22 wrangler order date, vin and actual deliveries.

[mepwolv]

Ordered March 30th, took delivery July 15th. Picked it up myself and brought her back to Florida. I last owned a Jeep Wrangler in 1995... They have come a long way, what a fantastic vehicle. Also, Mark Dodge Jeep in Lake Charles, LA were a joy to work with. Just a great bunch of people.

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[Red_Rubi21]

Finally posting a photo of my new XR package. Ordered 4/3 picked up 7/1

 

[mardi]

How long is it taking for orders going from “shipped” status to ending at the dealership? Mine was shipped June 17th but it’s still showing on a truck in OH per my rep.

 

[bjm00se]

"[Jeep] had no plans of interrupting the production of sold orders for customers. Instead they we're going to be delaying inventory units for the dealerships."

Ah, that makes a lot of sense. So while they can't finish all the allocated MY22 VINS from now until 7/25 - they are planning on finishing the "customer sold order" VINS, and some dealer stock orders may be cancelled or converted to MY23.

That's really helpful!

 

[JDxr]

Finally posting a photo of my new XR package. Ordered 4/3 picked up 7/1

Where did you get your bull bar?

 

[Red_Rubi21]

It’s the Warn Low Winch Guard - I’ve had it for a few years with my other JL. Looks like it’s back ordered in quadratec currently

 

[JLTX254]

The 7 month journey is done. One ordered on 11/30, the other on 5/24. Both ended up coming in within a week of each other. Went with the second order today.

 

[Chris22]

I dunno guys. Got new data from @Ratbert build sheets through 7/5.

We've been told that Toledo will be shutdown on 7/25 for annual retooling. (Single source: https://www.detroitnews.com/story/b...-idle-week-july-4-summer-shutdown/7791876001/)

As of 7/5, Jeep still has 28,581 build sheets that we'd expect to be built. Throughout the model year, they've built an average of 733 jeeps per day (averaged across all days, including weekends) At this rate, they'll only complete 14664 of them.

That leaves about 13,917 jeep orders likely to be left unbuilt and rolled over to model-year 2023. Unless they somehow nearly DOUBLE the production rate, by adding additional overtime/shifts/weekends to produce an additional 696 jeeps-per-day from 7/5 thru 7/25, which seems unlikely.

So, as of 7/5, with about 28,000 jeeps waiting to be built, and a likely shortfall of about 14,000 jeeps, it seems like if your jeep isn't built yet, it's about a coin toss 50/50 that your order may be rolled over to be a 2023, (probably with a bias towards those 2000 June orders, which don't really seem to have started being built in any quantity)

Order month	Two week build count	7/5 Build Sheet Total	7/5 Remaining to Build	7/5 Days to Zero	7/5 Zero Date	% Complete
Oct	39	11,721	-183			101.25%
Nov	57	12,116	-27			99.75%
Dec	272	31,031	280	14	7/19/2022	98.24%
Jan	493	28,013	1,193	34	8/7/2022	94.23%
Feb	723	20,430	3,298	64	9/6/2022	83.05%
Mar	1,723	16,619	4,823	39	8/13/2022	69.47%
Apr	3,384	18,502	9,788	40	8/14/2022	53.44%
May	2,347	3,953	7,581	45	8/19/2022	13.92%
Jun	10	204	1,829			9.54%
			0
			0
Totals	9,048	142,589	28,581	44	8/18/22	83.30%
				39	8/12/22
	14	7/5/2022
		7/25/2022
		7/25 Shortfall	13,917

Thanks for the info!
I am waiting on an order that was placed in October 2021. Still haven’t heard from the dealer yet but I did get a build sheet on crypto stickers. Based on this chart should I assume this has now been built?

also what does the -183 represent? How can you have a negative number left to be built?

 

[bjm00se]

Thanks for the info!
I am waiting on an order that was placed in October 2021. Still haven’t heard from the dealer yet but I did get a build sheet on crypto stickers. Based on this chart should I assume this has now been built?

also what does the -183 represent? How can you have a negative number left to be built?

If you have a build sheet now, yes it means your jeep has been built, or is in process, and you should be able to get a window sticker as well soon.

As far as "-183" goes, it's all based on data from Ratbert. He uses crowdsourcing for data, to get a range of VINs for orders placed in a specific month. Then, queries against build sheet and window sticker servlets for previous years, to find that not all possible VINS ever received a build sheet, only roughly 95% of VINS ever get a build sheet. So we use that to get a heuristic for the number of Jeeps we expect to be built. But it's a heuristic, and in the case of October orders, it undershoots the mark a bit, and so as of 7/5 183 MORE October ordered Jeeps have been built than the "95%" heuristic would suggest.

 

[Rizzo44]

I asked my dealer about the pending factory shutdown, and how it would affect my 12/24 order. His response:

I was recently on the Factory call with Jeep. They had no plans of interrupting the production of sold orders for customers. Instead they we're going to be delaying inventory units for the dealerships. From what I see most orders are being burned through this week. I've had 10 orders move from D1 to G status so they're moving through them fairly quickly.

Okay probably a dumb question, and it is coming from my wishful thinking. Does "no plans of interrupting sold orders" mean they aren't doing the shut down? I'm assuming I'm wrong there lol. Assuming that means they just will be getting them done before they do dealer inventory. I had to ask!

 

[bjm00se]

Okay probably a dumb question, and it is coming from my wishful thinking. Does "no plans of interrupting sold orders" mean they aren't doing the shut down? I'm assuming I'm wrong there lol. Assuming that means they just will be getting them done before they do dealer inventory. I had to ask!

They *have* to do a end-of-year shutdown to get ready for model year '23.

And the date seems to be fixed.

So I read the quote as Toledo finishing up the sold orders for '22 and converting/delaying/"interrupting" dealer stock orders, since there's not enough time between now and 7/25 to actually build all the outstanding remaining '22 order sheets.

That's just my interpretation though. That and six bucks will get you an iced-coffee drink at Starbucks.

 

[Rizzo44]

They *have* to do a end-of-year shutdown to get ready for model year '23.

And the date seems to be fixed.

So I read the quote as Toledo finishing up the sold orders for '22 and converting/delaying/"interrupting" dealer stock orders, since there's not enough time between now and 7/25 to actually build all the outstanding remaining '22 order sheets.

That's just my interpretation though. That and six bucks will get you an iced-coffee drink at Starbucks.

Makes sense. Thank you!

 

[Bpieroway]

Finally here after 7 effing months. I want to start out with a big F Stellantis!

Order: 12/13/21
Delivery: 7/13/22

Awesome!! Congrats! I am soooo jealous. She is a beauty!! Nov20th still in d1. Faaaack

 

[Chris22]

If you have a build sheet now, yes it means your jeep has been built, or is in process, and you should be able to get a window sticker as well soon.

As far as "-183" goes, it's all based on data from Ratbert. He uses crowdsourcing for data, to get a range of VINs for orders placed in a specific month. Then, queries against build sheet and window sticker servlets for previous years, to find that not all possible VINS ever received a build sheet, only roughly 95% of VINS ever get a build sheet. So we use that to get a heuristic for the number of Jeeps we expect to be built. But it's a heuristic, and in the case of October orders, it undershoots the mark a bit, and so as of 7/5 183 MORE October ordered Jeeps have been built than the "95%" heuristic would suggest.

Awesome!

thanks for the clarification

 

[kkellyy15]

My tracker has been updated as of this morning!

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