18’/19’ Model Years thoughts on Investigation?

[00Sebby]

2018 JL’s have already deprecated $11k to $13k depending on mileage. Most people are going to be in complete shock when they try to trade in on something else in 3-4 years. But this is also one of the main reasons you never buy a first year new production vehicle.

Or a new vehicle in general. Per Carfax...

"According to current depreciation rates, the value of a new vehicle can drop by more than 20 percent after the first 12 months of ownership. Then, for the next four years, you can expect your car to lose roughly 10 percent of its value annually. This means that a new car can be worth as little as 40 percent of its original purchase price after five years."

Based on that, a new 2018 $40,000 Wrangler is down $8000 after first year and another $4000 after the 2nd year. That is right in the middle of what you pointed out so if their numbers are right... pretty sure they have good data... then that kind of depreciation would be expected.

We always see on forums where people say, "I paid $40,000 for X vehicle, traded two years later and got $37000 in trade." However, we all know how the dealers work the deal sheets to inflate the value of the trade to cover upside-down conditions, etc. basically putting the inflation onto the next vehicle in a way the bank will finance it. So those anecdotal experiences don't mean a whole lot data-wise.

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[Token]

People have short memories.

When it comes time to sell.... It'll sell.

 

[Roky]

Or a new vehicle in general. Per Carfax...

"According to current depreciation rates, the value of a new vehicle can drop by more than 20 percent after the first 12 months of ownership. Then, for the next four years, you can expect your car to lose roughly 10 percent of its value annually. This means that a new car can be worth as little as 40 percent of its original purchase price after five years."

Based on that, a new 2018 $40,000 Wrangler is down $8000 after first year and another $4000 after the 2nd year. That is right in the middle of what you pointed out so if their numbers are right... pretty sure they have good data... then that kind of depreciation would be expected.

We always see on forums where people say, "I paid $40,000 for X vehicle, traded two years later and got $37000 in trade." However, we all know how the dealers work the deal sheets to inflate the value of the trade to cover upside-down conditions, etc. basically putting the inflation onto the next vehicle in a way the bank will finance it. So those anecdotal experiences don't mean a whole lot data-wise.

Well..... it’s a good thing I didn’t buy my rig for an investment then.......... If someone did they should fire their broker.....

 

[Chemy350]

Been selling cars for nearly 20 years. This will fly over.... a small percentage of people may complain and not want to buy a 18 or 19 down the road, but the vast majority wont even be aware of any previous issues.

 

[four low]

People " Buy with their eyes ", unless something entirely unforeseen happens, Wranglers will remain an Icon, and the Dream Machine for Walter Mittys everywhere...

 

[roaniecowpony]

Life's short, accept the path life has bump steered you onto, or steer the damn thing yourself.

 

[four low]

That brings up the point that Wranglers are "driver vehicles", they require input and attention from the person behind the wheel. Road noise, wind, steering feedback are part of a "driving" experience. Most people want a hermetically sealed, car-like vehicle, with all the Comforts of a living room, without the bother of actually doing anything... so hopefully the Wrangler won't be the victim of its success, destroyed by the fickle "Mass Market" it courted.

 

[TrailTorque]

Life's short, accept the path life has bump steered you onto, or steer the damn thing yourself.

lololol

 

[TrailTorque]

That brings up the point that Wranglers are "driver vehicles", they require input and attention from the person behind the wheel. Road noise, wind, steering feedback are part of a "driving" experience. Most people want a hermetically sealed, car-like vehicle, with all the Comforts of a living room, without the bother of actually doing anything... so hopefully the Wrangler won't be the victim of its success, destroyed by the fickle "Mass Market" it courted.

I don't think the steering part of the investigation is the cause for any concern, I believe its the frame "issues" that people are more focused on for whatever reasons. Not sure how slag/splash has anything to do with frame integrity but ok.... LOL

 

[roaniecowpony]

Decades ago, my former career was in manufacturing, from a machinist to manufacturing engineer. Spatter, splash, etc., are vague terms when it comes to welding. The process used to production weld our frames is likely MIG welding. You can find a description of it here. http://www.kingsofwelding.com/guides/mig-welding-guide/

MIG welding is used because it's fast and can be taught to new welder at a basic level very quickly. However, learning to do MIG welds that have high integrity, consistently, takes experience and education.

When I looked at the welds on my Jeep, it appears they are done by low skilled laborers. Most automakers today use robots to weld high production, complex components. Robot welds are going to be very consistent. The crooked, irregular weld beads are a clue that they are welded by hand by low skilled welders. Spatter is a common by-product of MIG welding. It is not necessarily an indication that the weld is substandard. When you see a weld bead that looks straight and consistent, it is more likely to be a good, strong weld.

Google images for "bad weld" and "good weld" . That will tell you more than I can in words.

https://www.google.com/search?q=bad...-aXlAhURmeAKHfbpAcwQ_AUIEigB&biw=1920&bih=888

https://www.google.com/search?q=goo...Hc&ei=U8KpXeebGp3iswXxi6fADg&bih=888&biw=1920

 

[TrailTorque]

Decades ago, my former career was in manufacturing, from a machinist to manufacturing engineer. Spatter, splash, etc., are vague terms when it comes to welding. The process used to production weld our frames is likely MIG welding. You can find a description of it here. http://www.kingsofwelding.com/guides/mig-welding-guide/

MIG welding is used because it's fast and can be taught to new welder at a basic level very quickly. However, learning to do MIG welds that have high integrity, consistently, takes experience and education.

When I looked at the welds on my Jeep, it appears they are done by low skilled laborers. Most automakers today use robots to weld high production, complex components. Robot welds are going to be very consistent. The crooked, irregular weld beads are a clue that they are welded by hand by low skilled welders. Spatter is a common by-product of MIG welding. It is not necessarily an indication that the weld is substandard. When you see a weld bead that looks straight and consistent, it is more likely to be a good, strong weld.

Google images for "bad weld" and "good weld" . That will tell you more than I can in words.

https://www.google.com/search?q=bad...-aXlAhURmeAKHfbpAcwQ_AUIEigB&biw=1920&bih=888

https://www.google.com/search?q=goo...Hc&ei=U8KpXeebGp3iswXxi6fADg&bih=888&biw=1920

Thank you for your response! It is much appreciated here. It’s hard to know what’s what with this investigation in terms of frame welds without being a true welder.

I understand, just by logic, that porous frame welds could have an impact on frame integrity but the “splash” & “slag” as noted in the article is what has mainly prompted the investigation into the frame portion. That’s really the portion I don’t understand but this does help.

Again while I don’t plan on ever really getting rid of the rig (it’ll be in the family for a long time) it is nice to know these things.

We all know most vehicles are terrible investments, the Jeep Wrangler, while great residuals, is no exception.

That being said, for those that may want to sell theirs down the line this investigation shouldn’t be taken lightly. A true Jeeper will know about this before going out and trying to find a rig private party down the line and if your welds have these indicators it may cost you. I’ve done similar checks (on other components) on certain year BMW’s when looking and passed on a few because of my findings.

For the folks mentioned above, use this thread as an informational/open discussion.

Interesting to see what the results will be in the end. I’ve read roughly 270,000 Jeep Wranglers between 18 & 19 are the scope of the investigation. Hopefully it will not be a mass total recall like the VW situation...

Thanks for taking your time and posting!

 

[BobW]

Local dealer replaced steering damper under recall for my '18 Rubi JLU

 

[Rubidozer]

Shhhhhhh!
If we stop discussing it, then maybe people will forget.

 

[TrailTorque]

Shhhhhhh!
If we stop discussing it, then maybe people will forget.

I wish that were the case but the news has made it very public at this point lol

 

[wibornz]

I wish that were the case but the news has made it very public at this point lol

It is only public in the Jeep community. If you were to ask "normal" folks, they might not even know what a wrangler is let alone any technical stuff. You know the people that call wranglers cars, hummers, trucks..etc....

And the weld issue was like a couple days of production. We are talking about a few thousand vehicles out of millions.

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