Jeep owners probably most prepared for Corona Virus

[ResponsibleAdult]

Well, as I mentioned earlier, COVID-19 is for real & the flu has been no joke this season either. Fortunately for most of us on this forum, we live in the USA. A lot of reason for the "high" death tolls in these pandemic & epidemic illnesses, is due to the healthcare in certain countries of the world. What I mean by this is those countries either don't have good medical facilities & healthcare in general, or the government of that country gets to tell who gets to survive & who doesn't. Take the dictatorships, communist, & most socialist countries out there, their government decides who gets the healthcare & who doesn't. So, you see those countries are holding the healthcare only for their elite. So, you're always going to see higher death tolls in those countries. Just like the under developed countries, they are going to have high death tolls. So, there is a lot to be extrapolated from the numbers.

My advice at this point is, if you are worried about Corona Virus, go get you an N95 mask for each person in your family, while you still can. They are flying off the shelves & hospitals & EMS agencies are buying them up to surplus for their personnel. Then just be careful, use some common sense, & you & your family should be just fine.

Don't get caught up in the sensationalism of the news media & don't get hung up on the numbers. Play it smart & we will all be fine.

My 2 cents of being involved in the medical field for over 26 years & being in my current "job" position.

Not an accurate description of publicly funded healthcare.

Signed,

A Canadian

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[@minutemen]

@Dkretden Hey Dave, would you mind sharing a few of the sources you use to keep up with this? You seem to present factual information and I like facts

 

[Kidder212]

I under the toilet paper: One person sneezes, 100 people shit them selves. This maybe the mindset set for portable water

 

[Dkretden]

@Dkretden Hey Dave, would you mind sharing a few of the sources you use to keep up with this? You seem to present factual information and I like facts

Well, there are a few.

try worldometers.... https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ and after the running tallies of infections and deaths, there is a very good section on “news” with the source. Some of the sources are in foreign languages but most are in English.

the Johns Hopkins site is also very good.

that said, my real source of information is my retired, engineer wife who is a math nerd and is using this pandemic to really try to learn the science and statistical models that underpin pandemics. She is watching all the press conferences from the CDC, folks in Washington DC, Washington State, and foreign countries too. She is reading research papers published by scientists in the US and abroad. .....She is obviously not a doctor but she is a smart little cookie.

there is zero need to panic and hoard, IMO. There is a 100% need to wash hands and social distance NOW. The next 10-20 days will decide, it seems, if the US will follow the Korea curve and be able to put this into a box or if it will follow the Italian curve and, literally, overwhelm the medical system to the point where doctors are triaging patients and denying care for some given their age and comorbidity profile.

The Trump administration (this is a non-partisan statement) has pretty badly bungled the response so far — many scientists would tell you that what is finally happening at the federal level should have happened 2 weeks ago. We may still be able to get this into a box. Maybe not. Time will tell.

does 2 weeks matter? Think about this.... look at Italy’s log chart for deaths (on the worldometer site). About 9 days ago, they had about 100 deaths.... tiny, right? Why worry, right? Car crashes kill more, right? Now they have 1,000 and their system can’t cope. The slope of the line is straight. Unless they can bend it, they will have 10,000 dead in a week or two..... and 100,000 within a few weeks/month thereafter......

With an R0 greater than 1 (COVID is something like 2.4-ish) —- the spread of the disease is NOT linear .... rather, it’s exponential. And, I hate to say this but, if you look at Italy’s curve from “day one” and compare it to the US, they seem to track...... that’s not a good sign for the US. It would imply that we are behind — about 2 weeks behind.....

To Bend the curve in the US starting now, we all need to take personal responsibility....... wash hands and social distance. Not all that complicated and super easy for each of us to do. If we all do this, will it work to bend the curve? Don’t know but probably. If we don’t do it will several million people in the US die? Don’t know but maybe.

is this federal congressional doctor being alarmist? Maybe. But if 100m people in the US get COVID-19 then about 15m will need critical care beds —- we don’t have that capacity. So, The death rate will not be the 1% in Korea. We will need to triage and by definition the death rate will be higher. Pick a number...... use the WHO estimate.......3.4%..........are we ready for 3m Americans dying in the 8-12 months from this? But what if the death rate is more like Italy’s....... 8%-ish...... 8m Americans?

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/heal...00-spread-n1155241/ncrd1155736#liveBlogHeader

 

[chacomaya]

Well, there are a few.

try worldometers.... https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ and after the running tallies of infections and deaths, there is a very good section on “news” with the source. Some of the sources are in foreign languages but most are in English.

the Johns Hopkins site is also very good.

that said, my real source of information is my retired, engineer wife who is a math nerd and is using this pandemic to really try to learn the science and statistical models that underpin pandemics. She is watching all the press conferences from the CDC, folks in Washington DC, Washington State, and foreign countries too. She is reading research papers published by scientists in the US and abroad. .....She is obviously not a doctor but she is a smart little cookie.

there is zero need to panic and hoard, IMO. There is a 100% need to wash hands and social distance NOW. The next 10-20 days will decide, it seems, if the US will follow the Korea curve and be able to put this into a box or if it will follow the Italian curve and, literally, overwhelm the medical system to the point where doctors are triaging patients and denying care for some given their age and comorbidity profile.

The Trump administration (this is a non-partisan statement) has pretty badly bungled the response so far — many scientists would tell you that what is finally happening at the federal level should have happened 2 weeks ago. We may still be able to get this into a box. Maybe not. Time will tell.

does 2 weeks matter? Think about this.... look at Italy’s log chart for deaths (on the worldometer site). About 9 days ago, they had about 100 deaths.... tiny, right? Why worry, right? Car crashes kill more, right? Now they have 1,000 and their system can’t cope. The slope of the line is straight. Unless they can bend it, they will have 10,000 dead in a week or two..... and 100,000 within a few weeks/month thereafter......

With an R0 greater than 1 (COVID is something like 2.4-ish) —- the spread of the disease is NOT linear .... rather, it’s exponential. And, I hate to say this but, if you look at Italy’s curve from “day one” and compare it to the US, they seem to track...... that’s not a good sign for the US. It would imply that we are behind — about 2 weeks behind.....

To Bend the curve in the US starting now, we all need to take personal responsibility....... wash hands and social distance. Not all that complicated and super easy for each of us to do. If we all do this, will it work to bend the curve? Don’t know but probably. If we don’t do it will several million people in the US die? Don’t know but maybe.

is this federal congressional doctor being alarmist? Maybe. But if 100m people in the US get COVID-19 then about 15m will need critical care beds —- we don’t have that capacity. So, The death rate will not be the 1% in Korea. We will need to triage and by definition the death rate will be higher. Pick a number...... use the WHO estimate.......3.4%..........are we ready for 3m Americans dying in the 8-12 months from this? But what if the death rate is more like Italy’s....... 8%-ish...... 8m Americans?

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/heal...00-spread-n1155241/ncrd1155736#liveBlogHeader

Well said. My wife is a hospital medicine internist who works on the front lines of this, and she'd be the first to confirm what you've said. I'm not a doctor, but I am a biologist who has worked in pharma and in cell biology, including work with viral transfection of mammalian cells, so my perspective is from that angle. If anything, my perspective is even more pessimistic than my wife's that we are going to be able to avoid an Italy-like situation. It is still possible, but there is a fair bit of misinformation being spread and enough dismissiveness that I have my doubts. I'll check out that worldometer site you mention. And I'll second your recommendation of going to the CDC and Johns Hopkins as good information sources and would add the WHO.

 

[jdubya421]

Let’s think about this.............60,000 cases total in China out of 1.4 billion people. 120,000 cases and 4000 dead 8 billion people on the planet. 60,000 died in the USA for the flu last year. Do the math. I’ll bet our chance of dying in a motor vehicle accident are twice as likely as dying from COVID-19.

Let's think about this ..... covid19 has been around for 3 months.

 

[weeitsmikelee]

Well, as I mentioned earlier, COVID-19 is for real & the flu has been no joke this season either. Fortunately for most of us on this forum, we live in the USA. A lot of reason for the "high" death tolls in these pandemic & epidemic illnesses, is due to the healthcare in certain countries of the world. What I mean by this is those countries either don't have good medical facilities & healthcare in general, or the government of that country gets to tell who gets to survive & who doesn't. Take the dictatorships, communist, & most socialist countries out there, their government decides who gets the healthcare & who doesn't. So, you see those countries are holding the healthcare only for their elite. So, you're always going to see higher death tolls in those countries. Just like the under developed countries, they are going to have high death tolls. So, there is a lot to be extrapolated from the numbers.

My advice at this point is, if you are worried about Corona Virus, go get you an N95 mask for each person in your family, while you still can. They are flying off the shelves & hospitals & EMS agencies are buying them up to surplus for their personnel. Then just be careful, use some common sense, & you & your family should be just fine.

Don't get caught up in the sensationalism of the news media & don't get hung up on the numbers. Play it smart & we will all be fine.

My 2 cents of being involved in the medical field for over 26 years & being in my current "job" position.

Work in healthcare and we’re only as strong as our weakest link. Just a reminder that N95 masks need to be fitted properly in order to be effective. Also, it’s more of a priority for first responders and medical personnel to have these as they are in contact with the most vulnerable and are needed to treat all of us. Agree that sensationalism and panic doesn’t help.

Following good hygiene/ cleaning practices and avoiding crowds goes a long way.

 

[jdubya421]

Work in healthcare and we’re only as strong as our weakest link. Just a reminder that N95 masks need to be fitted properly in order to be effective. Also, it’s more of a priority for first responders and medical personnel to have these as they are in contact with the most vulnerable and are needed to treat all of us. Agree that sensationalism and panic doesn’t help.

Following good hygiene/ cleaning practices and avoiding crowds goes a long way.

I think something else that doesn't help is the constant repeat of "it's just a bad cold/it's just the flu". Minimizing this problem isn't helping. When people say this I wonder if they've even had the flu - it fucking sucks. You are for sure out of work for a couple days. People keep quoting that it is 1. "Just the flu" and 2. "The flu kills more". Alright well pick a narrative and stick to it, because those two things kind of contradict each other. Stop trying to seem cool and disconnected and wash your hands.

 

[weeitsmikelee]

I think something else that doesn't help is the constant repeat of "it's just a bad cold/it's just the flu". Minimizing this problem isn't helping. When people say this I wonder if they've even had the flu - it fucking sucks. You are for sure out of work for a couple days. People keep quoting that it is 1. "Just the flu" and 2. "The flu kills more". Alright well pick a narrative and stick to it, because those two things kind of contradict each other. Stop trying to seem cool and disconnected and wash your hands.

You’re right. The flu has a low mortality rate. This virus is significantly more lethal. Healthy persons or those not at high risk can still transmit to the vulnerable population (elderly, sick, compromised respiratory system).

Definitely wash hands, cover mouth and nose when coughing/ sneezing and avoid unnecessary gatherings.

 

[chrizow]

It also doesn't help that Fox and right-wing media and politicians are down-playing the virus (including our own president saying it's a hoax as recently as last week) and luring people into a false sense of security. No need to "panic" but there is a need to take action, prepare, learn about the virus, and take what steps we can to mitigate and contain it.

Based upon what we know right now, the virus appears much more deadly than the flu (anywhere from 10-30x) and, unlike the flu, there is no vaccine, treatment, or built-in immunity to it. Angela Merkel, not exactly someone known for hyperbole, says Germany is bracing for 70% of its population to be infected. If that occurs, even with a "low" mortality rate of 1-2%, you're talking about hundreds of thousands or over a million deaths just in that country. Even if it's 20% vs. 70%, it's a massive problem.

As far as other countries' healthcare systems, I think people are going to be in for a rude awakening for the strain this virus will put on our healthcare system. As others have said, we simply do not have the hospital capacity to deal with it (no country does) and clearly we are weeks if not months behind on testing and putting protocols in place to address the problem. Things will be exacerbated when people start being jerked around by their insurance companies and having to pay out of pocket for testing and treatment--or rejecting testing and treatment because it is out of pocket. These basic services which should be easily accessible and free in order to adequately address the outbreak, simply will not be, and it will make the outbreak even worse.

 

[Rogues Gambit]

 

[chrizow]

I definitely hope people will listen to doctors, epidemiologists, virologists, and public health experts when evaluating this issue vs. listening to complete idiots like Rudy Giuliani or Sean Hannity....but this is 'Merica and I know how 'Mericans deal with facts and experts, since half the country gets their "news" from right-wing memes.

 

[Rogues Gambit]

I definitely hope people will listen to doctors, epidemiologists, virologists, and public health experts when evaluating this issue vs. listening to complete idiots like Rudy Giuliani or Sean Hannity....but this is 'Merica and I know how 'Mericans deal with facts and experts.

And what part of this great country are you from, Chris?

 

[@minutemen]

Thanks for the links @Dkretden. Panic accomplishes nothing so you are right, there is absolutely no need for that. Keywords are proper handwashing and avoiding social interactions as has been stated many times. Regarding the US response, it would seem that at this point it's too late for an offensive strategy and most likely even too late for defensive strategies as well. It's mainly containment and trying to limit the casualties. Enforced social distancing seems to be the most logical approach. Funny thing is that I've seen more sensible health discussions on a Jeep forum than you can find on the popular news channels. I swear media is going to be the death of us

 

[weeitsmikelee]

Lol at the Vegan food. Jokes aside, it’s not mutually exclusive. Just because heart disease is number one doesn’t take away from this illness. But you’re right, we should be like Bob and not be gross.

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