Corona Gorilla in the room...

2020 Diesel JL

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While amusing, currency implies a common understanding of value. TP ranges from $0-10/roll depending on the individual deciding what it’s worth to them, so the exchange rate is nearly infinite. As a commodity to barter, I suppose it could be useful in some exchanges.
Just watch the news, It's like a wild west movie what some are willing to do for TP. I was at the local Walmart yesterday and there was not a roll anywhere. Even the bathrooms were stripped of TP. Craziest thing I've ever seen. I should have bought Proctor & Gamble stock. How would have thunk.
 

DanW

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I have no dog in the hoax that is blue team vs red team politics, but let’s not lose sight of the reality of his comments.

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/trump-coronavirus-rally-remark/

If they wanted to get ahead of the problem, the answer was not rapid availability of testing kits...it was preemptive development of a vaccine. This virus will be spreading far and wide regardless of who is confirmed and when. The large majority of cases will never be tested and will be out in the community with mild symptoms spreading virus unknowingly. Outside of a massive quarantine delaying the spread, the feds will not be having a significant affect on spread based on their initial response.
We'll have a vaccine by September. FDA is waiving many rules for testing. CDC is ramping this up. That's the best we can do, folks. I've heard lots of criticism but nobody presented a viable alternative that would have really done better. Remember, many who are now saying we could have done more were crying about clamping down on travel from China. Amazing.

I find it fascinating how vocal the open border crowd is about how we could have done so much more. The irony there is of historic proportions.

The fact is, a vaccine is going to be the way to combat this. Testing is good, but it just gives a slightly less blurry picture of the landscape, but it is still blurry. It is valuable, but not an end-all.

Btw, does anyone remember the government getting ripped like this back when we lost 15k people in the last pandemic? I don't. So, yeah, the politics are there now in a big way.
 

DanW

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Btw, I'm not too worried about TP after seeing this....

 

TPadden

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I disagree with the latter half of your summary unless you’re referencing our and the entire world’s lack of interest in preventive measures before it emerged as a serious issue.kill far more people than the virus ever will.
As usual world governmental over reaction is bass akward. The only quarantine required is for the at risk population; too late for anything else. Quarantine, protect, treat them and the rest of us will sniffle, cough, and until any vaccine is developed - simply move on.
 

JLURD

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We'll have a vaccine by September. FDA is waiving many rules for testing. CDC is ramping this up. That's the best we can do, folks. I've heard lots of criticism but nobody presented a viable alternative that would have really done better. Remember, many who are now saying we could have done more were crying about clamping down on travel from China. Amazing.

I find it fascinating how vocal the open border crowd is about how we could have done so much more. The irony there is of historic proportions.

The fact is, a vaccine is going to be the way to combat this. Testing is good, but it just gives a slightly less blurry picture of the landscape, but it is still blurry. It is valuable, but not an end-all.

Btw, does anyone remember the government getting ripped like this back when we lost 15k people in the last pandemic? I don't. So, yeah, the politics are there now in a big way.
Friendly $20 wager on September? Osterholm and I both think that’s not going to happen. It is about the only way to slow it down at this point though.
 

DanW

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Friendly $20 wager on September? Osterholm and I both think that’s not going to happen. It is about the only way to slow it down at this point though.
Friendly $20 wager on September? Osterholm and I both think that’s not going to happen. It is about the only way to slow it down at this point though.
Nope. I wouldn't bet on anything with this situation right now. I was just passing on what a CDC official said to my nephew yesterday, who works with them regularly. The normal time for development, testing, and distribution of a similar vaccine would be 12 to 18 months. I do think 6 months is very possible, with relaxed regulations/requirements by the FDA.

You can bet it is a horse race, though, to develop it and get it out there. They'll do it as fast as they can. Lots of pressure on them.
 

JLURD

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Nope. I wouldn't bet on anything with this situation right now. I was just passing on what a CDC official said to my nephew yesterday, who works with them regularly. The normal time for development, testing, and distribution of a similar vaccine would be 12 to 18 months. I do think 6 months is very possible, with relaxed regulations/requirements by the FDA.

You can bet it is a horse race, though, to develop it and get it out there. They'll do it as fast as they can. Lots of pressure on them.
I guess we’ll have to bank on the government’s long history of under promising and over-delivering.:whew:
 

rickinAZ

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If we are SMART about relaxing FDA regulations, things could go faster.

A minimum of regulations enabled the Empire State Building to go from dirt-start to first occupants in just over a year. The downside was that there were many more worker deaths than current construction projects.

Or the Panama Canal. Or the Golden Gate Bridge. Or the Hoover Dam. All super-quick projects, relatively speaking, but with high body counts.

Bottom line: Regulations slow things down dramatically, but sometimes the reward outweighs the risk. That said, I have no idea whether vaccine development streamlining would have the same tail wind effect as physical construction.
 

ChimpanZed

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We'll have a vaccine by September.
There’s never been a vaccine successfully created for any kind of coronavirus. That’s not to say it’s impossible, but “We’ll have a vaccine by September” is not founded on anything real and there’s just no way we could know that with any certainty.
 

DanW

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There’s never been a vaccine successfully created for any kind of coronavirus. That’s not to say it’s impossible, but “We’ll have a vaccine by September” is not founded on anything real and there’s just no way we could know that with any certainty.
You are right that there is no certainty. The September prediction came from someone who is an expert on infectious disease and consults the CDC frequently. In fact, he developed the procedure for safely handling the body of the lone US death from Ebola. He makes decontamination equipment for bio-labs, among other related products. His educated guess is HIGHLY educated and informed.

Does he have a crystal ball? No. But he does know the company that has a prototype vaccine and is getting ready to select volunteers for testing. The reason he said September is because the FDA is expected to greatly relax regulations for testing in order to fast track it.

Take it however you want. No guarantees. I trust my source on this, though. He's the real deal, with about 40 years of experience in the business of dealing with infectious disease. He's been right many times more than he's been wrong. And with this crisis, his business has skyrocketed due to demand from labs that are studying this virus to fight it.

Wait and see. I guarantee there is a massive effort going on to get it done.
 

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You are right that there is no certainty. The September prediction came from someone who is an expert on infectious disease and consults the CDC frequently. In fact, he developed the procedure for safely handling the body of the lone US death from Ebola. He makes decontamination equipment for bio-labs, among other related products. His educated guess is HIGHLY educated and informed.

Does he have a crystal ball? No. But he does know the company that has a prototype vaccine and is getting ready to select volunteers for testing. The reason he said September is because the FDA is expected to greatly relax regulations for testing in order to fast track it.

Take it however you want. No guarantees. I trust my source on this, though. He's the real deal, with about 40 years of experience in the business of dealing with infectious disease. He's been right many times more than he's been wrong. And with this crisis, his business has skyrocketed due to demand from labs that are studying this virus to fight it.

Wait and see. I guarantee there is a massive effort going on to get it done.
To your point, the FDA allowed the first human testing already this week. It takes quite a while to translate that to a commercially available vaccine, but getting to a human trial that quickly suggests the FDA is willing to allow much higher risks given the shitshow that’s already been unleashed (by both the virus and self-inflicted economic harm which will be killing vastly more people).
 

TPadden

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To your point, ... FDA is willing to allow much higher risks given the shitshow that’s already been unleashed (by both the virus and self-inflicted economic harm which will be killing vastly more people).
Texas closed bars, restaurants, and will be taking more extreme measures following the announcement of their first Corona fatality ... a male “in his upper ninety’s”. (Austin news Monday)
 
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Goin2drt

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The media and then the sheeple that are creating this mass hysteria is the problem, NOT the government. The government never said go stock up on TP. the virus doesn't even give you the shits. This is 1000% the effect of social media on the sheeple that blindly follow others without first getting educated or even a small understanding of the issue. This applies to politics as well prior to this virus.

Supply chain isn't shutting down people. Healthy people are barely even feeling that bad from this. It isn't like if you get it, you will die. That would be call for panic.Yes we all need to follow the direction of VERY SMART people at the CDC and do what they are asking. They are not asking for people to go stockpile supplies and then try to sell them on ebay. Let's all be sensible here. Go out and support your local restaurants while following the rules of the state and tip well. These service people need us.
 

Jeepdude101

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The media and then the sheeple that are creating this mass hysteria is the problem, NOT the government. The government never said go stock up on TP. the virus doesn't even give you the shits. This is 1000% the effect of social media on the sheeple that blindly follow others without first getting educated or even a small understanding of the issue. This applies to politics as well prior to this virus.

Supply chain isn't shutting down people. Healthy people are barely even feeling that bad from this. It isn't like if you get it, you will die. That would be call for panic.Yes we all need to follow the direction of VERY SMART people at the CDC and do what they are asking. They are not asking for people to go stockpile supplies and then try to sell them on ebay. Let's all be sensible here. Go out and support your local restaurants while following the rules of the state and tip well. These service people need us.
I agree the media as of the last few years has been smoking something REALLY STRONG I just hope it blows over ASAP.
 
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