Demand is changing and inventory going up on dealers lots

[sgtfumblefingers]

$500 below invoice on a JL just isn't a good deal. On many cars, yes it sure is, but these can be had for at least a few thousand all day long on orders. hell I just paid 4k less than msrp for an off the lot JL.

Just got to do the research. It's a jeep, not a GT3.

And I do believe the tide is turning generally speaking for dealer inventories and orders. It was going to happen sooner or later.

the fact is prices are going down, because availability is going up. Gotta look at the big picture, not just the one dealer in your one town.

I had a friend tell me "well you have to pay to play" when he was getting butt raped on a couple new jeep and ram products. Pretty much like saying I was just being cheap. And I'm like hell no bro, there are deals out there for sure. Especially if you are willing to drive, fly, or wait on an order.

The funny part to me is the fools that were paying 5-20k over msrp for a few different types of common vehicles. like the bronco. idiots.

See how that shit works out for all of them here in a few years when they want to trade or sell.

When I went to buy my Raptor in 2018 the local dealer had one on the showroom floor with a $10,000 additional dealer markup on the window. I offered MSRP, which I never never do. The sales manager smirked and said “no” without hesitation. No counter offer… just $10,000 over MSRP or hit the road. (This is a huge Ford dealer we’ve been buying trucks from for the last two generations of my family…many trucks over the last forty years alone, but they don‘t care a wit. These days it’s about maximizing profit on every sale, not continuing a longterm relationship that will continue to produce profit for future generations.)

The dealer one town to the north also had a Raptor on the showroom floor with a huge additional dealer markup. I made the same offer, and got the same same result. Raptors were extremely popular on the west coast, and the dealers were convinced they’d find a buyer willing to overpay… but I knew it wasnt that way everywhere. After all, there isn’t much desert racing in Rhode Island or New York.

I went home, searched eBay, and found a bunch of them, including exactly what I wanted in the color I wanted. That one had every available option except the “Gee-look-at-me!” graphics, but the truck was at a Ford dealer in Maine, nearly 3,000 miles away.

Yankee Ford had a great reputation. I called them, offered MSRP, they accepted, and I wired the money. No doc fee, no flooring fee, no detail fee, and no processing fee or other imaginary BS. Just the MSRP, which was high enough. The total amount of phone contact was about 30 minutes. It was a piece of cake, and I didn‘t have to suffer through all the irritating games and justifications from a string of 28 year old sales “managers” trying to give me their version of an economics lesson. Sheesh.

I intended to ship the Raptor to Oregon, and I contracted for that, but after five or six weeks the trucking company hadn't found a truck loading in Maine, so I canceled the shipping and my wife and I flew out to get it. We turned it imto an adventure, and it was a great one. We flew first class, stayed at a great hotel in Portland, Maine, and had a fantastic steak and lobster dinner on thw wharf. And they we hopped across the country on the cheap eating at Subway (Mostly). It was fun, and we still spent much less than we would have if we’d purchased in Oregon.

I had a similar experience when I went to buy a motorcycle that was in short supply.

The truth is cars, jeeps, trucks, and motorcycles are no different from lawn mowers. They make new ones every day. We don't have to be held hostage to buy them. Just take a look around the country. You’ll find plenty as the economic pinch increases.
[/QUOTE]


Cool, I did the same thing with my last truck, which was a raptor. Bought it halfway across the country.

I go where the deal is, same as you. Because it's smart. Driving is no big deal. Sounds like you made it a nice trip!

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[slavetothetrafficlight]

My local dealer has consistently had a lot full of JLUs for the last 10 months or so since I started looking. Their website showed 61 the last time I looked a few days ago. They don't move tho bc the prices are higher than any other dealer around.

Initially I was looking for a base model sport and they had 3 2022 models that sat on the lot from mid summer until they all disappeared in late November. This summer they were all priced at $45k with a $10k dealer markup. Even in early November when I last inquired about them they still weren't willing to budge on the price. I was trying to avoid ordering bc I have a trade in but for the price difference I'm going to have to order from a high volume dealer after getting some quotes. Still waiting a few more months to watch the pricing.

 

[6.2Blazer]

In regards to the comment about dating the rate and marrying the cost (in regards to homes) I do understand that to a certain extent. Sure, you can always refinance down the road but there are two issues to consider.
1. You are making the assumption that rates will go down within a reasonable time, and they drop enough to make it worthwhile (see #2 below).
2. refinancing is not "free" as you pay closing costs, with the average being 2%-3% of the loan value....that means refinancing $200,000 will cost around $4,000-$6,000. You just have to do some basic math to determine how long it will take to recoup the closing costs with the lower monthly payment. Let's say you pay $6k in closing costs and lower your monthly payment by $100. That means it will be 5 years before you break even and actually start "saving" $100 month. That also doesn't include what you could have done with the $6k like invest in the stock market. That also means you just can't continually refinance if the rates drop even lower....so say you refinance and then 5 years later you refinance again for a lower rate. Well, you are back in the same boat and now it will be 10 years before you truly start "saving" money. Not saying refinance is a bad thing and can really save you money over the long run, just that you have to look at some basic figures and payback time to determine if it's worth it.
We refinanced a few years ago when the rates were super low, but instead of going just for the lower monthly payment we kept the same monthly payment but reduced the loan time by 6-7 years

 

[Whaler27]

When I went to buy my Raptor in 2018 the local dealer had one on the showroom floor with a $10,000 additional dealer markup on the window. I offered MSRP, which I never never do. The sales manager smirked and said “no” without hesitation. No counter offer… just $10,000 over MSRP or hit the road. (This is a huge Ford dealer we’ve been buying trucks from for the last two generations of my family…many trucks over the last forty years alone, but they don‘t care a wit. These days it’s about maximizing profit on every sale, not continuing a longterm relationship that will continue to produce profit for future generations.)

The dealer one town to the north also had a Raptor on the showroom floor with a huge additional dealer markup. I made the same offer, and got the same same result. Raptors were extremely popular on the west coast, and the dealers were convinced they’d find a buyer willing to overpay… but I knew it wasnt that way everywhere. After all, there isn’t much desert racing in Rhode Island or New York.

I went home, searched eBay, and found a bunch of them, including exactly what I wanted in the color I wanted. That one had every available option except the “Gee-look-at-me!” graphics, but the truck was at a Ford dealer in Maine, nearly 3,000 miles away.

Yankee Ford had a great reputation. I called them, offered MSRP, they accepted, and I wired the money. No doc fee, no flooring fee, no detail fee, and no processing fee or other imaginary BS. Just the MSRP, which was high enough. The total amount of phone contact was about 30 minutes. It was a piece of cake, and I didn‘t have to suffer through all the irritating games and justifications from a string of 28 year old sales “managers” trying to give me their version of an economics lesson. Sheesh.

I intended to ship the Raptor to Oregon, and I contracted for that, but after five or six weeks the trucking company hadn't found a truck loading in Maine, so I canceled the shipping and my wife and I flew out to get it. We turned it imto an adventure, and it was a great one. We flew first class, stayed at a great hotel in Portland, Maine, and had a fantastic steak and lobster dinner on thw wharf. And they we hopped across the country on the cheap eating at Subway (Mostly). It was fun, and we still spent much less than we would have if we’d purchased in Oregon.

I had a similar experience when I went to buy a motorcycle that was in short supply.

The truth is cars, jeeps, trucks, and motorcycles are no different from lawn mowers. They make new ones every day. We don't have to be held hostage to buy them. Just take a look around the country. You’ll find plenty as the economic pinch increases.

Cool, I did the same thing with my last truck, which was a raptor. Bought it halfway across the country.

I go where the deal is, same as you. Because it's smart. Driving is no big deal. Sounds like you made it a nice trip!
[/QUOTE]
Yep! And then, when I came in for service at the home dealership, one of the sales "managers" recognized me and said, "Why didn't you buy from us?!" I told him that I tried -- offered MSRP about two minutes into our conversation - but he insisted on grossing me and feeding me a load of bullsh@t. He said he didn't think I was serious... idiot. I've known the owner of the dealership and two of the FI managers for decades, and I've told this story to everybody with ears. (Amazing how a wet-behind-the-ears kids assume they're going to be able to snow a guy who has been in the word buying and selling things since twenty years before they were born. Nothing like youthful arrogance and ignorance.)

By the way, the bolded section above is actually my quote, but the section above that is not. I'm not sure how I screwed it up, but I can't fix it. I wish flying internet sites was as easy for old goats as buying vehicles.

 

[Whaler27]

I'm not sure what's happening, but hitting "reply" used to properly quote the post I'm responding to. When I do that now I get the above error, so I'm bolding the section I actually write to distinguish from the section I'm responding to.

 

[CT_LFC]

In regards to the comment about dating the rate and marrying the cost (in regards to homes) I do understand that to a certain extent. Sure, you can always refinance down the road but there are two issues to consider.
1. You are making the assumption that rates will go down within a reasonable time, and they drop enough to make it worthwhile (see #2 below).
2. refinancing is not "free" as you pay closing costs, with the average being 2%-3% of the loan value....that means refinancing $200,000 will cost around $4,000-$6,000. You just have to do some basic math to determine how long it will take to recoup the closing costs with the lower monthly payment. Let's say you pay $6k in closing costs and lower your monthly payment by $100. That means it will be 5 years before you break even and actually start "saving" $100 month. That also doesn't include what you could have done with the $6k like invest in the stock market. That also means you just can't continually refinance if the rates drop even lower....so say you refinance and then 5 years later you refinance again for a lower rate. Well, you are back in the same boat and now it will be 10 years before you truly start "saving" money. Not saying refinance is a bad thing and can really save you money over the long run, just that you have to look at some basic figures and payback time to determine if it's worth it.
We refinanced a few years ago when the rates were super low, but instead of going just for the lower monthly payment we kept the same monthly payment but reduced the loan time by 6-7 years

People need to shop around when refinancing, no different than with any other loan. If someone's really going to charge you $4-6K to refinance a $200K loan, they better take you out to a nice steak dinner before taking advantage of you.

We refinanced early 2021 and the total closing costs were under around $2K (~270K loan) through Better Mortgage (great experience with them) and in total we were better off by a few hundred because with our previous mortgage we had to escrow and keep 2 months worth always in the bank. In the new mortgage i chose not to escrow which means i got that money back which covered the closing costs and left money remaining.

 

[6.2Blazer]

People need to shop around when refinancing, no different than with any other loan. If someone's really going to charge you $4-6K to refinance a $200K loan, they better take you out to a nice steak dinner before taking advantage of you.

We refinanced early 2021 and the total closing costs were under around $2K (~270K loan) through Better Mortgage (great experience with them) and in total we were better off by a few hundred because with our previous mortgage we had to escrow and keep 2 months worth always in the bank. In the new mortgage i chose not to escrow which means i got that money back which covered the closing costs and left money remaining.

I completely agree that you need to shop around and look for special offers. The closing costs I stated are simply based on what different sources, such as the Federal Reserve, state are average in the U.S. It does vary wildly based on the location of the home.....New York is typically a lot more expensive than rural Midwest locations. Basically just the point that people do need to shop around and take all factors into consideration....you just can't blindly justify getting a high mortgage rate today by saying you will refinance in the future without thinking about it a little. There is no guarantee how low rates will go, or how long it may be before rates drop enough to justify it, and of course the cost of refinancing.
Just to clarify, refinancing does have the potential to save a person a large amount in the long run and I highly recommend that people keep an eye out on current rates. In my case I'll actually be paying an extra $100 per month for the next 15 years after refinancing.....but the house will be paid off 7 years earlier, so that means I will be paying zero mortgage payments for 7 years as compared to the original mortgage which is worth WAY more money than the extra $100 month today.

 

[five9dak]

A good broker in PA can get you a refi for the cost of the title search and appraisal basically. At least, he did twice for me in the past.

 

[Rustynail11]

was at the dealer this morning this morning and they had about 40 rigs on the lot. Combo of JL, JLU, and JT of varying trim levels. I didn't look at any of the window stickers so not sure what pricing looked like.

 

[entropy]

People overhired and overstocked their inventory given the insanity of last year. So we are seeing layoffs, specially on the tech sector. This will lower the cost of human resources.

The overstock inventory will result in price drop of stuff.

Looks like things are gonna balance out. Sucks for the people losing their jobs but what are you gonna do.

 

[multicam]

Just picked up my rubicon XR for 4% under invoice sitting on the lot. They had 7 or so wranglers in stock.

$500 below invoice on a JL just isn't a good deal. On many cars, yes it sure is, but these can be had for at least a few thousand all day long on orders. hell I just paid 4k less than msrp for an off the lot JL.

Just curious because there’s a big difference, did you pay 4% under invoice or MSRP? Also 4% under invoice off the lot is pretty good.

 

[sgtfumblefingers]

Just curious because there’s a big difference, did you pay 4% under invoice or MSRP? Also 4% under invoice off the lot is pretty good.

sticker was $60, 595

I paid $56,457

Didn't bother to look up the official invoice, my math may be a little off.

so about 6.8% under msrp

 

[sgtfumblefingers]

In regards to the comment about dating the rate and marrying the cost (in regards to homes) I do understand that to a certain extent. Sure, you can always refinance down the road but there are two issues to consider.
1. You are making the assumption that rates will go down within a reasonable time, and they drop enough to make it worthwhile (see #2 below).
2. refinancing is not "free" as you pay closing costs, with the average being 2%-3% of the loan value....that means refinancing $200,000 will cost around $4,000-$6,000. You just have to do some basic math to determine how long it will take to recoup the closing costs with the lower monthly payment. Let's say you pay $6k in closing costs and lower your monthly payment by $100. That means it will be 5 years before you break even and actually start "saving" $100 month. That also doesn't include what you could have done with the $6k like invest in the stock market. That also means you just can't continually refinance if the rates drop even lower....so say you refinance and then 5 years later you refinance again for a lower rate. Well, you are back in the same boat and now it will be 10 years before you truly start "saving" money. Not saying refinance is a bad thing and can really save you money over the long run, just that you have to look at some basic figures and payback time to determine if it's worth it.
We refinanced a few years ago when the rates were super low, but instead of going just for the lower monthly payment we kept the same monthly payment but reduced the loan time by 6-7 years

Got a friend that just sold his house. Took all the equity and paid off a few bills, then bought a house twice as much as the one he sold. All while starting a completely new mortgage.

I don't think he really understands what he did from a financial standpoint.

 

[wanderer]

Yeah I noticed the same thing I was shopping around for a new jlur I have a gladiator don’t need the truck mid the open air. Went to trade the 2020 jtur in and was offered barely what I owe 33. Now this is a loaded jtur with tons of great after market stuff. I noticed on this lot and several other lots numerous jlur 4xe and jts. Maybe that explains why the low trade in offer on the other hand looked at a couple of bronco those a——-le ford dealers. Are adding 15 to 25 k to sticker what a crock of I even saw a bronco raptor for 154,000.00 unbelievable

 

[aldo98229]

Two weeks ago Vroom offered $24,000 for my 2018 JLU with 15,000 miles. At the height of the market a year ago, it offered $47,250. That’s a drop in their offer of 50%!

About the same time, two weeks ago, a Mini dealer in Seattle (long story) offered $33,000 for my JLU in trade. They found 250 used JLs for sale within a 60-mile radius...! That’s a bit of a glut if you ask me. Likely due to dealers having been overpaying for used Wranglers, and the market cooling down due to rising interest rates.

By comparison, a year ago Vroom offered $27,000 for my 2018 Fiat 124 Spider Abarth; two weeks ago it offered $22,000. That’s a drop in their offer of “only” 22%, and more in-line with the overall decline in the market. There were as few used Spiders for sale on the market a year ago as there are now.

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