It's not that easy, for ex: I have a kid, donate, invest (losses), max out 401k fsa hsa and itemize my deductions to decrease my liability. Assuming you are single and don't do any of the above and just take standard deduction and if I were a betting man I would say yes.
Edit: I am not a CPA...
There's a great post someone made explaining in detail how it works, but it has nothing to do with refunds it's all about your tax liability. You just need to have at least 7500 of liability to get the full tax credit.
Getting 10k back just means you overpaid for that tax year