Aftermarket Prices - will summer bring down prices?

[Evergreen]

I know we are in record Territory for inflation and in low supply. However I was looking to purchase the following bumper this last summer for $560 and now it is almost $900. That is a 48% price increase!

So here is my question - do prices drop in the spring/summer?

https://ruggedridge.com/p/rugged-ri...KmJFBGi1hIc7ZocYWLBmmyx_gwYfLVGYaAn3FEALw_wcB

Sponsored

 

[aldo98229]

Firstly, we are not in "record territory for inflation." The last official figure was 6.2%. While that is significantly higher than the 2% we have been used to in recent decades, US inflation was 18%-22% in the late 1970s through the early 1980s.

Secondly, according to the "experts," the latest prediction is that the current shortages should remain for the entire 2022, and perhaps run into 2023. Of course the same experts were predicting that these shortages would end in 2021, so that tells you how much they really know...

Global events will determine how our supply lines fare through the year. COVID appears to be in its last legs; thank God! Separately, the more the Chinese government starts acting up, the greater the incentive for many manufacturers to pull their supply lines out of China.

In any event, I highly doubt any of this will resolve itself by summer.

 

[BruceA78]

Prices of raw material have been going up, not sure they will ever go down but if they do it will still take a bit for the aftermarket places to adjust their prices down. I wouldn't hold out any hope that prices will go down this summer.

 

[TeraFlex]

The cost of raw materials (aluminum, steel, rubber, etc) shipping, employee wages/care, and a bunch of other factors have driven up costs; in some examples upwards of 200% above pre 2020/Covid19 levels. Unfortunately these costs are not going down, and in fact most are continuing to rise with time. Prices may temporarily dip with sales and promos, but the realistic reality is the increased costs are going to be the new norm unless a large market crash/shift dictates otherwise.

 

[vegasblue]

I will tell you I'm in the construction industry, electrical. Steel right now is more expensive than aluminum. Aluminum wire is 1/3 the price of copper. Lead times are now being extended out to 30 weeks. Even if I pay expediting fees, there is zero guarantee of delivery. We used to give a 30 day price guarantee, now it's 48 hours.

I hate to say it, but hold on to your britches because it's going to get worse. We have not begun to feel the pain yet. The ripples will turn to swells will turn to waves....

 

[clickclickboom]

The bumper will not drop in price to what it was 20 yrs ago and it won't drop in price to it was 6mo ago.

 

[JABCAT]

While costs have gone up, I think there are some who are also taking advantage of the times by drastically increasing prices. That said, I think there is definitely a "Wrangler tax" on parts especially when you look at some of the parts & their prices, e.g. winch plates for $200+ or $1,000 side steps/rock rails, etc.

 

[Evergreen]

Sorry I should’ve been a little bit more clear my question. I’m not looking for an outlook on the economy. Just asking if prices typically dip down in the spring or summer months.

 

[MRMDFY]

Sorry I should’ve been a little bit more clear my question. I’m not looking for an outlook on the economy. Just asking if prices typically dip down in the spring or summer months.

So you're asking people to ignore the present economic reality and just sort of give you an answer based on an economic "norm" that existed at some other point in time?

 

[aldo98229]

Sorry I should’ve been a little bit more clear my question. I’m not looking for an outlook on the economy. Just asking if prices typically dip down in the spring or summer months.

I don't think so. January and February are normally the slowest months in the auto market. Most households are overspent from the holidays.

Things start picking up with tax refunds. By Memorial Weekend, the car business is usually back in full swing.

 

[Evergreen]

So you're asking people to ignore the present economic reality and just sort of give you an answer based on an economic "norm" that existed at some other point in time?

Yes so I can judge if prices “might” go down. Just like TVs over Black Friday or tools during Father’s Day.

 

[Evergreen]

I don't think so. January and February are normally the slowest months in the auto market. Most households are overspent from the holidays.

Things start picking up with tax refunds. By Memorial Weekend, the car business is usually back in full swing.

Thanks!

 

[Birdsong]

Shipping costs will not go down, a 40' container that cost $1500 to go from China to the US in 2019, cost upwards of $21,000 now. The ocean freight companies know that demand is greater than the supply for space on these ships and are continually raising prices.

 

[Cajun21]

IMHO you may just want to do a little more research and look for another type of bumper-too many out here to settle, yet everything is going to be expensive and besides when has anything for a wrangler been cheap. Good Luck on your decision.

 

[AlgUSF]

Things start picking up with tax refunds. By Memorial Weekend, the car business is usually back in full swing.

Except that they pre-funded the child credit tax refunds this year unless you opted to not have them send you the refund early. It defaulted to "pay me now".

Edit: I think it's anyone's guess what happens this year. There is no rational explanation for this year, who'd have thought tech stocks would have gone parabolic and the rise of crypto. I've never had a new car go UP in value after I bought it.

Sponsored