Jeep owners probably most prepared for Corona Virus

[viper88]

There is momentum. I would take a hint from other countries. There will be dynamic changes hourly and daily. At this point Who knows what CDC or White House will announce next? More travel restrictions? Isolating "hot" areas or Cities?

The last few days more and more major events and sports are cancelled. Travel restrictions. Some companies are preparing to do 2-week self quarantine drills. Public gatherings are not encouraged.

This changed today... A LOT more businesses, corporations are asking employees to stay home and work from home. In person meetings are cancelled. Offices are shutting down. Google's Chicago office shut down today. McDonald's shut down. Others are following. Major Universities and schools are canceling classes and trying online classes. Major Universities are clearing out student dorms and refunding housing and meal plans. Chicago area highways seemed noticeably less crowded today. Probably due to more employees staying home?

There are definitely more people shopping today. In the Chicago area some shelves are empty of disinfectant, toilet paper, food items. Costco was totally out of a lot of items like frozen foods. It was not just Costco. Many grocery stores had totally empty shelves for likely items. I have never ever seen this before in the United States. Honestly it was kind of creepy. The empty stores shelves and freezers looked like what you would see in post apocalyptic movies. I think this is part to due with the recent announcements from companies requesting employees to stay home. People are starting to see the writing on the walls. They are stocking up. I think it's obvious a self quarantine or social distancing will be encouraged.

I'd stock up on a few items. Worst case you have a few weeks of extra food and supplies you will eat and use anyways.

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[Avar928]

Just to provide more clarity, the often cited "3.4% fatality rate" is largely considered by the WHO a crude rate and that the overall fatality rate will be much lower when we take into account all infected individuals including those showing very mild or no symptoms but are carriers. HHS officials surmise a final rate of 0.1-1%. Ubiquitous testing is necessary to quarantine infected and keep high-risk groups safe while lessening the economic impact and disruptions. South Korea has capacity to test 20,000 cases a day within 6hrs and has a fatality rate of 0.7% despite having the now third most cases present. Japan has an elderly population comprising 33% of the nation (~26% over age of 65) and has a rate of 2.4% compared to Italy that has a 6.7% rate with a ~23% population of over 65. Interesting to note also Italy has half the population of Japan yet 22x more confirmed cases. Healthcare systems in Japan are more efficient and the culture more nuanced to social distance are factors into this disparity. EDIT: I also wonder how reaction would change if we inverted the statistics - you have a 96.6% chance of survival based on reported average with a probable revision to 99-99.9% survivability.

The flu is easier to contain because onset of symptoms are quicker, incubation of 2 days on average compared to Covid's 5 days. Given the season as well where mild symptoms of 80% of cases resemble seasonal flu and endemic cold virus, and the fact that testing is still very privileged in the US because of availability and criteria, the infection rate in the US is likely 10x higher than current because of asymptomatic individuals (who in one study can be infectious for up to 3 weeks) and mild cases not getting tested. Flattening the curve is important in respect to not exhausting the healthcare system. However, the area under the curve remains the same so the number of cases to develop will remain the same just spread out. Precautions are being taken to slow the transmission but health officials are preparing for the fact that you will get it some time in your lifetime either this year or next year. Hopefully by then we can vaccinate the high risk groups or have anti-virals in enough supply to treat them early so the mortality is lower. Any percentage of a big number is still a big number in human life. Eventually herd immunity will be established, if a vaccine can't be created while the infection continues to spread, when more than 50% of people get it and recover from it to slow it down.

Here at home we're in a very big dilemma as businesses are suffering from the measures needed to slow the spread, yet the other side of the coin - testing - is not being addressed fast enough. Why is that the most technologically advanced nation has had an abysmal response to the infection with test kits still in limbo on reliability and only testing those with severe enough symptoms? Not to mention only a few states are mandating covered testing and you'll be hit with almost $3,000 in bills (while in Korea, testing is $130 and covered by half insurance, or free if you test positive...and they can do 20,000 a day compared to barely 8,000 tests done to date here in the US (also to note you can be sick but still be denied testing). The uncertainty is driving mass hysteria, and that uncertainty and our inability to clarify it will contribute to what some officials say will be up to 150m infected in the US alone. If we can't even accurately test how will we know our measures are actually working? At what point will this end and what are the consequences from the response we affected? Or will this not end and become endemic and no matter what amount of toilet paper you purchase you're just going to get it when you get tired of the fear and go back to your normal routine? One important key note is unemployment contributes to higher suicide rates so social distancing and avoiding economic stimulation, while has near term compassion, may have longer term effects that need to be studied. Sometimes the response to a situation comes out to be deadlier than the thing it's trying to avoid.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/s...d-the-coronavirus-test/ar-BB117d9s?li=BBnb7Kz
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32146694
https://www.who.int/docs/default-so...H0073A3wdi5O4MfEFf6_zmmBhdsvERcWqn8-XGAmcuT_c
https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2020/3/12/21175034/coronavirus-covid-19-testing-usa
https://asiatimes.com/2020/03/why-are-koreas-covid-19-death-rates-so-low/

EDIT: I will make this concession regarding my comment on area under the curve as seen above, which was made under my understanding and consultation and agreement with friends and former colleagues who have PhDs in biology and statistics, in light of Dr. Fauci's stating that the area will actually decrease and total cases drop (15 May interview with Fox News) in later posts. I cannot obviously nit pick a health expert I am citing so I do stand corrected on that as there was context missing.

 

[wibornz]

I am taking the Jeep up into the woods again this weekend.

 

[Dkretden]

WSJ requires a subscription...

Even on Apple news? There is all the subscription stuff in the header but I think that the story still appears below?

 

[four low]

Even on Apple news? There is all the subscription stuff in the header but I think that the story still appears below?

The story opens in Apple news, but reverts to Subscription required, on my Google tablet

 

[four low]

I am taking the Jeep up into the woods again this weekend.

Eventually, you have to come out of the Woods; the Virus will be in the resevoir population for a long time. Social Distancing for a year, maybe, until a Vaccine is available...

 

[viper88]

You will not be able to do your normal routines. There will be a new norm starting very soon.

How much of a hint do you need? Writing is on the walls for what is going to happen as far as social distancing and self quarantine. Here in Chicago at least.

Almost every company is asking employees to work from home indefinitely. Major medical supply companies, pharmaceutical companies all have told employees to work from indefinitely. ComEd has a meeting with employees this am. I suspect they will ask all nonessential employees to work from home. Schools will follow. Universities are canceling classroom sessions and going online. Refunds are being issued for room, board, meal plans because the schools are clearing out the dorms. Kids are being sent home.

Museums, zoos, and other venues with large gatherings are closing.

Hype or not offices are shutting down. Business will close. There will be interruptions to normal life. You will need supplies and food.

 

[weeitsmikelee]

This is probably going to be my only post on this subject because of the frustration of it.

It pisses me off to read all of the BS about this virus. I'm a healthcare professional who is on the front-lines of this crap all frickin' day long. It's exhausting!!! I receive official updates twice a day from the CDC, NIH and the State of Texas Department of Health Services. The media has well OVER-HYPED all of it and instilled panic for nearly everyone. Where was the panic and hysteria with the swine flu (H1N1)...or SARS...or MERS??? Worldwide, about 600K people died from H1N1. All of those viruses are a derivative or some facsimile of a corona virus...along with the common cold and the other various types of the flu that are already out there. Granted, this is a new virus and yes, it needs to be taken seriously...BUT...it is just another form of the flu. FOLLOW STANDARD PRECAUTIONS!!! Man has no cure for any known virus...only treatments and vaccines. Treatments for this virus IS THE SAME AS THE FLU PER THE CDC...over the counter medications along with hydration and rest. And, per WHO (World Health Organization), approximately 80% of those who become infected with COVID-19 will only experience mild symptoms. What fatalities that have already occurred are of persons with a depressed immune system and/or underlying CHRONIC health conditions or generally greater than 80 years of age. This is generally the same MO as a regular flu outbreak.

This year, the flu will infect up to 45 million people worldwide and as many as 60,000 are expected to die. About 6.5 million of those are in the USA along with around 3,000 deaths so far. It is also a corona virus...with no cure...only treatments and/or a vaccine. There certainly doesn't appear to be much of a concern in the news with all of those infections and deaths, huh. This year's flu vaccine covered 3 strains of type A & B flu...H1N1, H2N3 and a B/Victoria strain. Look...COVID-19 is going to be here to stay and it is most likely going to be a seasonal virus just like the flu. My recommendations (not that everyone wants my .02 cents) for everyone is the same as the CDC's and is what we tell everyone we see...wash your hands...cover your mouth if you cough or sneeze...as hard as it may be, try not to touch your face...and stay at home if you're frickin' sick. Medicate with OTC meds you can get at a local drugstore.

Otherwise -- everyone needs to just frickin' smoke a doobie, relax and don't panic. Panicking causes things to become out of control...like they are now. It serves no one any good. But, in time, this will run its course.

73s...I'm out!

Please don’t spread misinformation. There’s a huge gap between keeping calm and willful ignorance. Covid19 is simply not the same respiratory disease as the flu.

As other members have posted, incubation periods are different, Covid19 is more viable on surfaces and more transmissible by a minimum of 3x. Some carriers are also non symptomatic or have symptoms so minor it can be misattributed to allergies or the flu. As you stated, there is no vaccine so even by the most carefree approximations it is deadlier than the flu (especially the elderly and compromised).

It’s not cause for panic, but it’s more reason to educate the public and inform them how good hygiene and some personal responsibility can help control this. The amount of people who’ve told me they’ve started washing their hands seems to imply they didn’t when it was just regular flu season.

 

[Notorious]

...Some carriers are also non symptomatic or have symptoms so minor it can be misattributed to allergies or the flu...It’s not cause for panic, but it’s more reason to educate the public and inform them...

Well said!

 

[Notorious]

....

People don’t know what they don’t know. Given that the disease is asymptomatic, it’s most likely already in the population. Quarantine isn’t the answer.

Good hygiene and staying at home if you’re sick. Treat this like the flu since you will most likely recover if you get it.

 

[viper88]

Lot of people will be home. There will probably be a uptick in forum traffic.

 

[W5MQS]

Please don’t spread misinformation.

There is no misinformation in what I have talked about. The media has perpetuated panic and fear with this. What I have discussed has come from the CDC, the NIH and my own state's Department of Health Services. Again...I'm dealing with these patients on a daily basis and I must be very much aware of what is fact and what is fiction about COVID-19 for my own safety and the safety of those I treat...probably more so than the general public.

 

[Avar928]

Please don’t spread misinformation. There’s a huge gap between keeping calm and willful ignorance. Covid19 is simply not the same respiratory disease as the flu.

As other members have posted, incubation periods are different, Covid19 is more viable on surfaces and more transmissible by a minimum of 3x. Some carriers are also non symptomatic or have symptoms so minor it can be misattributed to allergies or the flu. As you stated, there is no vaccine so even by the most carefree approximations it is deadlier than the flu (especially the elderly and compromised).

It’s not cause for panic, but it’s more reason to educate the public and inform them how good hygiene and some personal responsibility can help control this. The amount of people who’ve told me they’ve started washing their hands seems to imply they didn’t when it was just regular flu season.

I think it's personally silly how proper hygiene is just now a revelation for many despite being common sense for pretty much ever. I think everyone needs to take a microbiology class, mandate it starting in HS and one more in college. I have my Master's in Biotechnology. You'll be afraid of everything. Mother nature is a bitch. She wants to use you as a vessel for propagating diversity and life even if that means you as an individual die...BUT she's given you the tools to be very robust. Your average immune system fights off so many infections a day without you realizing it. All that mud and dirt on our Jeeps are breeding grounds for infectious microbes looking for an opportunity to be inside you. The problem with living a fully sanitized life is that your body needs to be primed to fight infection and the only way to do that is to get sick or be exposed. Your body wants to fight something. A rise in regular allergies in children is being studied for links in the pervasive use of hand sanitizer. Allergies by definition are "stupid" in the sense that your body picks something completely benign and makes you miserable and in some cases kills you over it just because it's there. We need a balance of being clean and healthily dirty. And we're all hypocrites in the end. Clean in the streets but dirty in the sheets. Epidemiologists know the things you do in the bedroom, don't lie.

For me, the panic is overblown but the responses are necessary - albeit extreme - to slow it down so the healthcare system can manage. Getting the flu sucks for the young, old, immunocompromised and worries people every year. Having Covid-19 and the flu around is a double whammy. Media sensationalism however has made this worse than it actually is. Flip the statistics, you have a 96.6% survivability at WORST and that's based on crude numbers. You tell someone they have a 96.6% of getting up a trail at the worst and 10/10 Jeepers will take those odds. You tell someone they are 10x more likely to not but withhold the context and you'll sow fear and doubt.

The fact is health experts agree you are going to get it eventually and you will very likely survive and be fine. Stay clean, live your life, stay home if you're sick, Skype your grandparents for now, support local businesses still. If you get worse see your doctor. In 1-2 years this will be a memory and we'll be back to doing things normally but for the love of all wash your hands and don't touch your face.

 

[NMPirate]

I think it's personally silly how proper hygiene is just now a revelation for many despite being common sense for pretty much ever. I think everyone needs to take a microbiology class, mandate it starting in HS and one more in college. I have my Master's in Biotechnology. You'll be afraid of everything. Mother nature is a bitch. She wants to use you as a vessel for propagating diversity and life even if that means you as an individual die...BUT she's given you the tools to be very robust. Your average immune system fights off so many infections a day without you realizing it. All that mud and dirt on our Jeeps are breeding grounds for infectious microbes looking for an opportunity to be inside you. The problem with living a fully sanitized life is that your body needs to be primed to fight infection and the only way to do that is to get sick or be exposed. Your body wants to fight something. A rise in regular allergies in children is being studied for links in the pervasive use of hand sanitizer. Allergies by definition are "stupid" in the sense that your body picks something completely benign and makes you miserable and in some cases kills you over it just because it's there. We need a balance of being clean and healthily dirty. And we're all hypocrites in the end. Clean in the streets but dirty in the sheets. Epidemiologists know the things you do in the bedroom, don't lie.

For me, the panic is overblown but the responses are necessary - albeit extreme - to slow it down so the healthcare system can manage. Getting the flu sucks for the young, old, immunocompromised and worries people every year. Having Covid-19 and the flu around is a double whammy. Media sensationalism however has made this worse than it actually is. Flip the statistics, you have a 96.6% survivability at WORST and that's based on crude numbers. You tell someone they have a 96.6% of getting up a trail at the worst and 10/10 Jeepers will take those odds. You tell someone they are 10x more likely to not but withhold the context and you'll sow fear and doubt.

The fact is health experts agree you are going to get it eventually and you will very likely survive and be fine. Stay clean, live your life, stay home if you're sick, Skype your grandparents for now, support local businesses still. If you get worse see your doctor. In 1-2 years this will be a memory and we'll be back to doing things normally but for the love of all wash your hands and don't touch your face.

I cannot give this enough thumbs up and likes! Please stop the panic and wash your hands for a change and live your life!

 

[Avar928]

This is all an exercise of how as a nation our healthcare sucks and disaster preparedness is abysmal now. We're getting beat out by Asia and Europe in testing. Why can't they go to South Korea and collaborate? Why did we have to create our own from scratch? They have drive-through test centers bolstering their capacity to test 20,000 a day over there! That deserves a beer raise in efficiency and proper response. We don't know if our social distancing is working because we can't test to find out how it's actually spreading. We're beyond containment at this point, it's now managing it so our hospitals aren't overrun and the people who really NEED to be there have access to life-saving expertise. But again, we need to have the testing in place to show we're slowing it down otherwise you have asymptomatic folks infecting everyone and creating fomites so that the next time you go out and hoard toilet paper you're breathing in the same air some carrier exhaled out 30 seconds ago picking up the second to last box of Charmin.

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