Order Tracking

nomographer

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Weekly update. Most seem to be getting built in the 30--40 day window.

Summary
Total records3399
Completed2738
Build started1737


Past Year
Request-to-Build daysBuild-to-Sticker daysRequest-to-Sticker days
30.310.846.2Overall
28.0Model 2021 Jeep Wrangler Rubicon Unlimited Rhd
29.95.741.7Model 2021 Jeep Wrangler Sport Unlimited
31.65.343.4Model 2021 Jeep Wrangler Sahara Unlimited
28.26.943.9Model 2021 Jeep Wrangler Rubicon Unlimited
32.16.544.0Model 2021 Jeep Wrangler Sport
33.79.445.7Model 2021 Jeep Wrangler Rubicon
34.04.849.0Model 2021 Jeep Wrangler Sport Unlimited Rhd
29.322.957.0Model 2021 Jeep Wrangler Sahara Unlimited 4xe Sport
30.025.657.3Model 2021 Jeep Wrangler Rubicon Unlimited 4xe Sport
61.415.983.1Model 2021 Jeep Wrangler Rubicon Unlimited 392
29.36.843.8Engine 3.0l Turbo
30.87.344.7Engine 3.6l Pentastar
29.815.549.1Engine 2.0l Turbo
61.415.983.1Engine 6.4l Hemi
29.36.543.5Doors 4
32.77.945.3Doors 2


Lag
(Relative to model average)
(Property appears in >2% of builds)
(Request-to-Sticker more than 2.0 days from average)
(Properties do not necessary cause delays; a related feature may be the culprit)
Request-to-BuildBuild-to-StickerRequest-to-Sticker
-3.95-0.51-4.1418x7.5 Granite Crystal Alum Wheels
-0.16-0.27-2.97Mopar Black Tubular Side Steps
-1.680.93-2.72Mopar Grab Handle Kit
-1.680.93-2.72Front Mopar Grab Handles
-1.560.79-2.53Rear Mopar Grab Handles
-1.68-1.39-2.193.6l V6 24v Vvt Etorque Engine Upg I
0.323.94-2.09Mopar Hd Rock Slider W/step Assist
0.000.000.00Spring - Left Front
1.681.382.86Engine Block Heater
-0.562.873.25Mopar Satin Black Grille
3.583.014.33All Manual Transmissions
3.563.014.333.6l V6 24v Vvt Engine Upg I W/ess
9.872.556.16D1-to-d Regress

percentiles-request-to-build.png


Open Orders
Days since request, no build sheet nor sticker, request in the last 100 days
p20: 10
p40: 19
p60: 32
p80: 54
p90: 75
p95: 81
p100: 99



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nomographer

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I've never been quite happy with the high percentiles for the open orders from the last 100 days, so I decided I would do some more looking.

First, of all orders ever that actually post a build or sticker, here's the percentage taking more than a given number of days:
rto.png


Some of the data shows very high numbers (7348 days for one of them!), which strongly suggests data quality issues. In particular, the "request dates" entered at registration are entirely voluntary and probably off by a few days for most orders. Some are even in the future, suggesting people don't even know what year they placed their order. :facepalm:

There are only 16 orders (in the data I've gathered from 2700 cryptostickers orders, or 0.58%) that took more than 180 days to show an update. At six months, it's not impossible in the last year given manufacturing delays and world crises, but everything above that is likely an outlier of some sort.

As far as "what properties are there for orders taking between 100 and 180 days", refer first to the usual chart of "Lag" in the weekly post, and otherwise I'll try get any additional details in a digestible fashion here in my spare time.
 

Woody77

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Ordered my 80th Anniversary JLU on 4/7
Vin# 4/10
Paint stage 4/26
KZ status 4/28
Dealer notified me this morning (5/1) that it was loaded on a truck at 5:33pm yesterday and should be delivered over the weekend.
I can't wait!!!! :D
My original estimated ship date was 4/27, so it was super close to that time frame...
So excited for you!! Hoping my jeep comes this week too!
 

nomographer

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Let's give this a try, defining "slow" as those orders that took more than 100 days from request to any update, consider features/properties ordered by "Relative slowness": IE, compared to all slow orders, how much more likely is the order to be slow if it has a given property.

A value of 1 (one) means it's equally likely to be slow (not interesting) and looks like this:

Likelihood overall, Relative slowness, P(slow), P(not slow)
100.00%1.06.83%93.17%Basics, year: 2021

That's good. All 2021 orders are present, and ordering a 2021 doesn't change the probability of being slow.

Values less than 1 are not interesting as they decrease the likelihood of a slow order. Values greater than 1 are interesting:

Likelihood overall, Relative slowness, Model
1.73%13.02021 Jeep Wrangler Rubicon Unlimited 392
4.04%1.42021 Jeep Wrangler Sahara Unlimited 4xe Sport
4.43%1.32021 Jeep Wrangler Rubicon Unlimited 4xe Sport

Likelihood overall, Relative slowness, Zone
0.10%14.6Zone 15-Chrysler Corporation-Misc
0.58%7.3Zone 05-Chrysler Military Sales
0.87%4.9Zone 25-Canada-Alberta
1.64%2.6Zone 21-Canada-Ontario
0.77%1.8Zone 22-Canada-Quebec
6.45%1.7Zone 63-Dallas
6.54%1.5Zone 70-Phoenix Arizona

Zone 15 seems to be part of the "Executive Lease Program" and is "fourteen times more likely to be slow if the order is part of Zone 15". Likewise, Canada orders are "1.8 to 4.9 times more likely to take more than 100 days to see a build or sticker".

Likelihood overall, Relative slowness, Engine
1.73%13.0Basics, engine: 6.4L Hemi
36.38%1.5Basics, engine: 2.0L Turbo

Good, that matches reality. Because of the launch of the Hemi and 392, they have a very high chance of being "slow". They were accepting orders long before they intended to start builds, so all such orders started with a 55--60day delay in the first place. Otherwise engine doesn't matter much.

Likelihood overall, Relative slowness, Trim
42.93%1.3Basics, trim: Sport
17.52%1.2Basics, trim: Sahara

Again, engine and trim don't really matter. Being 1.3 times as likely to be slow... could be anything and probably isn't caused by the trim.

So here's where it gets tough. There are lots of features that are part of packages, but of course we place orders based on features. I've tried to remove some things that are particularly non-interesting.

Likelihood overall, Relative slowness, P(slow), P(fast), Property
0.19%14.6100.00%0.00%Dual Door Group w/ Premium Uppers
0.19%14.6100.00%0.00%Half Doors w/ Uppers
0.10%14.6100.00%0.00%Executive Lease Program
1.15%13.491.67%8.33%Trailer Tow Package (but no Aux Switch issue?)
1.73%13.088.89%11.11%17X7.5 Beadlock Capable Wheels
1.73%13.088.89%11.11%6.4L V8 SRT HEMI MDS Engine
1.73%13.088.89%11.11%392 Badge (and all related)
0.29%9.866.67%33.33%MIC Fender Flares (2PCS FRT/1PC RR)
0.58%7.350.00%50.00%Export O.M.S.C. U.S. Specifications
0.38%7.350.00%50.00%Daytime Running Headlamps, Low Beam (Canada req?)
0.58%4.933.33%66.67%MOPAR Windshield Tie Down
0.29%4.933.33%66.67%Employee Purchase
0.29%4.933.33%66.67%No Satellite Coverage HI/AK/PR/VI/GU
6.45%3.725.37%74.63%Wizard Black Instrument Panel Bezels
0.77%3.725.00%75.00%Nacho Clear Coat
10.20%3.322.64%77.36%Active Noise Control System
3.27%3.020.59%79.41%Canada Country Code
10.78%2.718.75%81.25%2.72:1 Selec-Trac Full Time 4WD Sys
10.78%2.718.75%81.25%8-Spd Auto 8HP75 Trans (Buy-Germany)
10.78%2.718.75%81.25%Non-Lock Fuel Cap w/ Discriminator
1.54%2.718.75%81.25%Ontario Province Code
0.58%2.416.67%83.33%MOPAR Chrome Tube Steps
0.58%2.416.67%83.33%Mopar Solid Sunbonnet Top
13.28%2.114.49%85.51%220 Amp Alternator (not the 240)
17.42%2.114.36%85.64%3.73 Rear Axle Ratio
100.00%1.06.83%93.17%Basics, year: 2021

What this tells me is: Canada will be slow (correlates with thread stories). The half doors were accepting orders a month or two before they had them ready, and delayed the entire order. The trailer tow is weird (but the standard Aux Switches are part of the "Trailer Tow and HD Electrical Group" which is different). The beadlock capable wheel, probably part of the 392.

More interesting, perhaps: Mopar windshield tie down. Wizard black instrument bezels. Nacho (accepting orders before available?). The chrome tube steps, the sunbonnet. So yes, if you ordered a (solid) sunbonnet with your build, you were 2.4 times as likely to have at least a 100 day wait between the order and any build sheet / window sticker update. (Of course maybe it's because everyone who ordered a sunbonnet ordered a 392.)

The lag chart in the weekly post seems fairly accurate as far as standard build feature delays. This list is... perhaps not that surprising because it says there are very few things that drastically increase your odds of having a slow order. In a sense it's entirely luck or something we can't track.

I didn't include the 1--2 range here because the list is much longer, but something being "1.1 times as likely" doesn't mean much with this data. Just a few examples
6.26%1.812.31%87.69%Cargo Compartment Floor Mat
19.44%1.711.39%88.61%Steel Bumper Group
4.23%1.711.36%88.64%D1-To-D Regress
4.23%1.711.36%88.64%Hydro Blue Pearl Coat
19.35%1.49.45%90.55%Body Color 3-Piece Hard Top
30.32%1.38.57%91.43%Advanced Safety Group
1.15%1.28.33%91.67%Mopar Mesh Sunbonnet Top

Of these, however, note that only the regress (which we can't detect until the build sheet posts) matches the weekly lag list. The other items don't impact "most" orders significantly, but this does say that the body colored hard top, for example, is just a little bit more likely to take forever (but again, it could be because people ordering 392s are more likely to order the colored hard top, for example).

I'll leave this here for now. Thoughts?
 

ToothMechanic

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Ordered 3/23, built 4/4(ish), delivered 4/27 after a shipping delay

Picked it up this weekend. I love it!

Travis at TriCity Jeep in NC was great. 6% off invoice. 499 dealer fee and no nonsense.

Already had more fun with it in a couple days than I would have in an entire lifetime with a Kia or something....


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dirtybytes

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Hi folks! Re: the automated window sticker tracker tool, it appears that it's getting the same info we could manually grab via the respective build sheet / window sticker links, by supplying our respective vin# in the URL query. That said I received an email from CryptoStickers.net this morning around 11am pacific stating that the window sticker had been found, and show's "FOUND" on the tracker window sticker column, but the FOUN(view) link shows the same " Sorry, a Window Sticker is unavailable for this VIN " still.

Anyone else experience this? Any idea where that "update" the tracker tool found came from?
 

PierreNL

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Hi folks! Re: the automated window sticker tracker tool, it appears that it's getting the same info we could manually grab via the respective build sheet / window sticker links, by supplying our respective vin# in the URL query. That said I received an email from CryptoStickers.net this morning around 11am pacific stating that the window sticker had been found, and show's "FOUND" on the tracker window sticker column, but the FOUN(view) link shows the same " Sorry, a Window Sticker is unavailable for this VIN " still.

Anyone else experience this? Any idea where that "update" the tracker tool found came from?
I get the same message.
But on Canadian site I found my sticker
 

Tab

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Hi folks! Re: the automated window sticker tracker tool, it appears that it's getting the same info we could manually grab via the respective build sheet / window sticker links, by supplying our respective vin# in the URL query. That said I received an email from CryptoStickers.net this morning around 11am pacific stating that the window sticker had been found, and show's "FOUND" on the tracker window sticker column, but the FOUN(view) link shows the same " Sorry, a Window Sticker is unavailable for this VIN " still.

Anyone else experience this? Any idea where that "update" the tracker tool found came from?
Mine did that the other morning and an hour later it showed up
 

nomographer

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See, the window sticker gets sent to the database and cryptostickers sees it and announces it to you, but their printing system removes it from that database to send it to the printers so by the time you go check online it's missing. Then after they stuff the printout in the bag of goodies, they click the button to validate QA/completion and it gets entered in the permanent database and shows back up online. :bandit:
 

griffinm

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Hi folks! Re: the automated window sticker tracker tool, it appears that it's getting the same info we could manually grab via the respective build sheet / window sticker links, by supplying our respective vin# in the URL query. That said I received an email from CryptoStickers.net this morning around 11am pacific stating that the window sticker had been found, and show's "FOUND" on the tracker window sticker column, but the FOUN(view) link shows the same " Sorry, a Window Sticker is unavailable for this VIN " still.

Anyone else experience this? Any idea where that "update" the tracker tool found came from?
Happened to me last week as well. I saved a copy of the first window sticker and when it showed back up, I did a compare between the new one and original. I noticed that there was one minor change. There’s a number in the lower left of the window sticker under a heading called “S.L.” On the first sticker posted, that number read 0428-0. On the second sticker, the number read 0429-3. I believe the first four digits represent the month and day - ie April 28th and 29th. That’s around the time my Jeep build was completed (I think). Not sure what the number after the dash represents … or why the number changed and a new sheet was posted. Inquiring minds want to know. Since I’m waiting around for my Jeep to makes it’s slow journey to the dealership, I have time to ponder these oddities.
 

jadewolf

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Well, skunked this weekend on receiving my Jeep. Dealer texted, said he thinks Monday or Tuesday. 56 days of waiting so far.

At this point, I'm going to come crawling into the dealership like I've been marooned in the desert for a month without water.

jeep-desert.jpg
 

Snazzberry

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Well, skunked this weekend on receiving my Jeep. Dealer texted, said he thinks Monday or Tuesday. 56 days of waiting so far.

At this point, I'm going to come crawling into the dealership like I've been marooned in the desert for a month without water.

jeep-desert.jpg
I found out Wednesday that I was going to be able to pick it up Thursday but on the way to the dealership the truck carrying the Jeeps broke down so I had to wait until Friday. Longest day ever! But it was worth it. Good luck! hope you get your Jeep soon
 

ynygma

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Just got this info:

I am showing that your vehicle is in the shipping stage. Current Dealer ETA is 05/07/2021 - 05/21/2021 Please reach out to the Selling Dealer as they may have a more accurate date of arrival or status for you.

😊
 

Chazdog

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Just got this info:

I am showing that your vehicle is in the shipping stage. Current Dealer ETA is 05/07/2021 - 05/21/2021 Please reach out to the Selling Dealer as they may have a more accurate date of arrival or status for you.

😊
I received the same exact response from Jeep Chat this morning, which was unexpected considering I ordered only 2 weeks ago (4/17). The sticker tracker confirmed this status with the sticker as well as equipment listing. I just hope all of this chatter here about price hikes doesn't affect my deal.
 

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