Demand is changing and inventory going up on dealers lots

[stojanowski]

Housing market is starting to soften up, as well.

We sold our house at the end of September - listed it for ~$20K more than it was worth (IMO) and sold it in a week for asking.

Been living with my parents while we house-hunt in a new area. We've had a search up since ~August and have seen prices steadily (but slowly) decreasing. More price drops, more houses sitting for 30+ days (and not junkers/fixer-uppers only).

Interest rates suck but it's easy enough to refinance (plus living mostly rent-free with my parents for a few months doesn't exactly hurt the savings account. The pride, a little, but not the bank)

I don't know we were looking at possibly relocating for jobs but interest rates on housing eats away at a lot of any potential pay increases.

We are at 2.25 on the rate, looks like 5.25 is low for now, which would be a $460 increase of interest alone. Who knows how long these rates are stating for.

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[CT_LFC]

I don't know we were looking at possibly relocating for jobs but interest rates on housing eats away at a lot of any potential pay increases.

We are at 2.25 on the rate, looks like 5.25 is low for now, which would be a $460 increase of interest alone. Who knows how long these rates are stating for.

You date the rate but you marry the price.

As long as you get a good price, you can always refinance down the road but you can never change the purchase price.

We are relocating next year and we'll go from 2.6% to probably more than double that, but if we were going to wait for rates to go back down to <3% to make the move, we wouldn't be able to do it for years...maybe ever.

Prices have gone down considerably (national average) since summer peak, though some of that is due to seasonality, so we're hoping the downward trend continues next year.

 

[58Willys]

A year ago this past October, my wife’s Subaru got totalled. She bought a RAV4 and waited 4 months for it. The Toyota dealer lot was devoid of any vehicles. I drove past the Toyota lot earlier this week, probably 75 new cars sitting on the lot. Yup things are changing.

 

[Whaler27]

After seeing the change in sales and inventory building up, have to wonder what prices might look like when it gets here.

This is the beginning of what many of us predicted 12 to 18 months go, not because we’re geniuses, but because it’s the cycle we’ve seen many, many times before. Most of the old folks saw it coming and warned the young folks who believed they‘d be able to keep buying new jeeps and, a year later, selling them for more than they paid. Gas prices and inflation are tightening a lot of belts just as interest rates are climbing to levels that make folks who buy cars on credit uncomfortable. I know lots of us don’t finance vehicles, but many others do, and when they buy less frequently the sales slow and inventory builds. We’ll be seeing aggressive manufacturer-subsidized financing and, I suspect, rebates within another 18 to 24 months.

 

[bradcrc]

It wasn't that long ago you couldn't find a Wrangler on a lot now they have several to pick from

It wasn't that long ago that you couldn't find much of anything on a lot, around here the lots were literally bare.

I just bought my JL a couple weeks ago (for a good price) and the dealer lot was so full of car inventory, I had to back out and park in the street, not even room to turn around.

Glad the situation changed so fast.

 

[bradcrc]

We sold our house at the end of September ... for ~$20K more than it was worth

...We've had a search up since ~August and have seen prices steadily (but slowly) decreasing. More price drops,

Sell high and buy low? Someone is doing it right.

 

[rcadden]

Sell high and buy low? Someone is doing it right.

AND moving from a high COL area to a lower one. We really lucked out, too, being able to live with my parents in the mean time. Saving a ton of $$

 

[bem1]

I sure hope this continues... we are in the market for a newer JK and used prices are still pretty high. Have been fighting with multiple dealerships on their high/crazy prices for these used JKs....so ridiculous!

 

[6.2Blazer]

Inventory has greatly changed recently. Just as said above the local Jeep dealership had very few JL 4 doors on the lot as of this summer. Talked with one of the salesman and he basically said they would get a few in during the week but were always sold by the weekend. Drove by the other day and noticed several rows of JL 4 doors sitting around, and after reading this post pulled up their website that listed 48 JL 4 doors on the lot!

 

[LARSONEM]

2 weeks ago I was at the dealer working on ordering a punkin xr rubicon.

There was a blue xr that just came in and an 392 fresh off the truck. Supposedly, it was ordered and buyer was picking it.

Fast forwarded to today and in the same dealer for service work on my JT.

That same blue rubicon was still on the lot. Now joined by a rain rubicon and a few others. The 392 was sitting on the showroom floor- unsold and no dealer mark up.

I ordered my rubicon that came out to 69...k for 61k and felt like that was a great deal. It will take 4 months and got it the way I wanted it.

After seeing the change in sales and inventory building up, have to wonder what prices might look like when it gets here.

[/QUOTE]
Don’t hold your breath on prices going down. I’d say there’d have to be a massive inventory buildup on dealer lots for that to happen. I ordered a 2022 Rubicon XR mid January 2022; a fairly loaded vehicle that I negotiated an invoice price on. Window sticker was $60,025. Four days after I ordered I got a Price Order Confirmation for $62,355. Called the dealer and was told I’d still get it at invoice. But what was invoice really going to be? I’d never done business with that dealer and my trust of car dealerships is pretty thin. When the Jeep came in mid April 2022, first thing I asked was to see the invoice. It was about $175 above what I’d originally been quoted. It had a fuel charge on it along with something the sales guy said was related to dealer prep. Hardly grounds to sink the deal. There was also a line on the invoice saying Price Protection Guarantee which extended the original price to me being as how it was a “sold” vehicle which had priority in the dealer allocation. Bottom line is they allowed me to use a Chrysler Friends and Family discount through a friend of mine to put the price $500 below invoice. Not a bad deal. Chrysler had a second price hike in June or July and another price hike to start the 2023 model year. The price to duplicate my Rubi XR as a 2023 is over $5,000 more than the window sticker was on my Jeep.

 

[sgtfumblefingers]

Don’t hold your breath on prices going down. I’d say there’d have to be a massive inventory buildup on dealer lots for that to happen. I ordered a 2022 Rubicon XR mid January 2022; a fairly loaded vehicle that I negotiated an invoice price on. Window sticker was $60,025. Four days after I ordered I got a Price Order Confirmation for $62,355. Called the dealer and was told I’d still get it at invoice. But what was invoice really going to be? I’d never done business with that dealer and my trust of car dealerships is pretty thin. When the Jeep came in mid April 2022, first thing I asked was to see the invoice. It was about $175 above what I’d originally been quoted. It had a fuel charge on it along with something the sales guy said was related to dealer prep. Hardly grounds to sink the deal. There was also a line on the invoice saying Price Protection Guarantee which extended the original price to me being as how it was a “sold” vehicle which had priority in the dealer allocation. Bottom line is they allowed me to use a Chrysler Friends and Family discount through a friend of mine to put the price $500 below invoice. Not a bad deal. Chrysler had a second price hike in June or July and another price hike to start the 2023 model year. The price to duplicate my Rubi XR as a 2023 is over $5,000 more than the window sticker was on my Jeep.
[/QUOTE]

$500 below invoice on a JL just isn't a good deal. On many cars, yes it sure is, but these can be had for at least a few thousand all day long on orders. hell I just paid 4k less than msrp for an off the lot JL.

Just got to do the research. It's a jeep, not a GT3.

And I do believe the tide is turning generally speaking for dealer inventories and orders. It was going to happen sooner or later.

the fact is prices are going down, because availability is going up. Gotta look at the big picture, not just the one dealer in your one town.

I had a friend tell me "well you have to pay to play" when he was getting butt raped on a couple new jeep and ram products. Pretty much like saying I was just being cheap. And I'm like hell no bro, there are deals out there for sure. Especially if you are willing to drive, fly, or wait on an order.

The funny part to me is the fools that were paying 5-20k over msrp for a few different types of common vehicles. like the bronco. idiots.

See how that shit works out for all of them here in a few years when they want to trade or sell.

 

[Timmyjoe]

Wow, we must be an outlier because our local Jeep dealer still has nothing. Over the last six months, if they had two new JL's on the lot at one time it was amazing. They haven't had a new JL on the lot in weeks. About a half dozen used JL's and JK's but that's it.

Best,
-Tim

 

[MesaAZGuy]

The selling dealer of mine has plenty of Jeeps on their lot.... JT's mostly with a few Wranglers. I believe if you see a ton of inventory that means the dealer is either a huge volume seller or is overpriced.

 

[ViperJon]

This is going to be a good time going forward next few years to remember who the pig heavy mark-up ADM dealers were. And pass them by when they are crying about sitting with their loaded inventory. Give your business to the good guys.

 

[Whaler27]

Don’t hold your breath on prices going down. I’d say there’d have to be a massive inventory buildup on dealer lots for that to happen. I ordered a 2022 Rubicon XR mid January 2022; a fairly loaded vehicle that I negotiated an invoice price on. Window sticker was $60,025. Four days after I ordered I got a Price Order Confirmation for $62,355. Called the dealer and was told I’d still get it at invoice. But what was invoice really going to be? I’d never done business with that dealer and my trust of car dealerships is pretty thin. When the Jeep came in mid April 2022, first thing I asked was to see the invoice. It was about $175 above what I’d originally been quoted. It had a fuel charge on it along with something the sales guy said was related to dealer prep. Hardly grounds to sink the deal. There was also a line on the invoice saying Price Protection Guarantee which extended the original price to me being as how it was a “sold” vehicle which had priority in the dealer allocation. Bottom line is they allowed me to use a Chrysler Friends and Family discount through a friend of mine to put the price $500 below invoice. Not a bad deal. Chrysler had a second price hike in June or July and another price hike to start the 2023 model year. The price to duplicate my Rubi XR as a 2023 is over $5,000 more than the window sticker was on my Jeep.

$500 below invoice on a JL just isn't a good deal. On many cars, yes it sure is, but these can be had for at least a few thousand all day long on orders. hell I just paid 4k less than msrp for an off the lot JL.

Just got to do the research. It's a jeep, not a GT3.

And I do believe the tide is turning generally speaking for dealer inventories and orders. It was going to happen sooner or later.

the fact is prices are going down, because availability is going up. Gotta look at the big picture, not just the one dealer in your one town.

I had a friend tell me "well you have to pay to play" when he was getting butt raped on a couple new jeep and ram products. Pretty much like saying I was just being cheap. And I'm like hell no bro, there are deals out there for sure. Especially if you are willing to drive, fly, or wait on an order.

The funny part to me is the fools that were paying 5-20k over msrp for a few different types of common vehicles. like the bronco. idiots.

See how that shit works out for all of them here in a few years when they want to trade or sell.
[/QUOTE]

When I went to buy my Raptor in 2018 the local dealer had one on the showroom floor with a $10,000 additional dealer markup on the window. I offered MSRP, which I never never do. The sales manager smirked and said “no” without hesitation. No counter offer… just $10,000 over MSRP or hit the road. (This is a huge Ford dealer we’ve been buying trucks from for the last two generations of my family…many trucks over the last forty years alone, but they don‘t care a wit. These days it’s about maximizing profit on every sale, not continuing a longterm relationship that will continue to produce profit for future generations.)

The dealer one town to the north also had a Raptor on the showroom floor with a huge additional dealer markup. I made the same offer, and got the same same result. Raptors were extremely popular on the west coast, and the dealers were convinced they’d find a buyer willing to overpay… but I knew it wasnt that way everywhere. After all, there isn’t much desert racing in Rhode Island or New York.

I went home, searched eBay, and found a bunch of them, including exactly what I wanted in the color I wanted. That one had every available option except the “Gee-look-at-me!” graphics, but the truck was at a Ford dealer in Maine, nearly 3,000 miles away.

Yankee Ford had a great reputation. I called them, offered MSRP, they accepted, and I wired the money. No doc fee, no flooring fee, no detail fee, and no processing fee or other imaginary BS. Just the MSRP, which was high enough. The total amount of phone contact was about 30 minutes. It was a piece of cake, and I didn‘t have to suffer through all the irritating games and justifications from a string of 28 year old sales “managers” trying to give me their version of an economics lesson. Sheesh.

I intended to ship the Raptor to Oregon, and I contracted for that, but after five or six weeks the trucking company hadn't found a truck loading in Maine, so I canceled the shipping and my wife and I flew out to get it. We turned it imto an adventure, and it was a great one. We flew first class, stayed at a great hotel in Portland, Maine, and had a fantastic steak and lobster dinner on thw wharf. And they we hopped across the country on the cheap eating at Subway (Mostly). It was fun, and we still spent much less than we would have if we’d purchased in Oregon.

I had a similar experience when I went to buy a motorcycle that was in short supply.

The truth is cars, jeeps, trucks, and motorcycles are no different from lawn mowers. They make new ones every day. We don't have to be held hostage to buy them. Just take a look around the country. You’ll find plenty as the economic pinch increases.

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