Jeep owners probably most prepared for Corona Virus

[Dkretden]

.7% mortality rate vs. .1% for seasonal flu. Agree completely with the "hype" assessment, and these numbers support that even better.

Seasonal flu kills about 500k people worldwide each year.
Call corona what you will. But, the raw numbers may look something like this (though it’s too early to tell):

1) globally the models seem to show that about 30% of the population will get it (that is down from the ”up to 60%” that models were showing).
2) The R-0 for Corona is something like 2.2 vs 1.3 for the seasonal flu.... that makes this corona virus much more contagious. About 70% more contagious.......
3) the death rates of about 0.7% for corona (vs 0.1% for the flu) seem to be true only for more developed countries with terrific healthcare systems.
4) underlying conditions of a population will change that stat..... diabetes, age, cardiovascular conditions, smoking, greatly increases the risk of death. The US does not score well as a population for things like diabetes, etc.

If we just say that this virus will be contracted by 30% of the global population and it kills 0.7% that is roughly 2.4b people infected and 17m people dead.

compare the 500k dead from seasonal flu to 17m people. ......... while it may be true that this virus is 7x more deadly than the flu, it’s also 70% more contagious....... that is were the body count may start to pile up........

will any of the above happen? Impossible to tell at this point. I personally don’t consider the information that we are getting from the science community hype. I do consider it a warning.

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[viper88]

Yeah, I was thinking of doubling down on BA.

I am thinking about possibly buying VXX options as a hedge?

 

[LLANERO]

compare the 500k dead from seasonal flu to 17m people. .........

Not saying which one is deadlier, but you are comparing yearly deaths vs total deaths...

 

[LLANERO]

Do regular bullets work on zombies?

Only if you shoot then in the head

 

[wibornz]

I wouldn’t. I heard they’re high in cholesterol...

The diet or the squirrel?

 

[Drytellsr]

The diet or the squirrel?

I'm visiting with my grandkids this weekend. I'm sure I'll contract something.

 

[viper88]

I'm visiting with my grandkids this weekend. I'm sure I'll contract something.

Only thing more germ and virus prone then kids are cruise ships. Take a Disney Cruise and you have the perfect storm. lol.

 

[DaltonGang]

I've survived 55 years, and never had a cold or the flu. My wife gets them all the time. So, I feel my immune system is pretty tough. But who knows how I would react to some Chinese engineered virus. I dont do well with MSG.

 

[Dkretden]

Not saying which one is deadlier, but you are comparing yearly deaths vs total deaths...

Totally correct. Thank you for pointing that out. Seasonal flu will kill the same 17m people in 34 years. IF the health models turn out to be true, this corona virus will kill 17m in a year or so.

one bright spot with this virus is that it’s RNA appears to be “stable” - it’s not morphing. Therefore, if you are infected with it and beat it off, you are likely immune from getting it again.

but, keep in mind, this corona virus doesn’t appear to be seasonal. It may not go away. So, again, if the health models are correct and no vaccine or other treatment comes along in the next year or two, the 70% who DIDN’T get it the first time will be potentially infected the second year as the virus just continues to circle the globe. Of course all of the models may be wrong and the virus might just burn out.

my personal belief is that the models are still too high. I didn’t think 17m will die in the first round. What is the number? I have no idea...... even if it’s 2/3 less.... call it “only” 5 million, that’s staggering.

my other concern is actually for the US. We are an “older” population that is not in the best of health - diabetes, cardiovascular, smoking, etc........ we may actually have more “severe” cases ....... a “severe” case (about 15% of the total) requires a respirator for oxygen...... supposedly we have 75,000 machines available for use in hospitals now. That may not be enough to treat 12m-15m severely ill folks in the us (300m population, 30% infection rate, 15% severe) especially since those machines are likely not all sitting idle now... they are hooked to existing patients with existing non-corona issues

 

[Huskywrangler]

Totally correct. Thank you for pointing that out. Seasonal flu will kill the same 17m people in 34 years. IF the health models turn out to be true, this corona virus will kill 17m in a year or so.

one bright spot with this virus is that it’s RNA appears to be “stable” - it’s not morphing. Therefore, if you are infected with it and beat it off, you are likely immune from getting it again.

Beat it off.. lol.

Kidding aside, I've read a few articles that speculate the number of people infected in China is closer to 500k which if true substantially lowers the mortality rate. What's interesting to is if China had not had such a high number at once would it even had been discovered as this new virius? Or would it be treated like a normal respiratory infection?

 

[Dkretden]

Beat it off.. lol.

Kidding aside, I've read a few articles that speculate the number of people infected in China is closer to 500k which if true substantially lowers the mortality rate. What's interesting to is if China had not had such a high number at once would it even had been discovered as this new virius? Or would it be treated like a normal respiratory infection?

Great points...... the numbers out of China are bogus..... I think that we can agree on that...... so, if you turn to places like Singapore, Italy, Japan, Korea, we we likely have better raw numbers. It’s too early to tell in those places but the numbers right now seem to be tracking the general death/severity percentages from China (outside of wuhan —- wuhan had a much higher death rate, the rest of China was lower)..... Italy right now is much higher than japan, Singapore, Korea...... it is unclear why Italy is so high. Korea is tracking at about 0.5% (5x deadlier than seasonal flu) ......

 

[Drveovru]

And this years winner for most outlandish thread title goes to.....

 

[jeepdabest]

The Death Wobble Have a Corona Virus is spreading with a 20% fatality rate. FCA recommends wearing surgical masks and latex gloves while driving. It should also remind everyone of their wedding night.

 

[JP 3.0]

The diet or the squirrel?

“Is your diet of non-gmo squirrels killing you? Find out tonight at 11”

 

[MSteeves]

Lots more deaths associated with the flu, especially this season.

Lots more deaths from the flu because there are lots more people coming down with it.

Flu's mortality rate is about .1%.

COVID-19's mortality rate varies somewhat, depending on location and medical resources available, as well as other actions being taken, such as 'social distancing'. It doesn't help that Trump and his acting secretary of Homeland Security have been getting it wrong.

https://khn.org/news/fact-check-coronavirus-homeland-security-chief-flu-mortality-rate/

https://www.statnews.com/2020/02/25...gh-coronavirus-fatality-rate-who-expert-says/


"There I was, in line at Walmart, backed up 20 deep, most of the self-checkers out of order. So I coughed several times, hard, and commented how bad I've been feeling since my trip to Hong Kong. Next thing I know, there was no line!"

Meanwhile ... wash yer hands, and buy more ammo, for when the zombies come pouring out of the cities, and make the best of it!

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