Crowdsourcing to figure out what months our VINs were created

[CMSJeep]

Thanks, I've updated the spreadsheet.

124822 ordered 11/29. Not 11/30, but closer than your table currently reflects for November end.

Is the data accessible? The nuggets of inference are great, but I'm a fan of slicing and dicing data myself.

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[Ratbert]

124822 ordered 11/29. Not 11/30, but closer than your table currently reflects for November end.

Is the data accessible? The nuggets of inference are great, but I'm a fan of slicing and dicing data myself.

Thanks. Updated the table with yours.

I could put the database in the cloud, but then I'd have to pay for that. The time to update it would also increase dramatically unless I also moved the extraction piece to the cloud.

 

[JohnSarge]

I could put the database in the cloud, but then I'd have to pay for that. The time to update it would also increase dramatically unless I also moved the extraction piece to the cloud.

Is it possible for you to put a viewable spreadsheet on google or something for others to look at a data slice? Not saying to keep it updated but a snapshot of your data would be cool info to see.

 

[Jmos4]

Hi,

Ordered 11-29-21, 124933, delivered 3-8-22

Hope this helps your efforts

Regards,
Jim

 

[JL Diesel]

Does the order date on the POC line up with what you're thinking?

The holidays could definitely impact things. I'll find out this weekend, but I'm thinking that build sheets only get generated on business days.

Never got the POC. Just a copy of the order form from day I ordered at the dealer.

 

[Ratbert]

Is it possible for you to put a viewable spreadsheet on google or something for others to look at a data slice? Not saying to keep it updated but a snapshot of your data would be cool info to see.

Yeah, but there's thousands of ways to slice the data.

There's over 11k different "pieces of equipment" on build sheets. Each of the 73k build sheets has an average of 232 of those "pieces of equipment." Along with over 57k of window stickers.

That doesn't fit will into a spreadsheet unless it's for a very specific form of analysis.

 

[Ratbert]

Hi,

Ordered 11-29-21, 124933, delivered 3-8-22

Hope this helps your efforts

Regards,
Jim

Perfect. Slightly better than what we had!

 

[Ratbert]

Here are the statistics with the addition of this morning's extraction of build sheets. This is using the sequence number ranges that have been provided here.

Month	Build Sheets	% Overall	% of Month
Oct	10,973	14.6	88.5
Nov	10,457	13.9	79.8
Dec	25,699	34.2	79.1
Jan	19,214	25.6	62.4
Feb	5,605	7.5	24.0
Mar	78	0.1	0.0

Note that my analysis of 200k of sequence numbers in the middle of 2020 showed that 14.7% of those sequence numbers never got build sheets.

 

[Stumeat]

188563 Ordered 01/31/22, built Feb 28th (ish), awaiting a train.

 

[wdog]

235842 ordered on 03/31/2022 at 12:30PM EST.

Settling in for a wait I'm sure!

 

[Ratbert]

235842 ordered on 03/31/2022 at 12:30PM EST.

Settling in for a wait I'm sure!

I just realized this morning that we don't know when March's sequence numbers ended. Thanks!

 

[TriumphJeepster]

I just realized this morning that we don't know when March's sequence numbers ended. Thanks!

Ratbert, taking a shot in the dark, would you say anything ordered mid March is likely to be built for call it... 30% odds in June based on what you have seen since you started?

 

[Ratbert]

Ratbert, taking a shot in the dark, would you say anything ordered mid March is likely to be built for call it... 30% odds in June based on what you have seen since you started?

I'm not sure that I fully understand what you're asking, but I don't even know if my Dec 9th order will be built by June.

 

[TriumphJeepster]

I'm not sure that I fully understand what you're asking, but I don't even know if my Dec 9th order will be built by June.

I realized as I typed it on my smart phone it made little sense.

It seems like, a good chunk of orders take a few months to get a build sheet. If I am reading this all right, after 3 months there is likely better than a coin flip odds that an order has an associated build sheet. Of course your data isn't taking all the builds into account, but that seems reasonable. Past the 3 months.. more get build sheets but at a slower rate until all are fullfilled. Seems like it's a big rush to fill call it 75% of a given months orders, about 3 months in.

Essentially, if you don't get a build sheet 3 months in, the odds are lessening each week to get one.

Does that make sense? I went to public school so forgive the stupidity.

 

[Ratbert]

I realized as I typed it on my smart phone it made little sense.

It seems like, a good chunk of orders take a few months to get a build sheet. If I am reading this all right, after 3 months there is likely better than a coin flip odds that an order has an associated build sheet. Of course your data isn't taking all the builds into account, but that seems reasonable. Past the 3 months.. more get build sheets but at a slower rate until all are fullfilled. Seems like it's a big rush to fill call it 75% of a given months orders, about 3 months in.

Essentially, if you don't get a build sheet 3 months in, the odds are lessening each week to get one.

Does that make sense? I went to public school so forgive the stupidity.

It's extremely challenging to make sense of it. I'm beginning to think that simply breaking it up into chunks of 10k sequence numbers might make it easier to grasp, but people tend to mentally / logically group builds together by month.

Here's by 10k sequence numbers:

sequence number range	% w/build sheets	% w/window stickers
100000-109999	44.9​	40.9​
110000-119999	86.6​	82.3​
120000-129999	82.0​	76.2​
130000-139999	89.0​	64.9​
140000-149999	86.0​	47.4​
150000-159999	73.5​	59.0​
160000-169999	71.4​	60.5​
170000-179999	71.1​	49.1​
180000-189999	64.1​	50.7​
190000-199999	48.6​	35.7​
200000-209999	31.3​	27.4​
210000-219999	16.7​	13.2​
220000-229999	1.7​	1.3​

Note that we don't really know what "all build sheets" is since in my 2020 analysis 14.7% never received build sheets. Some of these groups are already over that.

The % with window stickers column is a little unexpected and I don't know what's up with the first row (the first part of October's orders).

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