How will JL debut affect JK resale?

How will the JL debut affect JK resale?


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Kevin

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I'm a pretty new JKU owner (1 year) so forgive the newbie question but wondering if y'all think the JK resale values will take a big dive after the JL goes on sale?

I know the TJ's held up pretty well after the JK launch but there's so many more JK/JKU's out there I'm afraid there's about to be a glut of second hand ones very soon with the big upgrades to engine and transmissions.

Will certain trims get it worse?

Please vote if you have an opinion (public poll)...
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BillyHW

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Hard to say, and I'm not an expert on the topic, but I think there will be strong demand for the 2012-2017 JK for modding and off-roading. Of course, they also sold a lot in those years, so there will be a strong supply as well. There's such a huge aftermarket for upgrades, I would expect it to be about the same across trim levels. There was a big engine upgrade in 2012, so I would expect anything 2011 or earlier to lose a lot more value when the glut of 2012+ models get traded in for JLs.

I know I wouldn't want a 2011- if I could easily get a 2012+.

I don't worry too much about resale because I plan on driving my JL into the ground with me. But the brand new price has really got me down. These things get really expensive once you start adding options. I wish I made more money. :(
 

WXman

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Well, anytime a new model comes out, the old model loses value. That's just how it is.

Having said that, Wrangler is a very unique vehicle, being the only convertible 4x4 on sale in the U.S. This will keep values up more so than other vehicles.

You have to consider that JK/JKU has been on the market 10 years already, and popularity has increased dramatically, AND they've started offering rebates and incentives on Wrangler in the last few years....all things that we never saw before. These things already caused a drop in Wrangler resale on the used market. So with the small decrease from the JL debut adding to it, anyone who bought a JK in the past year will likely find themselves "upside down" in the buy for a little while.
 

Matt The Hammer

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Part of the reason why I bought a '17. I traded in my 2013 JKUR with 125k on it and got $20k for it. I figured if I wait for the JL to come out, the value of my 13 would be in the tank. I'll deal with my 17 JK when it's time. Only advantage is that the last year of a model is usually the most bug free and with the most unique option packages (I bought a Chief Edition).
 

Vegas_Sirk

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I think they will hold well as there will always be that group of people that will say the JL is not a "real Jeep" and that its gotten "too soft" also not everyone can or will want to drop $30K+ on a new one. Also, the Wrangler is a very popular weekend vehicle so people looking for a weekend only vehicle will still consider JKs due to the cost savings over buying new. Lastly, the JLs will not have incentives on them for a while which should also help keep prices up.
 

WaltA

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The price increases for the JL, will keep the JK market stable.
 

WXman

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For a while.....

Then when JL production is in full swing they'll be making more of them than they made JKs because they've reconfigured their factories now. They will easily build every JL they can possibly sell, which will saturate the market, which will drive prices down. And when JL prices start falling, JK prices will fall even faster.

I think it'll be strong for JK for another 24-36 months, then they'll be valued at half of what they are now.
 

TLife

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Is it different enough for the general public to know there is a new model?

Sure, we (read: enthusiasts) are all, for the most part, very excited about the JL. However, we make up what percentage of wrangler buyers? 25%? The other ~75% is soccer moms and dads that couldn't tell you what engine or axles their Wrangler has now, let alone if the new one is better in some way. They'll see some minor body differences and cool fender vents, but is that going to make the difference for them when deciding to buy gently used or new? I doubt it, therefore I think JK prices remain stable.

Note: ratio of enthusiasts to soccer parents is based on number of return Jeep waves I get
 

Matt The Hammer

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Got to imagine that the 2017 sales will be more than the 2018 Jk sales. But the 2018 JL plus the JK sales for 18 will be more.
 

Dackel

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Is it different enough for the general public to know there is a new model?

Sure, we (read: enthusiasts) are all, for the most part, very excited about the JL. However, we make up what percentage of wrangler buyers? 25%? The other ~75% is soccer moms and dads that couldn't tell you what engine or axles their Wrangler has now, let alone if the new one is better in some way. They'll see some minor body differences and cool fender vents, but is that going to make the difference for them when deciding to buy gently used or new? I doubt it, therefore I think JK prices remain stable.

Note: ratio of enthusiasts to soccer parents is based on number of return Jeep waves I get
Good points! Since the exterior isn't being changed much that won't be what sways the 75% pool of soccer moms and dads. But I predict other updates will have more of an effect - like the interior and power tops.

The new interior is a more radical change, especially with the upgraded Uconnect, and what might be better quality/materials and more space. But the biggest selling point for the JL over the JK for the average customer might end up being the power soft and hard tops. Can't think of much more an attractive feature for the average soccer mom and dad than being able to go open air without having to manually remove and store panels/tops.
 

Vegas_Sirk

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I think it also depends on budget. For example someone shopping a Rubicon like mine. New they will be paying around $45K or they could buy my 4 year old one for $30-32K thats over a $10K price difference. Yes they may be able to get into a Sport for that money, but if they want the Rubicon features plus aftermarket parts a new JL Sport will not come with that. Really when buyers are shopping its a matter of what features are important to them within their budgets. Because of that pre-owned Wranglers, in general, will still have high demand.
 

four low

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A consideration in New vs Used are loan interest rates. If new vehicle loan rates are zero percent, or close to that, then the higher interest rates for older used vehicles means the $10,000 difference could actually result in a higher monthly payment than new vehicle would be. Plus, that ever- accelerating Depreciation. Plus the cachet of "New and Improved".
 

Spank

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I think it'll be strong for JK for another 24-36 months, then they'll be valued at half of what they are now.
I don't see it dropping that fast. Maybe the pre '12 JK with its awful powertrain, but the JK is still going to have massive aftermarket support and the Pentastar JK will have, dare I say, proven reliability that the JL will need a couple years to establish.
 

Vegas_Sirk

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A consideration in New vs Used are loan interest rates. If new vehicle loan rates are zero percent, or close to that, then the higher interest rates for older used vehicles means the $10,000 difference could actually result in a higher monthly payment than new vehicle would be. Plus, that ever- accelerating Depreciation. Plus the cachet of "New and Improved".
No offense but this is short sighted. At the end of the day you even if your payment on used is more you still owe $10K more. On top of that you will be paying interest on that $10k over what the next 36, 48, 60, 72 months?

Depreciation is the MOST in the first 5 years and slows down each year 4-10. Most financial sites will tell you to hold a car 10 years to maximize your investment (if you can call it that), however most people will not do that so holding it at least for the full loan term is recommended. This way you can minimize the cost of ownership.

Lastly while new cars usually have better loan rates then used the Wrangler never has 0%, 1.9, or anything of that nature as they don't need to offer it. Most of the time the % differences between new and used (always dependent on credit of course) are 1-2%.
 

The Great Grape Ape

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Lastly while new cars usually have better loan rates then used the Wrangler never has 0%, 1.9, or anything of that nature as they don't need to offer it.
Yeah, they do have 0% financing, just depends on the time of year. Not only have I seen it up here, but also on US TV from the Pacific NW and Detroit areas.

Currently 2017s are available with 0% up here.

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and..

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and..

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Since those are Canadian, here's one from Texas...

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